valkhorn Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 February brutal cold snaps are rare but they have happened before:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Blizzard_of_1899The only thing I don't like is that the GFS has this stuff on the long range, and the long range usually does a 180 by the time it becomes short range this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 CPC teleconnections support what the 12z and 18z GFS are cooking up...which is severe cold in the LR. The NAO goes neutral. PNA is postive. AO will struggle to see positive again. I think the bottom is about to drop out w/ regard to temps and then lock in for 7-10 days. Should be late week 2 and week 3. In terms of snow, waaay better pattern than at any time this winter. Put me in the bullish column for Feb... 18z GFS looks cold for most of the run. The +PNA gets pumped up later in the run although I would like to see if happen earlier. I haven't looked at the Euro + CMC. We are wasting precious days of winter. I'm bullish on cold for most of the rest of the month but not really on snow. The PNA ridge isn't going to do us any good with regards to snow if the troughs dropping out of the northwest are going to stay positive tilt. Many opportunities for cold frontal passages if things stay the same as it looked on the 18z GFS. Luckily modeling hasn't been worth a crap this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 It's sad, but this winter has blown so badly I have almost stopped caring. Reel something in for us Carvers... I feel you. I'm ready for spring really and ready to forget about this winter. I can just imagine about warmer golfing days. Today was just a you know what tease. Cold and blustery with just enough snow to look at but not stick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 February brutal cold snaps are rare but they have happened before: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Blizzard_of_1899 The only thing I don't like is that the GFS has this stuff on the long range, and the long range usually does a 180 by the time it becomes short range this winter. I agree. That has been the jest of this whole winter(well I'll say January because we knew that December would be warm). Opportunities and good patterns were always on the doorstep only for things to fall apart. The northern and southern stream hasn't really hooked up yet for us even while the pattern potential hasn't been awful. The flow has just been too fast without much blocking. I think that if would have had a consistent blocking pattern we would have cashed in a few times in January. That has been the killer the lack of a solid -NAO pattern and really a persistent -AO as well. That's why I'm not optimistic about February (in terms of big snow). The potential for some big colds shots definitely looks there. -20c possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Probably the best the weeklies have looked all year is wk3,so i believe what the GFS is showing has legs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 3, 2015 Author Share Posted February 3, 2015 Basically, I have been waiting for the OPs to show what the CPC teleconnections have been showing for 4-5 days...which is a Jan '14 type cold outbreak February style. The GFS has been poor in the LR but has had little support from teleconnections. It has some support now. The PNA will get undercut because it is Feb. The NAO is shaky neutral. It won't help us, but won't hurt us as it has been. Bet we have something track by this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 Not sure whether to post in the Fabulous February thread as that first week has since run its course and is over. I will say in advance that I did read Robert's comments on FB, but these comments come from my own head...but are similar to his. I would have posted last night, but it has been a long week. However, I did state the temps were going to be pretty brutal. Anyway, a strong +PNA is surely to keep us in the ice box and certainly keeps the northern stream in play while the southern stream sits dormant. Indeed, as Robert and CPC point out, this is a dry pattern portrayed. I was about to say that this has been the pattern for the entire winter. However, this winter has almost been wall-to-wall cool and damp. While Nino-ish climatology has dominated this winter, the lack of any activity in the southern stream does not really fit that pattern either. The cool, damp weather does fit the Nino-ish pattern. But the moisture has been mostly spawned by northern stream energy. We have experienced significantly more cloudy days when compared to sunny days. So, not sure that I buy that this pattern goes dry, but we are due some type of dry time frame. Now, I am not saying there has been a deluge...just damp and cold. KTRI is behind slightly in precip. I think the cloudy days have kept things on the damp side. As for the upcoming pattern, I still think February climo wins the battle. This winter has been cool and damp. December was above normal in terms of temps, January was slightly below, and February should be the coldest of the three. That follows Nino climo. At some point the southern stream is going to roar to life. Whether that can save snow climo, I don't know...but suspect that it will for at least the eastern Valley areas. Now, this is where I think things are incorrect on the models. During cold spells, wx models have a tendency to erroneously perpetuate the cold in a type