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2014/15 Winter Banter and General Observations


Baroclinic Zone

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Did you read what Tip said in the other thread...models just deleted the EPO last night...hopefully it's a blip, but it's of concern...of course for you and Will given your location, it's not as big of a deal as further south

 

Not entirely so ... It is still negative, as I wrote, just no where near the magnitude of the previous, multi-day signal. Also, I wasn't really speaking directly to the synoptics on the weather charts.  Although ... yeah, you certainly can see the manifestation of the teleconnectors from time to time. 

 

It is not always easy to see that though, because remember... the teles are derived by the grids of many members combined, where as the operational runs are but a single member.  So if the mode in the EPO shifts among the majority, the one member might or might not reflect that same characteristic.

 

Also, it is important to note:  the CDC calculates their indexes via lower tropospheric wind flux anomalies.  That may or may not lend very well to the mid level anomaly distribution.  In theory it should ...seeing as mass is always conserved. But nuances in the placement of features has a say in matters as well ... 

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Down here, we have between 3-4" of snow.which isn't terrible YTD.

What's exacerbating the perception of it being the worst start to winter (ever to some..lol) is this grinch storm, and the fact that the long range still appears in flux. take a step away from the models for a week, brave the two cutters we have to endure, albeit during the worst time possible, and take it like champs. come back Jan 1st and things may look different.

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Down here, we have between 3-4" of snow.which isn't terrible YTD.

What's exacerbating the perception of it being the worst start to winter (ever to some..lol) is this grinch storm, and the fact that the long range still appears in flux. take a step away from the models for a week, brave the two cutters we have to endure, albeit during the worst time possible, and take it like champs. come back Jan 1st and things may look different.

I think most people have pretty much come to terms with the Grinch storm. That has been expected for a while now.

I think the current worry is the pattern is going to change, but it may be transient or not all that favorable. I personally am not putting stock in long term models at this point, as they have been awful.

I dont think it's really worth looking at what say 1/5 or 1/10 and beyond will look like right now.

I'm kind of in the same boat as a lot of others here that have mentioned it. I think expectations will need to be scaled back big time if by 1/10 we haven't had a plowable event.

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Down here, we have between 3-4" of snow.which isn't terrible YTD.

What's exacerbating the perception of it being the worst start to winter (ever to some..lol) is this grinch storm, and the fact that the long range still appears in flux. take a step away from the models for a week, brave the two cutters we have to endure, albeit during the worst time possible, and take it like champs. come back Jan 1st and things may look different.

 

You must be a newbie to this particular blogosphere ... 

 

Good luck getting that recourse through to this group of heroine addicts...

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I dont think it's really worth looking at what say 1/5 or 1/10 and beyond will look like right now.

I'm kind of in the same boat as a lot of others here that have mentioned it. I think expectations will need to be scaled back big time if by 1/10 we haven't had a plowable event.

I suppose...were people actually expecting a blockbuster winter? I was just hoping for an average to slightly above. I know weak el-nino's often deliver, but I remember reading that they are usually back-loaded..so I guess I'm not sure why the panic by some. Sure, if it's late Jan and we are still in the same boat, I suppose we can readjust our expectations to below average. Obviously there are more factors that go into a seasonal forecast, or into the dissection of a mid/long range pattern. I've noticed some weenies on here do some really bad interpretations of met analysis, and also tend to throw out these terms (that they likely don't fully comprehend) in order to support their stance of 'winter cancel' or 'best winter ever incom1ng!!" bipolar weenies are a real joy to read. I do fear for the mental/emotional state of some of them.

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Rip joe cocker. I was mistaken for him by 2 high as a kite guys in an LA supermarket close to 30 years ago. The dudes are laughing and pointing at me and I was getting annoyed. Finally when we passed each other one of them says to me "hey man he thinks you're joe cocker". Not missing a beat as I walked past in my best joe cocker imitation I say " I am joe cocker" and kept walking.

I want snow...soon!

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I suppose...were people actually expecting a blockbuster winter? I was just hoping for an average to slightly above. I know weak el-nino's often deliver, but I remember reading that they are usually back-loaded..so I guess I'm not sure why the panic by some. Sure, if it's late Jan and we are still in the same boat, I suppose we can readjust our expectations to below average. Obviously there are more factors that go into a seasonal forecast, or into the dissection of a mid/long range pattern. I've noticed some weenies on here do some really bad interpretations of met analysis, and also tend to throw out these terms (that they likely don't fully comprehend) in order to support their stance of 'winter cancel' or 'best winter ever incom1ng!!" bipolar weenies are a real joy to read. I do fear for the mental/emotional state of some of them.

I think the problem is people slightly spin what mets say trying to bait them into giving them a favorable forecast or something. When mets call for something unfavorable here they receive backlash. Or if a get an inch of snow the AWT comments start flying.

I think by 1/10 we will know whrt this is headed. If we have nothing by that point and guidance is meh at that time, I think expectations will come down. The general consesus that I got from the forum was slightly above average snowfall

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I for one didn't think this would be a typical mild starting el nino winter...It's down there with 1986 and 1965 winters...I don't think it will be a shut out like 1972-73 or 1997-98...I always thought February will be the best for snow lovers and now I have to hope that part works out...

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Nothing looks dire for your location in Westminster in the upcoming pattern. lol

Well if some of these potential over running situations work out we may be singing a different tune....just think negative and you won't be disappointed is a path some forum members take and I'm leaning that way!  The weather is what it is...but I'll still let my emotions get in the way :)

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Oh I love this post!  Lichtenstein.  How'd you even know how to Spell that?  (I can't spell Anything so....)  The Lichtenstein Polka is actually a great one FYI even though I stay away from that genre.  

Please do not hesitate to RSVP for the New Years Eve Soiree being held at the Vodka Cole Lounge....some of the attractions

 

 Many weather luminaries will be in attendance

 

 Party Games: "Where in the World is the Polar Vortex?"

 

 JB presentation on winter 15-16...."May the Vortex be With You "

 

 Special guest appearance by Gene Kelly ......Singing in the Rain sing along

 

 Special guest appearance by Frank Sinatra singing "El Nino State of Mind"

 

 Please note this event is BYOSG.....

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