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2014/15 Winter Banter and General Observations


Baroclinic Zone

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Man, if you would have told me near normal temps and large positive precip anomalies for December, I would have been stoked.....yet virtually snowless.

Terrible luck.

 

The pattern at H5 was all I needed to see. I know people were somehow happy to have 40-45 instead of 55, but whoopee. 

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The pattern at H5 was all I needed to see. I know people were somehow happy to have 40-45 instead of 55, but whoopee. 

I just meant from looking at the departures in hindsight.

 

As for the H5, you have to admit that we've had some bad luck, too....I  mean, there have been worse patterns. Normally these "tepid" lol patterns wil allow you to run into a couple of inches here or there.

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Man, if you would have told me near normal temps and large positive precip anomalies for December, I would have been stoked.....yet virtually snowless.

Terrible luck.

That sounds like us last January. Above normal precip and ok temps yet one of the least snowiest January's on record at the mointain. Bad luck.
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I just meant from looking at the departures in hindsight.

 

As for the H5, you have to admit that we've had some bad luck, too....I  mean, there have been worse patterns. Normally these "tepid" lol patterns wil allow you to run into a couple of inches here or there.

 

I agree, but that zonal flow and blowtorch Canada meant my goose was cooked. I'm speaking for my area. Without cold, forget it. 

 

I do agree that normally you probably would be good for a moderate event, especially by you given these temp departures.

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I just meant from looking at the departures in hindsight.

 

As for the H5, you have to admit that we've had some bad luck, too....I  mean, there have been worse patterns. Normally these "tepid" lol patterns wil allow you to run into a couple of inches here or there.

I agree, we didn't miss a moderate event on Dec 9-10 by very much...some unlucky timing of the shortwaves (we got the delayed version which screwed us..so you got an anomalous 6-8 hour ice event instead of snow)...though for Scott's own BY, I can see how it didn't really matter...that's a brutal place in December without a very stout pattern fueled with arctic air (then it can be a great place).

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this just cements my belief that most here have no idea what they're looking at

 

Well to be fair, I don't expect people do really understand everything.  It wasn't far from here where they made out fairly well. But, that pattern was all I needed to see for BOS. You can't get away with that in December around here.

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On the immedate cp, it was obvious because they need a perfect pattern in December, but bad luck played a role from my area points inland.

Not so much that most didn't know what they were looking at, so much as most don't live right on the ocean.

 

 I definitely agree with the bad luck, but you could also say a pattern like that makes it a little easier for things to go wrong, too.

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I think in the end it is semantics...clearly the pattern wasn't very good...but an easier way to look at it might be:

A Dec 1-20, 2006 pattern in ORH is much more likely to produce 1 inch or less of total snowfall than the Dec 1-20 pattern in 2014. Yet, they both achieved that dubious statistic. There's your luck component.

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I think in the end it is semantics...clearly the pattern wasn't very good...but an easier way to look at it might be:

A Dec 1-20, 2006 pattern in ORH is much more likely to produce 1 inch or less of total snowfall than the Dec 1-20 pattern in 2014. Yet, they both achieved that dubious statistic. There's your luck component.

 

Well for ORH no question. Look at Kevin..lol.  But these patterns in general make you have to utilize a little fairy dust and when that happens sometimes things don't work out. In 2006 these was little hope. Same with 2011. You just knew.

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Well for ORH no question. Look at Kevin..lol.  But these patterns in general make you have to utilize a little fairy dust and when that happens sometimes things don't work out. In 2006 these was little hope. Same with 2011. You just knew.

I still think the worst pattern we got a widespread advisory to low end warning event out of was the first half of Dec 2001...right in the middle of that we somehow got a good event:

compday_3_ODI8_HCys_H.gif

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I still think the worst pattern we got a widespread advisory to low end warning event out of was the first half of Dec 2001...right in the middle of that we somehow got a good event:

compday_3_ODI8_HCys_H.gif

 

Yeah even the coast north of the Cape did ok. Funny thing about that month was that we had that cold shot after Christmas..even enough to ice up the ponds.  It wasn't bitter, but there were snow showers on WSW winds over the Cape.  

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Well, the sun just peeked through the overcast for the first time in 10 days. It was short lived, but nice to see nonetheless. I feel like I've been living in the Aleutian Islands lately. In fact, the weather probably hasn't been too much different from there, lots of overcast weather, rain and snow events, but no arctic outbreaks or torches.

 

Today's 1.8" puts me at an even 23" for the season, which is a good start. If it weren't for the 12.5" on 11/26, we'd probably be pretty close to average to this point.

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I don't get it. i didn't think it was a bad pattern for the interior

 

I think that's Will's point. It wasn't necessarily a terrible pattern for the interior for the first three weeks of December, but it still produced nothing. Compared to actually terrible patterns for the interior which also produced nothing.

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