of feedback well past what actually happens in reality. Last January('14) was an exception to this thought. It seems that the models are dampening the southern jet during a time that it is least likely to be dormant. And I admit there is some support for the dormant southern jet for sure. I just think climo wins this battle like heat winning the battle in August. Bottom line, I think the southern stream awakens and undercuts the western ridge. Unfortunately this winter, that usually kicks the trough in the east out to sea. However, what I most suspect is coming is a complete shake-up of the pattern mid-month. At some point Spring is going to squash this repeating pattern. Bowling ball lows will begin to wonder eastward and THAT is where we can score a big snow. The cold over the Hudson shows no sign of leaving. If one of these lows can slide under Tennessee, there might be enough cold to score the coup. Cosgrove has hinted at this, and I concur. We just missed a phase on Thursday. I think that was just the beginning of things. While I certainly don't want to provide false hope, I do think we are actually entering a time that at the very least has more things to watch and track than December/January. If we get hit by a significant winter storm, nobody will remember that winter sucked before it got here. Yes, it's the fourth quarter of the game. However, temps for Dec/Jan/Feb could finish at normal w/ the GFS/Euro pattern depiction. If we get nailed w/ one good winter storm, we finish w/ climo for the season for snow as well. Climo in both temps and snow is satisfactory for me. And if all else fails, at least we may have some more gardeners in the gardening thread for the summer. Mr. Bob is in the game. Tnweathernut, time to put something out as well. Thanks for being the best wxforum in the country, even when the pattern for snow is less than satisfactory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 One other thing that I might add...though cold, the upcoming pattern may have some embedded clippers that are not being depicted. Clippers in February can be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Bingo! One other thing that I might add...though cold, the upcoming pattern may have some embedded clippers that are not being depicted. Clippers in February can be fun. Well, they are fun up in the Tri Cities. I am planning on going to the NC Highcountry when I'm confident in a good clipper. Still kicking myself for not hitting the ski slopes last week of January. Southern winter does not often give second chances, but I think it will once during the rest of Feb. Regrettably I do not feel too confident about the southern stream. When it has woken up this year systems have not phased, so warm air advection came in. Long as the NAO stays neutral or positive, regardless of excellent PNA, odds are against a phase down here. I'm echoing thoughts from a Don Sutherland on the main weather forecasting and discussion forum. Don is talking mainly about the mid-Atlantic in the medium-range thread. If they can't get a phase, we definitely can't. Ending positive it only takes one that is not poorly timed. Otherwise a clipper chase is pretty easy since we know to just go to the mountains. Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 Bingo! Well, they are fun up in the Tri Cities. I am planning on going to the NC Highcountry when I'm confident in a good clipper. Still kicking myself for not hitting the ski slopes last week of January. Southern winter does not often give second chances, but I think it will once during the rest of Feb. Regrettably I do not feel too confident about the southern stream. When it has woken up this year systems have not phased, so warm air advection came in. Long as the NAO stays neutral or positive, regardless of excellent PNA, odds are against a phase down here. I'm echoing thoughts from a Don Sutherland on the main weather forecasting and discussion forum. Don is talking mainly about the mid-Atlantic in the medium-range thread. If they can't get a phase, we definitely can't. Ending positive it only takes one that is not poorly timed. Otherwise a clipper chase is pretty easy since we know to just go to the mountains. Cheers! Read Don all the time. Good discussion as always. He generally rides the AO index as you know. I am not completely confident the southern stream will awaken in time for winter. I am just riding climo on this one. I didn't ride w/ it for the Jan temp contest and was burned. This time, I took climo to the dance and am in good position to finish decently...though probably not cold enough in the NE and not warm enough in the SW. Tough to get snow into the southeast Valley for sure. Here in Kingsport, clippers are not the best. West of I-26 does the best. We get downsloped here. Looks like the water in the western Pacific near the dateline is getting warmer. So, I am banking on that signal to impact weather. I don't think the wx models recognize it yet. I think eventually it will undercut or erode the western ridge by either inducing split flow or rolling the western ridge across the US and allowing the following trough to settle in the midsection of the country. Maybe even popping a little southeast ridge - whether that helps us west of the Apps, I don't know. Depends on where it sets up shop , if at all. I have been generally bearish all winter on snow, but I think climo would support a big event this month. Now, I am not saying repetitive shots of snow. Just one big