Winter Pattern Discussion 2014-2015 (December/January)

[jaxjagman]

WxSouth

1 hr ·

European model still brings a big Texas storm through Georgia and then up the East Coast next weekend, and this track (if it's right) would hammer the Tennessee Valley,Kentucky, the Apps, and allow some damming ICE in interior VA and NC as well, with severe storms possible in southern parts of Georgia, Alabama and Florida. But all the models are not handling the vortex in the Northeast correctly , in my opinion, and this will mean everything on the ultimate track of the storm. I can't show exact European Model raw data due to legal reasons, so here's a simulation: Note: some very heavy wet snow on the northwest side of the track with foot totals possible. Subject to change at this stage though.

 

WXSouth

[jaxjagman]

 

Some splitting down to 70hpa is being forecasted by the euro

 

 

Also signs at 50hpa

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Carvers Gap]

0z Euro is pretty wound up w/ apparent snows this next weekend for the central and western ends of the Valley. 6z GFS is less organized and slides across the south with barely a wimper. It seems to jump on the next storm. Either way, things are about to get interesting. Seems like the Euro has been more consistent.

[Carvers Gap]

6z GFS was really cold late in its run. Pattern shift shown on it.

[tnweathernut]

I am loving the consistency on the Euro at this point, but what I am NOT loving, is the look of a Miller B.  The ensembles looked fairly Miller A'ish up through 120, but the 144 panel is definitely Miller B'ish even though it has the "look" of a primary from east central Louisana to Myrtle Beach.  If you could just attain that track, without sending a piece up through northern GA, eastern TN, I think we'd be looking at a really good snow for central TN and possibly parts of east TN too.  

 

West TN still has a pretty good chance to get smoked, and a good chunk of Kentucky too.  If we are going to get to more of TN with a better chance at snow, we have to have a more consolidated looking Miller A on future runs and a 50/50 that tightens and holds on just a bit longer.  

 

Seems like grasping at straws (for east TN) with the Euro seemingly locked in, but central TN should keep an eye on this one and west TN...............well..................you have something sizable to track.

[jaxjagman]

 

GEFS is more surpressed with the system than the GFS for this weekend

 

 

 

[jaxjagman]

 

Euro eps looks close to the GEFS.Plus like Carver mentioned earlier is more wrapped up.

[1234snow]

I am loving the consistency on the Euro at this point, but what I am NOT loving, is the look of a Miller B. The ensembles looked fairly Miller A'ish up through 120, but the 144 panel is definitely Miller B'ish even though it has the "look" of a primary from east central Louisana to Myrtle Beach. If you could just attain that track, without sending a piece up through northern GA, eastern TN, I think we'd be looking at a really good snow for central TN and possibly parts of east TN too.

West TN still has a pretty good chance to get smoked, and a good chunk of Kentucky too. If we are going to get to more of TN with a better chance at snow, we have to have a more consolidated looking Miller A on future runs and a 50/50 that tightens and holds on just a bit longer.

Seems like grasping at straws (for east TN) with the Euro seemingly locked in, but central TN should keep an eye on this one and west TN...............well..................you have something sizable to track.

Yeah the miller B type flooded us with warm air on the 0z Euro. Even though the trough axis was south of us a lot of energy snuck to our northwest which allowed the Miller B solution. Going to be tough to get snow out of this one in the valley. Jax and places out to his west will have a better chance with the cold air filtering in on the backside.

12z GFS is in and it still looks lost. It seems to be even weaker than past runs. Basically no storm just some light showers. I really think the GFS is too weak.

[tnweathernut]

Yeah the miller B type flooded us with warm air on the 0z Euro. Even though the trough axis was south of us a lot of energy snuck to our northwest which allowed the Miller B solution. Going to be tough to get snow out of this one in the valley. Jax and places out to his west will have a better chance with the cold air filtering in on the backside.

12z GFS is in and it still looks lost. It seems to be even weaker than past runs. Basically no storm just some light showers. I really think the GFS is too weak.

The GFS gets lost ALL the time when a southern low is involved.  The para is better on track, but still lost on intensity IMO.  I don't think the eastern valley has much of a chance unfortunately, since most modeling shows a cold temperature sucking appendage coming at us or even north of us.  Hoping west and parts of middle TN can score.

I am also not digging the look of the longer range all the sudden.  Seems wonky with how it's progressing, but if we can get into cold and legit chances for snow and ice by early January the wait will be worth it, especially if the pattern sticks around in repeating fashion.

[tnweathernut]

sizeable changes in the 12z Euro, shows a weaker system that gets going later (Miller A'ish, although I still see an appendage northwest of the main low).  Interesting.........

[tnweathernut]

Stronger 50/50 FTW............  Looks to hold in a little longer and is a little stronger, forcing everything to stay further south. Should be a better snow solution for a larger part of TN.  

[Chattownsnow]

yeah the new EURO is interesting. Should perk the southeast forum up a bit lol

[tnweathernut]

yeah the new EURO is interesting. Should perk the southeast forum up a bit lol

Turns out it is better for more people in TN, but very weak with wintry precip over the state.  Best I could find was general 2-4" across a good part of the state - picture in your mind best snows from around Jackson ENE into the Tazewell, TN area (except the dreaded eastern valley into ne TN..........warm nose anyone..........with a lolipop of 5ish a couple of places around the plateau.  

