tnweathernut Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Perfect track. Zero cold air to work with...unless something changes we will be left talking about dynamic cooling...that rarely happens. Is rather it just miss to the south. Perfect track and ample qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 The Euro ensembles give me hope that it's possible we get enough cold air. Various parts of the area get buried on several members. Should be an interesting week of model watching. I'll gladly take any clippers that feel like dropping down too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Models are starting to trend more northward,for the 23rd.The GFS and NAM are taking it through SE/GA and not N/FL,wetter look also as you should expect.NAM is colder as well,but i'm talking about the NAM at h84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Models are starting to trend more northward,for the 23rd.The GFS and NAM are taking it through SE/GA and not N/FL,wetter look also as you should expect.NAM is colder as well,but i'm talking about the NAM at h84 Yeah the GFS is interesting. Despite the marginal temps middle TN, upper cumberland, and far northeast TN manage to get a few inches. I hope the trend continues. Edit: The clipper is still on track and decently wet, but surface temps as modeled could hurt us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 12Z GFS perks up for both systems, but as stated above low level temperatures remain a challenge for most of us. We are coming off a lovely warm sunny period, and the surface high dropping into the Ohio Valley later this week is not impressive. Pressure barely tops 1030 and the air is of mild Pacific origin. Friday Saturday system that was buried in the Deep South has indeed shifted back north a bit. The dip and recover model trend during the extended period is nothing new, as noted in previous posts. Still low level temperatures are a challenge. Upper Plateau to Northeast Tennessee could get cold enough Friday. Then NAM/Euro hint at some back energy Friday night Saturday morning; but, it would have to manufacture its own cold, and lingering moisture is yet TBD. Then a Sunday Monday clipper could once again grace the Upper Plateau to Northeast Tenn. TRI looks good on the GFS. It is colder at 850 so maybe Nashville and Knoxville see some flurries. However surface looks too warm from Chattanooga to Huntsville, and Chatty usually does poorly in NW flow. Now the 00Z Euro tries to send a weak piece of energy into the Deep South, but the 00Z Canadian has everything north, so the GFS is a compromise. Late edit update: 12Z Euro punts the southern piece Sun/Mon until offshore, and surface feature is north like Canadian. Still gets Upper Plateau to TRI snow showers back side, but sfc low south would be better. 12Z Canadian keeps its 00Z feel. GFS is only one with sfc low tracking south through East Tenn. Beyond that the pattern stays active but it is a mess to forecast. Key takeaway from a couple pages back may be the gradual shift south of the storm track into late winter. SER sometimes finally gets beat down, like last year. Remember no guarantee though; other years start cold with an early spring. This being Nino I do favor a more active back half of winter, even if just 2-3 weeks. Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 First, nrgjeff, than you for the excellent analysis. We greatly appreciate. Second, wow...the 12z Euro! Don't know what temps look like but it just goes nuts. Don't have access to the bells and whistles, but the PSU site looks crazy good. Edit: track looks superb...temps are close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Gonna be tough to get something out of the Fri-Sat storm by the Euro,like Jeff said the best place looks to be tri,maybe some wet back end flakes for us here in Middle.Nice looking system but but with marginal cold air and it's bringing up a warm nose,we usually know what happens.Best hope is the NAM right now..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 The 12z GFS was pretty dang nice out to 180. Looks like 2-6 inches total snow for most areas north of 40 from the Western Highland Rim and points East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 18z GFS spits out accumulating snow all the way back to middle TN (2-4 inch) amounts on the clown map. You can see totals from a post in the SE forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Yep, the 18z drops the hammer between 78-90hrs. Nashville, Cookeville, Crossville, then north of 40 in East Tennessee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 We will see if it happens, it's really almost a textbook track for large amounts of snow in the area. The clipper follows on it's heels still with a good chance of additional accumulations. Especially if there's decent snow on the ground. It will help significantly with boundry temp issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 12Z GFS perks up for both systems, but as stated above low level temperatures remain a challenge for most of us. We are coming off a lovely warm sunny period, and the surface high dropping into the Ohio Valley later this week is not impressive. Pressure barely tops 1030 and the air is of mild Pacific origin. Friday Saturday system that was buried in the Deep South has indeed shifted back north a bit. The dip and recover model trend during the extended period is nothing new, as noted in previous posts. Still low level temperatures are a challenge. Upper Plateau to Northeast Tennessee could get cold enough Friday. Then NAM/Euro hint at some back energy Friday night Saturday morning; but, it would have to manufacture its own cold, and lingering moisture is yet TBD. Then a Sunday Monday clipper could once again grace the Upper Plateau to Northeast Tenn. TRI looks good on the GFS. It is colder at 850 so maybe Nashville and Knoxville see some flurries. However surface looks too warm from Chattanooga to Huntsville, and Chatty usually does poorly in NW flow. Now the 00Z Euro tries to send a weak piece of energy into the Deep South, but the 00Z Canadian has everything north, so the GFS is a compromise. Late edit update: 12Z Euro punts the southern piece Sun/Mon until offshore, and surface feature is north like Canadian. Still gets Upper Plateau to TRI snow showers back side, but sfc low south would be better. 