bruiser last two weeks of this month or the first week of March. edit: And I might add, I do not have model support at this time. And Jeff, as always, thanks for stopping by. You and Mr. Bob add a ton to the conversation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 GFS IS showing a blizzard in the NE,this sends the trough further west.We still get snow but man it's gonna send some freakish cold into the Valley for Mid Feb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 12z GFS is just brutal in terms of cold relative to February. Get ready. Might rival the last cold snap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 12z Euro sure comes in with a nice look days 7-10. Period right after Valentine's day may be a time to watch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Lol, just posted in the Fab feb thread ......virtually the same thing. There has been a good signal for something around the 15th-17th, but it will likely all hinge on the western ridging growing tall enough and pulling back enough to send a vort down the front range of the Rockies into Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 The Euro 12z EPS is practically screaming for widespread TN Valley snow in the 15-20 Feb period, but is it finally right this time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 The Euro 12z EPS is practically screaming for widespread TN Valley snow in the 15-20 Feb period, but is it finally right this time? Who knows if it is correct!? LOL. The Euro has been spitting out all sorts of solutions. Obviously, I'd like it to be correct after making the post above, and in addition, I enjoy tracking snowstorms. But just one model run doesn't make me even remotely correct....At this point, the 12z Euro will be one of many solutions that bounce around until settling on a solution. But we do have some things in our favor now. It is about to get really cold. Dry cold in January is pretty normal...during February that is not normal. It is February, and climo favors snow this month. Still a long ways to go, but today a signal for a storm is there. Tomorrow, who knows? I stated my thoughts earlier, so I won't be too long winded here. But today is a step in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Wouldn't be concerned at this stage,this will change over and over.But,M/TN by the storms path would be a major ice storm as we would get warmed nosed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 The 18z GFS depicting almost wall-to-wall +PNA with severe cold dropping into the eastern trough. While don't see many snow events, the cold would be memorable. Have to think the changing seasons will challenge the base of that trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 The 18z GFS depicting almost wall-to-wall +PNA with severe cold dropping into the eastern trough. While don't see many snow events, the cold would be memorable. Have to think the changing seasons will challenge the base of that trough. It has more QPF'S than i expected,almost .16" for BNA the ratios would should suggest 2- 3".But the cold is brutal like you said -25c,850's showing on BNA..brrrrrr !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 If the GFS is right Nashville would break the record low for Feb 19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 record.png If the GFS is right Nashville would break the record low for Feb 19 What is your best guess about the likelihood of this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 temps.png Wouldn't be concerned at this stage,this will change over and over.But,M/TN by the storms path would be a major ice storm as we would get warmed nosed. I am no good at reading those lol, what period would be possible icing I am about 15 minutes south of the KY line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 What is your best guess about the likelihood of this? Not sure W4U,seems like the new GFS is cold biased,but anyways the GEFS is more eastward with the trough compared to the GFS,so i have doubts it gets that cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 I am no good at reading those lol, what period would be possible icing I am about 15 minutes south of the KY line Look at the 850's,you want those - ,when ever you see the 850's + and then the 2m's - this screams ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Look at the 850's,you want those - ,when ever you see the 850's + and then the 2m's - this screams ice Gotcha thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 With the prominent -EPO/+PNA ridge complex not letting up any time soon, the subtropical jet stream which has been reforming over the eastern Pacific Ocean will be forced to stay well below the U.S. and Mexico border. Most of the West and even the lower Great Plains will dodge the worst, lingering effects of cold air. But a shortwave moving down the right side of the anticyclone will create a gap or weakness in the southern High Plains and Rio Grande Valley. It is that indentation which may enable energy from the southern branch to emerge into Texas around February 15-16. The "coming out" process has been described by NOAA and NWS staff for many years, after the phenomenon was first documented in the mid-1970s. The problem in this situation is that the energy is not over the American Southwest, but very far south in Baja California and the western Mexican mainland. Timing the ejection process is very tough. I have noticed that for the past several runs of the