jaxjagman Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Canadian is showing an impressive cold shot,every state in the Mainland is below freezing.Even though we know this model is cold biased in extreme events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 24, 2015 Author Share Posted January 24, 2015 Days 7-10. 0z Euro places an elongated trough over the eastern 2/3 of the country. Extraordinarily cold air just north of the GL. Perhaps as good a set-up for overrunning as one could ask. Might even need a tiny signature of a SER with that look. Here is the big question... Is the southern branch going to be active this time? I think so. It is almost early spring and generally more energy is around. Rarely does it get cold in Feb and not snow. I don't think that trough locks in, but it could. With no blocking in the Atlantic, the western ridge will be our ticket...and it is sometimes a fickle partner to winter in the East. Beware of energy cutting west of the Apps. No -NAO, no cutters. Big highs will push everything south. What we need for snow is a buckle or kink in the jet caused by energy coming out of the SW. Or we need the jet to slow and force a kink in the East. The western ridge makes it tricky. Seems like those buckles are only allowed to form when the trough relaxes in the East. Meaning it is warm. When cold is present, the southern jet has not been strong enough. So, Spring may be our ally as it has a tendency to jar the jet. With cold signaled by the PNA and AO in the LR, I think we see some moderate snows in the Valley. If we are to get the "Big One" we will need some NAO help and it just looks positive for the foreseeable future. If it makes a strong turn towards neutral or slightly negative, we may be in business...but the next two weeks look very positive on CPC. Amazing that it has been so positive this winter. To sum it up... Looks like a great three weeks coming up...with at least some storms to track. And be thankful you reside west of the Apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 The 0z euro ensembles still show possibilities for snow and the 6z GFS covers the whole valley, much of which is 3+ inches. I'm as encouraged as one can be this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 The 0z euro ensembles still show possibilities for snow and the 6z GFS covers the whole valley, much of which is 3+ inches. I'm as encouraged as one can be this far out. I agree. I am optimistic, but when am I not? lol. If I ever go full pessimism, you will know there is cause for concern, haha. If I were on the other side of the apps, I would certainly be concerned and much less optimistic. I REALLY hope Nashville can score a big snow (6") before the winter is out, whether or not we do over here. Those guys have been in an all time snow drought for YEARS and are deserving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Our storm is back but as usual the GFS is bending it back to the northwest. Not good for east TN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Our storm is back but as usual the GFS is bending it back to the northwest. Not good for east TN Not worried at all at this point. Too far out to be concerned. Signal for fun and games is a VERY good one. Looks great for y'all though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 24, 2015 Author Share Posted January 24, 2015 12z Euro 1/24 would appear to discharge the Mother Load of cold into the GLs. Might need to take the Canadian and shift it to Houston, New Orleans, and Mobile. Both the 12z GFS and Euro depict varying degrees of cold. The Euro is tree splitting cold for the Ohio River Valley. If I was going to put chances on snow during the next four weeks...I would say that E TN has about a 70% chance of snow greater than 4". Even money in Nashville and Memphis. Waaaay better than in previous weeks. If we get a storm in early February might have to name it..."The Dacula Special." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 The clipper is looking better and better,the lower levels aren't that great but if this falls where ever at night time some one i believe might get a surprise especially in the eastern parts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Since early on,it finally got there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 25, 2015 Author Share Posted January 25, 2015 12z Euro is light years better than the GFS. Still, same pattern of moisture attacking retreating cold. The promise of winter WX has all but evaporated outside of the NE. Tonight and tomorrow offers slims chances at some flakes. Otherwise, looks like we (me included) have been fooled again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I am seeing a LOT of posts of winter being over. I guess I just think it's too early to think that. The ensembles (GGEM and EURO) continue to look good through 240. After that, a TON of time to shift things around. Yes, the Atlantic seems to be horrible, but I like the ridging shown out west. This time of the year, we can score with a good ridge out that way and "cold enough" air around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 26, 2015 Author Share Posted January 26, 2015 Tnweathernut, can't see much in the way of models yet...but looks like most models are showing a zonal pattern with the cold bottled in Canada after 240. But as poorly as the models have been this winter, still worth keeping a watchful eye on things for sure. If (stress if) that zonal pattern verifies, winter is on life support. Basically would mean the back half of Feb would