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2014/15 Winter Banter and General Observations


Baroclinic Zone

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Those temps are also below average even if you took them at face value. You have to remember that a place like CEF at the floor of the valley still has avg high around 35-36F

Yeah I thought that looked plenty cold. Highs in the 30s, lows in the teens. That strikes me as cold temps for parts of SNE.

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Yeah I thought that looked plenty cold. Highs in the 30s, lows in the teens. That strikes me as cold temps for parts of SNE.

It is but for the 7 day period 3 of the days have above normal high's and is bereft of precipatation. Nothing to write home about IMO.

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So that's your call?

I do think we warm up mid month into late month.   Too many factors working against us.  Crappy MJO 4-6, possible +AO and a almost definite positive NAO. If that SE ridge stays there, it's cutter city with no blocking...  -EPO is great, but there's been some warmth months with that, see Jan 91 and Jan 93. I Hope I'm wrong of course.

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I haven't looked at a weather forecast in about 8 days, so imagine my surprise when it was raining this morning.

Awesome. Let's keep the wet trend going. How much rain can we get the season? I can't wait to see!

you can tell the weather without a weather man the day before by watching the wind, the glass, the clouds, pretty obvious a front was approaching and precipitation coming.
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This is why its the banter thread where posters can come in and cancel winter, At least it keeps most of the garbage out of the other threads

I don't think anyone is canceling winter but it's been poor, continues to look poor in the reliable future and the statistics from a historic perspective point to much larger odds of it being a turd in SNE then a record breaker.

your area is a whole different ball of wax.

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I don't think anyone is canceling winter but it's been poor, continues to look poor in the reliable future and the statistics from a historic perspective point to much larger odds of it being a turd in SNE then a record breaker.

your area is a whole different ball of wax.

 

Well to read a few in here and over the last few days Scott, It sure sounds like some are tossing in the towel, I am not to concerned right now up here as we will get some shots over the next few weeks, If we end up losing Jan, Different story though as that is our snowiest month, A back loaded winter for what i do is not as helpful as the days get longer and the sun angle changes and starts melting the high ground

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you can tell the weather without a weather man the day before by watching the wind, the glass, the clouds, pretty obvious a front was approaching and precipitation coming.

lol.  Unlike many, I just moved about my business, and really was not paying attention.  Too much going on. 

Watching the glass?  What does the glass do as the front approaches.  Never heard that one before.

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lol. Unlike many, I just moved about my business, and really was not paying attention. Too much going on.

Watching the glass? What does the glass do as the front approaches. Never heard that one before.

glass is slang for Barometer, unlike many? some are weather aware and some are not. Guess its just in my genes to stay aware.
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Highs in the 30s, lows in the teens. That strikes me as cold temps for parts of SNE.

We're just about at the climo min. A 30/10 day at BDL wouldn't even be a double digit negative departure at this point. Highs in the 30s with lows in the upper teens is pretty close to normal this time of year, even in Connecticut.
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Is it really a pattern change if we go cold 10 days and the. Resume the warm pattern? Sounds like a breakdown of the warm pattern before a reload

Look at the 500 mb pattern 1/2 and compare it to 12/22.

So no. Many people have given plausible reasons why sometimes good patterns go bad and if that happens, perhaps you then can say seasonal patterns tend to find the same place regardless of change in the long wave configuration.

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Well to read a few in here and over the last few days Scott, It sure sounds like some are tossing in the towel, I am not to concerned right now up here as we will get some shots over the next few weeks, If we end up losing Jan, Different story though as that is our snowiest month, A back loaded winter for what i do is not as helpful as the days get longer and the sun angle changes and starts melting the high ground

 

One thing the last decade or so has taught us is our patterns are volatile and can flip from one extreme to the other.  The statistics IMO are very grim from a pure numbers standpoint but there were some good years in those that started off this poorly too.  And I put a little less stock in the numbers as I do believe this current decade or so is more volatile than the decades/century prior. 

 

What comes will come, is the way it is we cannot change it we can only try to enjoy it.   I hold out much hope for an extended period of good winter weather but based on history I wouldn't be surprised at all if this winter mostly stinks aside of some OES systems down this way, glancing blows and then snow to rain.

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Nice! I got one a few months ago and I can't believe I waited so long to do it. Which brand did you get?

It was Sony. My parents gave it to me after hearing me complain I don't have a great stereo. I can still get the little speakers to really make it surround , but the sound bar and woofer sound awesome.

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It was Sony. My parents gave it to me after hearing me complain I don't have a great stereo. I can still get the little speakers to really make it surround , but the sound bar and woofer sound awesome.

Nice I got a decent LG bar/subwoofer on sale and it's great. A friend of mine has one of those Sonos systems and they're incredible... Freaking expensive though.

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Steve, I'll respond in here so as to not clutter up the discussion thread. A "wut" response is not an explanation. Sure you may have stated your thoughts somewhere else but that type of response is not what we are looking for and will get removed. We let the December thread slide at the end since many here are upset over the lack of snow in this month but we are nearing a new month and are really stepping up our moderation efforts and won't be hesitant to remove posts we feel are off topic, trolling, or just plain nonsense.

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Steve, I'll respond in here so as to not clutter up the discussion thread. A "wut" response is not an explanation. Sure you may have stated your thoughts somewhere else but that type of response is not what we are looking for and will get removed. We let the December thread slide at the end since many here are upset over the lack of snow in this month but we are nearing a new month and are really stepping up our moderation efforts and won't be hesitant to remove posts we feel are off topic, trolling, or just plain nonsense.

 

We are going to do our best to delete any post in that thread that doesn't include reasonable model analysis or a science/meteorology based post. This thread can be a free-for-all but that thread needs to be more science based. The last couple "analysis" threads have turned into absolute debacles. 

 

I have no problem handing out warnings for people who stray OT in those threads if we can't self-police it a lot better. I think people would be shocked if they saw the number of posts that mods delete or move. 

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