John1122 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Canadian is also showing a good bit of snow by the look of things. Right now the Southern Valley looks worst, But North of 40 and Crossville West look good for 2-4+ inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Some good signs of some much colder air visiting us again,for how long is in question.The GFS tonight showed sub 0 again for the Valley and the Euro is pulling it down also.Models are hinting at a storm 10 days out with a split flow and some 1040's HP lurking above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 GFS snow map for the extended isn't far off what the Euro ens had been showing in the 300+ range. A good portion of the state is covered in 2-8 inches of snow and just blisterering sub zero cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Howdy everyone! I've been watching the boards for a bit, I recognize a lot of names from years ago on accuwx forums. I wanted to throw this out because it is almost comical to me. A day or so ago Morristown was talking about snowfall bias in the models... No idea where they got that, but then last nights disco regarding our clipper this late weekend/early week. NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERNAPPALACHIANS FOR LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM ISA NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER WITH PLENTY OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITHTHE UPPER TROUGH. THE MAIN QUESTION FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TRACK OF850MB/SURFACE LOW. MAIN SNOW BAND WILL BE JUST NORTH OF THE 850MBTRACK. STRONG Q-VECTOR FORCING ANTICIPATED WITH THIS WAVE. ALSO ASSURFACE LOW MOVES EAST...GOOD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE OROGRAPHICSNOWFALL ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES. THIS SYSTEM HAS THECAPABILITY OF PRODUCING SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE VALLEYWITH MUCH HEAVIER AMOUNTS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. Morristown perplexes me sometimes with their discos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Howdy everyone! I've been watching the boards for a bit, I recognize a lot of names from years ago on accuwx forums. I wanted to throw this out because it is almost comical to me. A day or so ago Morristown was talking about snowfall bias in the models... No idea where they got that, but then last nights disco regarding our clipper this late weekend/early week. Morristown perplexes me sometimes with their discos. I agree, I don't know ...... It's even more perplexing, b/c this appears to have trended north (no shock here, it's a clipper, that's what they do, lol) while at the same time we have a system that trended colder overnight, giving parts of the state snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I agree, I don't know ...... It's even more perplexing, b/c this appears to have trended north (no shock here, it's a clipper, that's what they do, lol) while at the same time we have a system that trended colder overnight, giving parts of the state snow. Exactly... Its a clipper, aside from the northwest facing mountains above 3000 feet most of us never see more than an inch generally from 90% of clippers that pass the area. Granted this clipper looks stout in the models but "Several" inches in the valley? I'm interested in this storm but the Miller has more potential if we can get more cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Exactly... Its a clipper, aside from the northwest facing mountains above 3000 feet most of us never see more than an inch generally from 90% of clippers that pass the area. Granted this clipper looks stout in the models but "Several" inches in the valley? I'm interested in this storm but the Miller has more potential if we can get more cold air. I know you largely observe, but you should post more. What part of TN? What do you do? On topic: I hope we can realize the split-flow look in the modeling around the end of the month............... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 12z GFS around 240 looks like a sweet setup - Split stream with a large southern disturbance in the southwest moving east. A BIG high dropping into the plains, a 50/50, with a -NAO to boot. Large mid-south snow incoming per the 12z GFS. Snow maps will be fun to look at, as will individuals.............likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 12z GFS around 240 looks like a sweet setup - Split stream with a large southern disturbance in the southwest moving east. A BIG high dropping into the plains, a 50/50, with a -NAO to boot. Large mid-south snow incoming per the 12z GFS. Snow maps will be fun to look at, as will individuals.............likely. snow ratios should be about 12:1 at least so snow maps would be wrong..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 snow ratios should be about 12:1 at least so snow maps would be wrong..lol I am drooling at the setup, let's see if we can get it within day 10. It's EASILY the best look we have seen so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Tasty look also on the LR Euro..... Late month, early Feb is loaded with potential IMO... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I know you largely observe, but you should post more. What part of TN? What do you do? On topic: I hope we can realize the split-flow look in the modeling around the end of the month............... I live on the Roane and Meigs County lines on Watts Bar Lake. So Northern edge of the Southern Valley, or the Southern edge of the Central Valley depending on perspective. The end of the month is what I really have been watching for about a week, and most excited about. As long as we can keep the pattern in a way that won't favor GLCs, then I think we have decent shots coming. Edit: Also just noticed that the GFS has shifted the clipper back south a little from its placement on the 12Z. Would be kind of novel to have that low track over Tennessee, since that is rare, with maybe the exception of your area in upper east tennessee, where they sometimes pass overhead once or twice a year. EDIT the EDIT: Ha ha... Oops... yesterday's 18Z... Clipper is further north even more so than the 12Z. Long