have to deliver. Personally, I think a snowless winter is now very much in the cards for Kingsport if this weekend does not work out...first since I moved home. We have had zero accumulation at my house and only about fifteen minutes of snow shower activity for the season. The CPC teleconnections today are dismal. But as you say, that can change. This blizzard will shake up the pattern. So, I will probably reserve judgement until after it passes and after this weekend. But if we go zonal, my onions and kale are going in the ground. Ha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 26, 2015 Author Share Posted January 26, 2015 Meant to ask, how are the weeklies? They have been good this winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 26, 2015 Author Share Posted January 26, 2015 CFS2 has it cold in the East. I would honestly be surprised to see Feb go warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Tnweathernut, can't see much in the way of models yet...but looks like most models are showing a zonal pattern with the cold bottled in Canada after 240. But as poorly as the models have been this winter, still worth keeping a watchful eye on things for sure. If (stress if) that zonal pattern verifies, winter is on life support. Basically would mean the back half of Feb would have to deliver. Personally, I think a snowless winter is now very much in the cards for Kingsport if this weekend does not work out...first since I moved home. We have had zero accumulation at my house and only about fifteen minutes of snow shower activity for the season. The CPC teleconnections today are dismal. But as you say, that can change. This blizzard will shake up the pattern. So, I will probably reserve judgement until after it passes and after this weekend. But if we go zonal, my onions and kale are going in the ground. Ha! I am not worried about 240+, much less beyond 180 at this point. lol... It's been a horrible model year. You can count on a ++NAO most of the time so far this year, but the ridging out west should keep us at least in the game with a pretty good cold air feed. Time will tell about this weekend, but the Euro is keeping us close enough to snow through day 15 to warrant a watchful eye. I doubt you get blanked this year, but that's JMO. I have remained rather optimistic, even in the face of the terrible hand we have been dealt so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 CFS2 has it cold in the East. I would honestly be surprised to see Feb go warm. would match the analog packages we have seen for months on end, lol. Meant to ask, how are the weeklies? They have been good this winter... i don't have them out yet. Maybe in the next hour or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 There is enough going on in the ensembles of the three major global models to be encouraged going into February. Granted they haven't shown much skill beyond a week or so, but for me that means there is no writing off winter until March gets here. We just need something tangible to sink our teeth into in the medium to short range and the coming weeks will be the best climo opportunity. We've barely even had a chance to get riled up by the NAM or RGEM up to this point lol. Feelings don't mean much in the weather world but my gut says one of these systems is going to pay off to some extent for valley. Could just be the bean and ham soup I had for lunch talking, in which case there could be other microscale issues to worry about in the greater Knoxville area soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 28, 2015 Author Share Posted January 28, 2015 18z GFS delivered the good tonight. The one big thing in our favor is +PNA. I have said it all year...beware of GL cutters. Had been a rare bear. Even Sunday looked marginally better. But I think Sunday sets the stage for the next one. I have been a naysayer all winter...but I do like the pattern upcoming. It has potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 February weather pattern looks colder than normal in the Southeast. Eastern Tennessee Valley has best chance of cold, but the Mid South is close with still better than even chance of colder than normal. Evolution from Dec to Jan has been for the northern stream to be a little stronger and the southern stream to be more progressive. We only had one 7-day cloudy stretch in Jan compared to about three in Dec. Mild interludes were fewer and shorter in Jan compared to Dec. If the southern stream dies out, very unlikely in Nino, we'd be left with NW flow. I think continued double action is likely. However phasing has been difficult for the South, so I think the best we can hope for is moderate interaction. All it takes is one though. Otherwise the mountains may be graced by clipper action. Despite weekly model debate about the Midwest, consensus is good keeping the Northeast cold at times bleeding into the Southeast. Also a textbook PNA is forecast later into Feb. Remember it is really a quadruple region teleconnection. Positive heights Hawaii and Intermountain, negative heights Aleutians and US Southeast. Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 February weather pattern looks colder than normal in the Southeast. Eastern Tennessee Valley has best chance of cold, but the Mid South is close with still better than even chance of colder than normal. Evolution from Dec to Jan has been for the northern stream to be a little stronger and the southern stream to be more progressive. We only had one 7-day cloudy stretch in Jan compared to about three in Dec. Mild interludes were fewer and shorter in Jan compared to Dec. If the southern stream dies out, very unlikely in Nino, we'd be left with NW flow. I think continued double action is likely. However phasing has been difficult for the South, so I think the best we can hope for is moderate interaction. All it takes is one though. Otherwise the mountains may be graced by clipper action. Despite weekly model debate about the Midwest, consensus is good keeping the Northeast cold at times bleeding into the Southeast. Also a textbook PNA is forecast later into Feb. Remember it is really a quadruple region teleconnection. Positive heights Hawaii and Intermountain, negative heights Aleutians and US Southeast. Cheers! Thanks Jeff, your contributions are always welcomed and appreciated here. Even though the event for late weekend/early week has become an Ohio Valley snow system, I am encouraged in laying down snow just north of us by early February. It could help us down this way as we progress into this next month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 30, 2015 Author Share Posted January 30, 2015 I like the look on the 18z GFS [1.30.15] of the Febuary 6 time frame. The energy form southern TX just barely beats a system coming out of the northwest. If accurate(and who really knows if it is at this point), that is not far from a phase. The 12z Euro @ 144 has a nice look to it. It is a little suppressed. but remember Sunday's storm has jogged 300 miles to the north on the wx models. -AO, strongly +PNA, and a NAO that is roughly neatral after being positive. I have thought the CPC ensembles were hinting at a storm for a couple of days on the East Coast around Feb 6th. It may just be they were picking-up on the Ohio Valley system...Let's see if the models don't begin to see this over the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I like the look on the 18z GFS [1.30.15] of the Febuary 6 time frame. The energy form southern TX just barely beats a system coming out of the northwest. If accurate(and who really knows if it is at this point), that is not far from a phase. The 12z Euro @ 144 has a nice look to it. It is a little suppressed. but remember Sunday's storm has jogged 300 miles to the north on the wx models. -AO, strongly +PNA, and a NAO that is roughly neatral after being positive. I have thought the CPC ensembles were hinting at a storm for a couple of days on the East Coast around Feb 6th. It may just be they were picking-up on the Ohio Valley system...Let's see if the models don't begin to see this over the weekend. I agree.We seem to always see a northward trend lately,will it happen again,who knows.I'm not sure what we will get out of it i like the eastern parts better right now.But for us in the middle and west if we see a shift N we still might have a shot at something this is just hypothetical right now.But the system to the NW diving down towards the Valley that's is showing signs of dampening out, a shift to the N of the GOM system could possibly catch this and enhance it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 0z Euro suppresses 2/6 system and misses phase. 0z GFS almost grabs the piece of energy in northern jet. Still quite a bit to work out. It obvious on the models that some early season warmth is building in the southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 CMC,EURO,GFS ensembles take the S/FL route,end of the next weeks storm is gonna be a fish storm if they are correct,.Fast flow,it's not taking no names by the looks right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Probably the best look we've seen all season.Now will we have a storm to go with it.Should see a warm up in wk.2 but it shouldn't last long.Just seasonable more or less by the looks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 Climo for February might win the day on this one. Models aren't going to be even close at this range. I am just looking at the pieces of energy in the pattern. Potential is there for interaction between two features if the timing is right. Wouldn't get too high or low with each run. As Gamble always states, have to be able to look past the model and look at what the pattern would allow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 4panel.png 1024×1024 .pngao.png Probably the best look we've seen all season.Now will we have a storm to go with it.Should see a warm up in wk.2 but it shouldn't last long.Just seasonable more or less by the looks anologs show a warming up the 2nd week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 4panel.png 1024×1024 .pngao.png Probably the best look we've seen all season.Now will we have a storm to go with it.Should see a warm up in wk.2 but it shouldn't last long.Just seasonable more or less by the looks almost comical such a drastic switch from yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 3, 2015 Author Share Posted February 3, 2015 CPC teleconnections support what the 12z and 18z GFS are cooking up...which is severe cold in the LR. The NAO goes neutral. PNA is postive. AO will struggle to see positive again. I think the bottom is about to drop out w/ regard to temps and then lock in for 7-10 days. Should be late week 2 and week 3. In terms of snow, waaay better pattern than at any time this winter. Put me in the bullish column for Feb... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 It's sad, but this winter has blown so badly I have almost stopped caring. Reel something in for us Carvers... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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