 

I am too lazy to look at temp profiles at this point and just assume the snow maps are likely off and will undoubtedly change numerous times in the coming days.

[deltadog03]

More ideas/thoughts on My Facebook page, but sounds like the 12 euro was a little better for y'all.  

 

https://www.facebook.com/pages/Wxmanchris/690966551001476?ref=hl

[1234snow]

Stronger 50/50 FTW............ Looks to hold in a little longer and is a little stronger, forcing everything to stay further south. Should be a better snow solution for a larger part of TN.

It was a better run. The low was weaker and further south and therefore colder. Pretty good looking for most of TN and especially for our friends east of the mountains (I doubt it would be all snow like the flawed clown maps show). I think this solution has a better chance of happening than all of the other solutions. Not too wound up and not too weak. I would certainly take the trade off of system with less precip but colder air to work with.

[tnweathernut]

I like where the Euro is heading, even if the Christmas storm doesn't look to produce.  LONG ways off and I wonder what will change between now and then, but the look of a TON of ridging off the west coast, and a -NAO, with the coldest of air getting shoved southeast means we likely cash in sometime in the next 1-3 weeks.

[Mr Bob]

It's walking a tightrope...maybe more of an elevation eveent with the great valley not getting anything...I would like to see it be less edgy for BNA too...could be a severe disappointment with marginal cold. Interesting development on the following storm too...perhaps some upslope in the wake of the storm on Christmas morning although the usual Day 10 boulder of salt....

[Mr Bob]

I like where the Euro is heading, even if the Christmas storm doesn't look to produce.  LONG ways off and I wonder what will change between now and then, but the look of a TON of ridging off the west coast, and a -NAO, with the coldest of air getting shoved southeast means we likely cash in sometime in the next 1-3 weeks.

With stronger cold coming down to the lower 48 at the end of the month and the energized southern branch....it would feel like an upset for someone not to get something...

[jaxjagman]

It's walking a tightrope...maybe more of an elevation eveent with the great valley not getting anything...I would like to see it be less edgy for BNA too...could be a severe disappointment with marginal cold. Interesting development on the following storm too...perhaps some upslope in the wake of the storm on Christmas morning although the usual Day 10 boulder of salt....

Yup,i agree,there's no wiggle room other than down with the surface temps the Euro showed for BNA

[John1122]

I'm still waiting on Wednesday/Thursday runs before getting overly excited. Though I'm not sure how often the Euro has missed when it's been this consistent for this long at this range. 

 

The 00z last night was historic for NW Tennessee, so this solution is a bit of a change I guess.

[BNAwx]

What we need is another January '88 event for the TN Valley & Southeast.  They said that was a 20 yr. type of storm so I think we're overdue..

[tnweathernut]

I'm still waiting on Wednesday/Thursday runs before getting overly excited. Though I'm not sure how often the Euro has missed when it's been this consistent for this long at this range. 

 

The 00z last night was historic for NW Tennessee, so this solution is a bit of a change I guess.

The control run looked like the 12z yesterday (big west and west central TN snows.  Most of the individual ensembles were well west of today's 12z Euro OP too.  I think it was a hiccup for the OP, but will be interesting to see what the 0z runs have to say. (not that i will be up for them, lol)

[tnweathernut]

What we need is another January '88 event for the TN Valley & Southeast.  They said that was a 20 yr. type of storm so I think we're overdue..

I agree and I think we will have an opportunity at a very widespread TN snow sometime between now and the 15th of January.

[jaxjagman]

Maybe we'll get a little snow from Thursdays piece,the CFSv2 is showing .10 qpfs for BNA,the GFSP shows at least a dusting maybe Thursday morning,a little teaser?

[John1122]

^{MRX seems to be splitting it down the middle and pretty much giving me a rain/snow forecast with marginal temps for either event. Said if the Euro was true, more snow, if the GFS, no snow essentially.}

[jaxjagman]

[jaxjagman]

 

GFSP  ?

[1234snow]

spc.png

Looks like NOAA/WPC is liking a Miller A track. That is some good news. 0z hasn't changed any from past runs. Weaker and warmer than the Euro. The Para GFS is beefier than the regular GFS. This will be a good test to see if the new GFS is getting any better.

Numerical Model Prediction Tropical Tidbits.png

GFSP ?

Yeah the 0z Para GFS has a monster bomb!

500mb Vorts:

Hour 192:

Hour 207:

Surface maps:

Hour 210:

Hour 219:

[1234snow]

Big differences for the Christmas storm on the GFS and its new cousin(Para).

0z GFS on the left and 0z Para GFS on the right.

Of course this is still a long way off but the cold shot will be real this time no matter the smaller details. This is the time period we have been pointing at since the start of the month. We will finally have cold air originating from the poles (cross polar flow).

Now for the questions I can't answer:

1) Can we cash on or around Christmas? This will probably have to do with the position of the trough axis (further east good or furthest west bad).

2) Will this be a short lived cold shot or can this be a long tern, sustainable pattern?

Let the good (model watching) times roll!

[1234snow]

0z Euro is in for the 1st storm. Still holding serve with the strength of the system and amount of QPF but the track is north some from the 12z run. Warmer also this run but the CAD locks in good for North Carolina. I think we can just about put the nail in the coffin for anyone south and east of a line from Memphis to Nashville to Jackson, KY and on this side on the Appalachians.