numerical models, at least one operational version has shown the potential threat (which would be a major precipitation and cold driver if this occurs). Most of the ensemble formats of the major equations seem to hint at such a development. But just how does this process get going? Through a shearing mechanism, or in one large effort that takes a storm through the Deep South and up along the Eastern Seaboard? I think that the 12z ECMWF model run has something clsoe to the right idea here, with the growing system interacting with the Arctic air mass over the Dixie states on February 18. Timing either way will be difficult, and track scenarios are bound to change. But when I view the analog forecasts as a comparison test, the effects of the phased feature will be both widespread, and potentially extreme in terms of snow, wind, and cold air drainage. Stay tuned! Larry Cosgrove -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 More Cosgrove as i mentioned earlier we could be looking at record lows in the Valley: The storm/ridge couplet over the northern Pacific Ocean and western North America is going to be with us for a while. As a result, northwest flow out of Arctic Canada will be in force as well, bringing strong 500MB shortwaves across the Great Lakes and into the Eastern Seaboard. Most of the numerical models have a very strong storm kicking up near the 40/70 "benchmark" on Friday, so a brief burst of heavy snow could fall across New York and New England. But the big deal will be the cold, with Arctic values sending readings well below normal and very possibly into record-breaking territory in much of the Midwest and Northeast (and very possibly the Tennessee Valley). Most of the numerical models show two separate intrusions of cAk values that reach Texas and the Gulf Coast, even implying a chance for the Florida Peninsula to be involved in a frost or freeze at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 More Cosgrove as i mentioned earlier we could be looking at record lows in the Valley: The storm/ridge couplet over the northern Pacific Ocean and western North America is going to be with us for a while. As a result, northwest flow out of Arctic Canada will be in force as well, bringing strong 500MB shortwaves across the Great Lakes and into the Eastern Seaboard. Most of the numerical models have a very strong storm kicking up near the 40/70 "benchmark" on Friday, so a brief burst of heavy snow could fall across New York and New England. But the big deal will be the cold, with Arctic values sending readings well below normal and very possibly into record-breaking territory in much of the Midwest and Northeast (and very possibly the Tennessee Valley). Most of the numerical models show two separate intrusions of cAk values that reach Texas and the Gulf Coast, even implying a chance for the Florida Peninsula to be involved in a frost or freeze at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Lond range discussion In reviewing the procession of winter events so far, the idea of a weak El Nino with a strong +PDO signature has verified, and looks to continue through at least the first half or two-thirds of March. One puzzlement to the pattern set-up has been the relative lack of storminess in the southern quadrant of the U.S., which one would normally expect in a +ENSO episode. Yes, there have been some decently strong precipitation events, and temperatures have been fairly cold. But snowfall has been a rarity below 40 N Latitude, and Florida has largely escaped any prolonged or damaging cold weather. So far the February outlook is going "as scheduled", with cold air in control east of the Rocky Mountains and temperatures staying warm over the West (with little precipitation). The question mark, of course, is the threat for a large winter storm at the end of the medium range. If the risk is valid, Arctic air will flood the entire eastern half of the nation, even exposing Florida, Cuba and the Bahamas to a critical cold snap. I think that the threat is real, with the chance at least for parts of Dixie to see some important snowfall and a fairly long-lasting blast of Arctic air. Keep in mind that all of the dynamic and climatic models keep the warm West vs. cold East alignment going into the first week of March, with no real-let up. The global versions, for their part, show extreme cases of Arctic air in play through the remainder of the month in locations to the right of the Continental Divide. But the proverbial fly in the ointment here is the analog set. Note that by February 22, the formation of a storm in Texas moving northeastward, with moderation in readings over the eastern quarter of the nation. Given the configuration of high-latitude ridges, any warm-up along the Eastern Seaboard would probably be short-lived. But the projection of a Panhandle Hooker "B" track would mean rain and thunderstorms after a dose of winter weather in Dixie.Prepared by Meteorologist LARRY COSGROVE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 8, 2015 Author Share Posted February 8, 2015 0z Euro obviously does not depict the event on this AM's run. The timeframe is still ripe for a storm IMO. The 6z GFS shows at least two in the LR during the week after V-day. I don't think it wise to talk specifics as the models are only seeing the potential, and probably not the actual event. Very, very cold pattern either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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