day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I live on the Roane and Meigs County lines on Watts Bar Lake. So Northern edge of the Southern Valley, or the Southern edge of the Central Valley depending on perspective. The end of the month is what I really have been watching for about a week, and most excited about. As long as we can keep the pattern in a way that won't favor GLCs, then I think we have decent shots coming. Edit: Also just noticed that the GFS has shifted the clipper back south a little from its placement on the 12Z. Would be kind of novel to have that low track over Tennessee, since that is rare, with maybe the exception of your area in upper east tennessee, where they sometimes pass overhead once or twice a year. I'll echo Nut's post from earlier, you need to post more! Would love to see that clipper get back on track. Those can be good entertainment in between larger threats. Edit: I'm pretty sure I remember you posting on accuwx forums several years ago. I know John was there, I was driver8 back then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 18z GFS looks pretty wild in the long range. Feels good to be in fantasy season again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 18z GFS looks pretty wild in the long range. Feels good to be in fantasy season again! Looks like too much suppression to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Looks like too much suppression to me It almost always moves north over time. That is exactly what we want to see that far out in my opinion. Plenty of cold air and big juicy monsters rolling through south of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 It almost always moves north over time. That is exactly what we want to see that far out in my opinion. Plenty of cold air and big juicy monsters rolling through south of us. I agree; I am seeing some similarities to systems I remember from childhood those that covered the entire state Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Hey gang, new weather video is up! Talking about the storm for Thursday, Friday and Saturday, PLUS the clipper and what that potential could do for us. Then** we look ahead toward the **POTENTIAL** for another storm as we get closer to D10-11 *superbowl Sunday* The TRENDS are very promising and encouraging, but obviously its quite a bit of ways away. We shall see, but I like the "look" so far. Thanks for watching! https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Let's try to keep the fantasy progs off the main pattern thread, please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Hey gang, new weather video is up! Talking about the storm for Thursday, Friday and Saturday, PLUS the clipper and what that potential could do for us. Then** we look ahead toward the **POTENTIAL** for another storm as we get closer to D10-11 *superbowl Sunday* The TRENDS are very promising and encouraging, but obviously its quite a bit of ways away. We shall see, but I like the "look" so far. Thanks for watching! https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons I appreciate the fact that you post alot in the SE threads, but it feels more like spam in here when this all you post in this sub forum. At least take the time to personalize and not cut and paste and drop in here. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 "The Dream Storm" is back on the 12z GFS for 240h onward. I'm not comfortable being in the bullseye this far out though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Certainly a week of hope. The Euro weeklies look better than they have all winter with a better looking pattern mid February and no above normal temps through all 4 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 The 0z GFS still has our storm at the end of 240 hours. This makes 3 runs in a row with the storm evolving in pretty much the same way with widespread snow. I'm waiting up on the Euro to see what it has. This is how our storm tomorrow looked on the GFS for a few runs a week ago. So it accurately showed the storm chance but just not details. This is a nice split flow look from what I can tell. We get some good Miller A storms from split flows.We just need some help from the northern stream to provide cold air which we are really lacking for tomorrow's storm. We also need for this energy(if it is still there on the models in a few days) to eject on out from the desert Southwest. A lot of times this winter energy has gotten stuck out there ruining some chances. I like the saying " you miss all the shots you never take" and think it applies here. We will never get a shot of a decent storm if the energy gets stuck out west and never ejects out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 0z Euro does what I was afraid it would do and squash our energy down to Baja California. It has a clipper/trough that comes out of Canada and cuts the flow off from the southwest. This is a well known bias of the model for hanging energy back but sometimes it ends up being correct. I'm going to slightly lean toward the GFS right now because it normally handles the energy better in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Anyone else not excited about the clipper? Surface temps look terrible and the vort pass is well north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Anyone else not excited about the clipper? Surface temps look terrible and the vort pass is well north. Nothing looks impressive today...lol.But you're right it cut the QPF's big time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Anyone else not excited about the clipper? Surface temps look terrible and the vort pass is well north. I was scratching my head looking at the snow output maps showing 1 to 2 inches while the surface freezing line was on the Ohio river for part of that lol. But, at least it shows the possibility of flakes flying so we have that going for us, which is nice I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 24, 2015 Author Share Posted January 24, 2015 Was looking at the CPC drought maps today. Northwest TN is in a developing drought. Surprised me. I think we have a few posters there. Would be interested to hear their take on things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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