12Z Canadian keeps its 00Z feel. GFS is only one with sfc low tracking south through East Tenn. Beyond that the pattern stays active but it is a mess to forecast. Key takeaway from a couple pages back may be the gradual shift south of the storm track into late winter. SER sometimes finally gets beat down, like last year. Remember no guarantee though; other years start cold with an early spring. This being Nino I do favor a more active back half of winter, even if just 2-3 weeks. Cheers! Jeff, Thanks for popping in. It's always appreciated when you and other red taggers drop some knowledge in here.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I'd almost say start a thread if the 00z models show anything, just to keep the two systems separate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I'd almost say start a thread if the 00z models show anything, just to keep the two systems separate. Do it anyways bring the Valley some luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Snowfall output from 18z GFS over the next 7 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol Man Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Looks like MRX is at least discussing possibilities for the weekend... SATURDAY EVENING...THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST OFF THE EASTCOAST...AND A VERY BRIEF CLEARING PERIOD LOOKS POSSIBLE AS DRIER AIRMOVES IN. LIKE ALL GOOD THINGS...THIS CAN NOT LAST...AND A LOWPRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SHOOT DOWN FROM CANADA BRINGING MORE RAINAND SNOW CHANCES BEGINNING SUNDAY MIDDAY. WITH THE NORTH NORTHWESTFLOW FROM THIS SYSTEM...THE CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE MUCHHIGHER...AND THE SHOWERS WILL LAST LONGER. NOW HAVING SAIDTHAT...MUST STRESS THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MODELS PREDICTING THISFAR OUT IN TIME AND WITH THEIR APPARENT SNOWFALL BIAS THAT HASOCCURRED UP UNTIL NOW THIS WINTER. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILLDROP TO A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF THEEXTENDED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I am sincerely baffled by the snowfall bias that MRX is talking about on the models. We've had nothing showing significant snow within 120 hours to speak of since November that I recall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I am sincerely baffled by the snowfall bias that MRX is talking about on the models. We've had nothing showing significant snow within 120 hours to speak of since November that I recall. I was thinking the same thing. Also, thanks for taking one for the team and going to Nooga. I could use a dusting over here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Hey everyone, I know we all want some wintry weather, but you have to admit, the weather has been very nice lately. Lets talk about the storm coming out of the western gulf of mexico for Thur thru Sat. My thoughts and my forecast and we talk super clipper as well. Check out the video for more. Thanks for watching and sharing and liking my page. https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I could be wrong, but looks like a nice thump of snow coming for parts of mid TN on the NAM at 0z. At least fantasy snow, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I could be wrong, but looks like a nice thump of snow coming for parts of mid TN on the NAM at 0z. At least fantasy snow, lol. 3",Mid Tn through 63,fantasy this range like you said Edit:3" more likely is on the northern rim..1-2' for BNA and Mem,slightly less S/Mid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 It's close to being something and it's also close to being nothing,you want this to fall night time early morn by the looks,the Ozarks get a good thump by the looks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Fantasy snow maps are most likely over doing it,those qpfs would have to be pretty plentiful http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus®ion=us&pkg=asnow&runtime=2015012100&fh=84&xpos=0&ypos=282 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greyhound Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Love how the central and southern valley get Nada even in the fantasy mapps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Love how the central and southern valley get Nada even in the fantasy mapps Missed it by thiiiis much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Clipper is further S by the looks and a tad stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Total snow through 144 on the 0z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Total snow through 144 on the 0z GFS. image.jpg Being we haven't seen that much since 2011,it will look like 20" to us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 21, 2015 Author Share Posted January 21, 2015 0z Euro continues SLP on a perfect track. Temps are marginal. But I will take my chances with that track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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