John1122 Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 That run of the Euro was good for the Tennessee Valley, especially the Western half. But it looked like most of the area would have a shot at snow. Very heavy from the Plateau westward, especially western TN and maybe N.Miss too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach B Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 To sum up...No SSW for two weeks. Add ten days due to lag. According to the article, still looking at three weeks(at the earliest) until a real shot at a pattern that supports consistent Arctic air getting dislodged off the pole. Gradual cooling will take place over NA over the coming weeks. The pattern over NW Asia is delaying the start of winter for the lower 48 it appears. That snow graph for NA is not appetizing. Still suspects winter to get cold and stay that way for several weeks - but delayed at this point due aformentioned feature in Asia. Looks like patience will be the key... I am now beginning to think(but am not completely sold) that winter is going to be a contracted period of three to four weeks of winter wx (sometimes sever) beginning in early January and ending in early February. What does that tall us? Climatology is going to win the day. We get winter in January more often than not. (edited a couple of times w/in ten minutes of posting) Getting our coldest period relative to normal to happen during the heart of winter could produce some magic even if its only for a few weeks. Most of us outside of the mountains can be happy with just a couple of decent snows as long as the ground stays covered for a while. Mid to late January seems to historically be the most likely time for that to happen anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 The latest Euro is showing 6 inches for western Tn 3"for middle Tn,the set up is prime for us for a change Lets hope it stays that way, remember, we are still a few days out from the event and the previous run of the same model had different placement of the snow; overall, I like the pattern that we are headed into I think the next 6 - 8 weeks we will have numerous chances at snow hopefully the ice can stay away this year; either way, should be some good tracking! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Lets hope it stays that way, remember, we are still a few days out from the event and the previous run of the same model had different placement of the snow; overall, I like the pattern that we are headed into I think the next 6 - 8 weeks we will have numerous chances at snow hopefully the ice can stay away this year; either way, should be some good tracking! The system is not an ideal track for us,we've seen this to often the models being to cold and not showing WAA.I'd definite give this system up to make a 50/50 though for around Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Lets hope it stays that way, remember, we are still a few days out from the event and the previous run of the same model had different placement of the snow; overall, I like the pattern that we are headed into I think the next 6 - 8 weeks we will have numerous chances at snow hopefully the ice can stay away this year; either way, should be some good tracking! I agree on where the pattern should go. Looks like the time frame around Christmas and beyond can produce. We don't need a SSW, I think that term is too often overused. If we can manage a +PNA and a -AO, and even a neutral NAO I think we will have opportunities. As we head into January I expect the NAO to become more valuable and I think the analog packages give us a good shot to turn even that in our favor...... If we can't score SEVERAL winter threats that produce this year just give me the 90's back where I could do a LOT of stuff outside and still manage a bomb of a snowstorm every few years.... (Speaking for NE TN) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 I am surprised at the bullishness in talking about the threat next weekend. (Maybe it's important for the heads up simply for the time if year?) I think the chances for that system are not very good. A lot of things are against it, but maybe it will at least give us something to track. When I say a lot of things I am referring to the lack of cold, 500 flow that seems to shear the vort, the Miller B look on some ensembles that is still a distinct possibility, the inability for whatever 50/50 is present to stay put, etc. I myself remain bullish for the Christmas through New Year period as I like the looks of the ensembles (very much) at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 13, 2014 Author Share Posted December 13, 2014 Getting our coldest period relative to normal to happen during the heart of winter could produce some magic even if its only for a few weeks. Most of us outside of the mountains can be happy with just a couple of decent snows as long as the ground stays covered for a while. Mid to late January seems to historically be the most likely time for that to happen anyway. Yeah. Kind of my line of thinking. I will always take my chances with cold the first two weeks of January and roll the dice on precip. More often than not we cash in...So, while I have my doubts about an epic winter...I continue to think most see enough snow and ice to feel satisfactory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 13, 2014 Author Share Posted December 13, 2014 I agree on where the pattern should go. Looks like the time frame around Christmas and beyond can produce. We don't need a SSW, I think that term is too often overused. If we can manage a +PNA and a -AO, and even a neutral NAO I think we will have opportunities. As we head into January I expect the NAO to become more valuable and I think the analog packages give us a good shot to turn even that in our favor...... If we can't score SEVERAL winter threats that produce this year just give me the 90's back where I could do a LOT of stuff outside and still manage a bomb of a snowstorm every few years.... (Speaking for NE TN) I think I have been using it correctly in relation to the article. And correct, we don't need a SSW. However, it might help greatly to shake-up the +NAO state we are currently locked. I don't think a +PNA does the trick this year. Seems like the Atlantic will be the driver. But I could be wrong. IMO, I think the NAO will be a good signal for winter wx. For example, I think its projected downward trend is indicating a storm and cooler pattern. Seems like the Nino is muting the PNA signal in terms of potential snow events. As for next week....going to take some mojo to get snow when a cold air mass is lacking for all of NA, especially the south. However, Robert and Alan have both mentioned the signal is there. So, I defer to them at the moment. To my eyes, a small stripe of snow is possible. A large scale storm with no cold to draw from just seems unlikely. Glad Butch is back in the fold BTW!