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2014/15 Winter Banter and General Observations


Baroclinic Zone

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Dude, you got like 8 inches in the November event.

 

Sorry you didn't break Nov 1898's record of 24".

Well by tease I don't mean we got 2".  What I meant was that people that received a healthy dose of snow said to themselves (at least me anyway) "wow we got 8" on thanksgiving, that must mean December is going to be amazing!"....when it turns out it was a dud.  It also doesn't help that I believe a Met on the local news said "uh oh snowy November....that means we have a good chance of a snowy winter".....I just get sucked in by the rhetoric and can't pull myself away! Even if I know it's all a farce. 

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Well by tease I don't mean we got 2".  What I meant was that people that received a healthy dose of snow said to themselves (at least me anyway) "wow we got 8" on thanksgiving, that must mean December is going to be amazing!"....when it turns out it was a dud.  It also doesn't help that I believe a Met on the local news said "uh oh snowy November....that means we have a good chance of a snowy winter".....I just get sucked in by the rhetoric and can't pull myself away! Even if I know it's all a farce. 

 

 

Well the winter is only 3 weeks in...so lets not start calling the games with 12 minutes to go in the 2nd quarter.

 

If we keep getting nothing through late-January and the outlook is putrid, then I think it would be fair to start getting on the debby train.

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Well because when people find some sort of a connection, sometimes they roll with it. It's the same with the October snow myth. It fits BOS in a small sample size, but not ORH.  Having that discrepancy over that small of a geographical range, makes the October snow myth garbage. You can't say "oh it works for BOS, but not ORH...but it still works." No no, weather doesn't work like that. That myth was supposed to foretell a bad winter. That means it foretells a bad North American pattern...it can't dictate something as small scale as that, like BOS having a bad winter, but not ORH.

October snows greater than 7" in ORH 100% are followed by bad winters
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Yet some of them b**ch , moan, and complain to the nth degree about the lack of QPF,

I still will always think there's something to the QPF...it's what you grow up dealing with in the deep interior. Getting good precip in coastals and not smoking cirrus. The folks on the coastal plain don't get it cause they have plenty of moisture, but worry about temps/coastal fronts/rain, etc. the deep interior isn't worried about that stuff, it's getting enough precip. It's all relevant to your location. Spend a few winters on the NW edge and I bet most would be more concerned with QPF than temps. Though I also get why it annoys some folks on the coast who turn to rain. But when temps are of no concern, forecasting snow is often largely based on ratios and QPF.

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