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Pattern appears "loaded" next weekend and beyond, though still not ready to buy into next weekend just yet. I am really liking the looks of Christmas period though!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Pattern appears "loaded" next weekend and beyond, though still not ready to buy into next weekend just yet. I am really liking the looks of Christmas period though!! I agree,the pattern does look loaded.The system for next week though the Euro 12Z relaxed the STJ by the looks.Hope it keeps the consistency up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 From DT, taken from the MidAtlantic forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 WxmanChris posted his thoughts on facebook Well, lest just say, the 12z EURO could make a lot of people happy, if its correct...**IF** TN, and WNC would do pretty good, if this 1 model run is correct. The *TRENDS* have been interesting to say the least. I still think someone in the SE will have to deal with some sort of wintry threat on this. More in a bit. Video coming soon. For us in Middle Georgia, and most of GA, and the SE, this will be all rain, I truly feel that way. It would be very beneficial rains at that. Things can and will change, but as of now, it should be all rain if your south of I-40. Again, 1 model run!! The signs are there though. GFS did trend toward the EURO from the 12z run. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 ImageUploadedByTapatalk1418502086.071871.jpgFrom DT, taken from the MidAtlantic forum. wxrisk on facebook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSIONNWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD1051 AM EST SAT DEC 13 2014 VALID 12Z TUE DEC 16 2014 - 12Z SAT DEC 20 2014 ...HEAVY RAINS ALONG NORTHWEST COAST--COLDER IN THE EAST... THE SHIFTING FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE UNITED STATES AT THE MEDIUMRANGE WILL REDISTRIBUTE THE WEATHER FORTUNES OF LATE, WITH HEAVYRAINFALL INDICATED ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND A RETURNTO SEASONABLE COLD IN THE EAST. RELIED ON THE STRONG CORRELATIONBETWEEN THE 00Z/13 ECENS MEAN AND THE 06Z/13 GEFS MEAN FOR THISFORECAST PACKAGE. WITH MORE PHASING OF THE HERETOFORE DISTINCTNORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA, BOTH THEORIENTATION OF THE INCOMING PACIFIC JET ALONG THE WEST COAST ANDTHE PRIMARY STORM TRACK EAST OF THE ROCKIES ARE DIFFERENT. THECOLD AIR ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST, GREAT LAKES, AND NORTHEAST ISNOT ARCTIC IN NATURE--BUT COLD ENOUGH TO INCREASE THE CHANCES OFFROZEN PRECIPITATION ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF WAVES ROLLING THROUGHTHE DEEP SOUTH. THE STRONGEST SIGNAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN THEEAST IS FROM THE ARKLATEX TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DAYS 6AND 7. CISCO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 This has been the 3rd run or so that has had a width swath of snow on the Euro over the Southeast. This may have been the best run yet. GGEM and GFS has weaker energy and allows the energy to cut much further west than the Euro has been advertising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 13, 2014 Author Share Posted December 13, 2014 Looks like an event that looks elevation dependent. Long ways to go. Will change multiple times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Fantasy storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Hey everyone!! Have to run, but will come by more often! New weather video is up. Forecast for Middle Georgia and the 7 day for Macon. I talk plenty about the next weekend storm, and also hint around on some ideas for the Christmas week storm as well. Thank you all for the new likes on my FB page. IF you haven't, and want to, please like my page, the video and share and invite all your friends. Remember, the weather will NEVER wait for you, NEVER wait for your weather information. Thank you everyone! Some fun times ahead, and still a few different ideas possible for next weekends storm. https://www.facebook.com/pages/Wxmanchris/690966551001476?ref=hl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Hey everyone!! Have to run, but will come by more often! New weather video is up. Forecast for Middle Georgia and the 7 day for Macon. I talk plenty about the next weekend storm, and also hint around on some ideas for the Christmas week storm as well. Thank you all for the new likes on my FB page. IF you haven't, and want to, please like my page, the video and share and invite all your friends. Remember, the weather will NEVER wait for you, NEVER wait for your weather information. Thank you everyone! Some fun times ahead, and still a few different ideas possible for next weekends storm. https://www.facebook.com/pages/Wxmanchris/690966551001476?ref=hl Thanks Chris Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Fantasy range i know but the GFS looks nippy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Anytime! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Good morning everyone! New forecast video is up now, the model discussion video will be up at 10am E/9am C. Have a wonderful day, and thank you so much for liking my page, sharing the videos, sharing the page with your friends and inviting them to like it. Can't thank y'all enough!! https://www.facebook.com/pages/Wxmanchris/690966551001476 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 We need to clear the air about a few things concerning the evolution of the winter season thus far. One topic is El Nino. Some are suggesting it has not developed, others are saying it is so well organized as to possibly constitute a moderate, basin-wide +ENSO episode. The truth of the matter is that we are in a relatively weak warm anomaly across the western and central Pacific Ocean (the eastern sectors are cooling), with a very impressive positive signal of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. A Modoki event attached to a +PDO almost always yields excessive cold air development and advection through the eastern two-thirds of North America. And, it might be added, an active southern branch storm track that is associated with a surge of tropical moisture from the equatorial regions moving through Mexico. Despite recent speculations by some on a mild winter (we went through this last year, did we not?), analog predictions for a relatively moderate December ending with a surge of storms and cold look to verify. I am not entirely sure how the storm threat for December 22 - 26 will play out. Numerical models lean heavily on a path from Galveston TX....Knoxville TN....Quebec City QC. But the analog-derived outlook seems to favor redevelopment over or near Cape Hatteras NC, with a noteworthy powerhouse cyclone of the "Nor'easter" type. That would mean impressive snowfall rates for an area from VA into ME. It is just too early to tell. But the odds on a system that will create weather memories on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day are very high. As blocking signatures become aligned about the Arctic Circle after the big storm threat, the cAk vortex that develops in central/eastern Canada will again begin an interaction with the southern branch jet stream. Notice that I have included singular "captions" using the analog years for both Christmas Eve and New Year's Eve. Both the dynamic models and the comparison test depictions support yet another huge cold storm moving out of Texas on December 31. The ensemble groups suggest this event will occur two or three days ahead of the analog set (notice the negative height anomaly off of the New England coast on the 24th). So do not be surprised that during the Sunday and Monday in the hammock week between the major holidays, there may just be another big hit of snow and ice across the southern and eastern tiers of the U.S. Yes the weather outside looks frightful. But to me, it's so delightful. Let it snow, let it snow, LET IT SNOW! And stay really cold and make my winter forecast correct, too!Prepared by Meteorologist LARRY COSGROVE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 LC is being extremely bullish about three fairly size able snow storms in the time period between the 19-31st, each of which he thinks is a little further southeast with time. Calling the Christmas storm the "big Kahuna"........... Hope he is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 14, 2014 Author Share Posted December 14, 2014 donsutherland just posted a pattern change update on the main board. Excellent as always. The guy rarely misses. I took a look at KTRI's climo for December. I had originally thought the above average numbers for December would bring the month to normal or above. However, the upcoming pattern should erase any above normal temps by the end of the month. The pattern for snow still does not look all that great until after Christmas for the upper south and then things should really get rolling. At this point, I think it is safe to start the countdown for winter's approach. Sutherland's time frame looks sound. Folks from Memphis to the Tri-Cities should keep an eye on the weather from next weekend onward...I love it when a plan comes together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Carvers, interestingly, the Euro snow maps (yes I know flawed) show not one, but TWO accumulating snows this week for parts of TN. The first comes sneaking in and lays 2-3 inches along and north of I-40, from west TN all the way to the Cumberland plateau. The second crushes most of west TN and northern middle TN, some areas showing over 15 inches. Most of northeast TN shows 2 or so. Interesting......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 14, 2014 Author Share Posted December 14, 2014 Carvers, interestingly, the Euro snow maps (yes I know flawed) show not one, but TWO accumulating snows this week for parts of TN. The first comes sneaking in and lays 2-3 inches along and north of I-40, from west TN all the way to the Cumberland plateau. The second crushes most of west TN and northern middle TN, some areas showing over 15 inches. Most of northeast TN shows 2 or so. Interesting......... That the 0z? Would love for those folks out middle/west to get some good snow. With so little cold air available, pretty crazy the upper south may be in business. Looks like the flip to a colder patter will hit this weekend. And I think that you said this...the cloud cover muted any warm-up these past two weeks. Truly feels Nino-ish w/ cold, cloudy, drizzly weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 14, 2014 Author Share Posted December 14, 2014 Until that cold air slides in over the lakes just after Christmas, I am suspicious of snow chances this far south...but stranger things have happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 That the 0z? Would love for those folks out middle/west to get some good snow. With so little cold air available, pretty crazy the upper south may be in business. Looks like the flip to a colder patter will hit this weekend. And I think that you said this...the cloud cover muted any warm-up these past two weeks. Truly feels Nino-ish w/ cold, cloudy, drizzly weather. Today is a crazy example of that. Suppose to be 50, was 35 at 12:30 at my house...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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