tnweathernut Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Yeah that wasn't bad at all,let's hope it sticks with it Monday I am probably in the minority, but I'd like to see it remain warm through Christmas. I get the whole mood thing, but golf in December is a lot of fun. The weeklies today are about the only thing in current modeling that has given cold lovers any hope over the past week or so. Just glad to see an indication of something shutting off the PAC. Hope it happens and January and beyond can rock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 And suddenly it is okay to like the Euro weeklies! And I am with you...I would be happy with 3 or 4 wintry events without the extreme cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 5, 2014 Author Share Posted December 5, 2014 With almost all cold being erased from North America by mid-December...snow cover will diminish to our north. Once the cold returns it will take longer to get here and be shorter in duration until the snow pack builds. I think it is early January before we get sustained cold - doesn't mean we won't get passing shots of cold in mid-late December. Right now, the pattern just doesn't support cold or winter wx. Now, this cold, rainy miserable wx reminds me of the winters in the 90s when we had several strong Ninos. With a Nino in the Pacific potentially going basin wide, a -NAO becomes vastly more important. So right now I am going to ride the MJO and NAO this winter. Until those respond accordingly, I think the current pattern we are in persists. Anyone know what that little feature is doing in northwest Asia? Is it gone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 5, 2014 Author Share Posted December 5, 2014 Basically, I think everyone could have taken climo this year for snow, bumped the temps up a bit, and saved themselves a lot of time and work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 And suddenly it is okay to like the Euro weeklies! And I am with you...I would be happy with 3 or 4 wintry events without the extreme cold.Lol. However, in case you and others don't realize it, the Thursday runs go out a full new week at the end (12/29-1/4 on yesterday's run). That is the week that shows solid cold in eastern North America. It wasn't reached in the prior run. So, it isn't as if the weeklies changed their tune. The prior run's week 4 looks fairly similar to yesterday's week 3. That is the transition week, Dec. 22-28, which is in the general vicinity when the mean of the Cohen analogs as well as years like 1939 transitioned back to a cold dominated pattern that then dominates much of the rest of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 And suddenly it is okay to like the Euro weeklies! And I am with you...I would be happy with 3 or 4 wintry events without the extreme cold. I look for things that are in agreement. Since the analog packages I have seen show a warm December transitioning into a cold pattern toward January I can buy them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 With almost all cold being erased from North America by mid-December...snow cover will diminish to our north. Once the cold returns it will take longer to get here and be shorter in duration until the snow pack builds. I think it is early January before we get sustained cold - doesn't mean we won't get passing shots of cold in mid-late December. Right now, the pattern just doesn't support cold or winter wx. Now, this cold, rainy miserable wx reminds me of the winters in the 90s when we had several strong Ninos. With a Nino in the Pacific potentially going basin wide, a -NAO becomes vastly more important. So right now I am going to ride the MJO and NAO this winter. Until those respond accordingly, I think the current pattern we are in persists. Anyone know what that little feature is doing in northwest Asia? Is it gone? It will be fascinating to watch play out. I would lean colder and snowier than normal for January and February, in light of the evidence laid out by many, but the sample sizes aren't exactly large enough to bet the house on and there are exceptions to every rule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Lol. However, in case you and others don't realize it, the Thursday runs go out a full new week at the end (12/29-1/4 on yesterday's run). That is the week that shows solid cold in eastern North America. It wasn't reached in the prior run. So, it isn't as if the weeklies changed their tune. The prior run's week 4 looks fairly similar to yesterday's week 3. That is the transition week, Dec. 22-28, which is in the general vicinity when the mean of the Cohen analogs as well as years like 1939 transitioned back to a cold dominated pattern that then dominates much of the rest of the winter. You miss my point, Larry...I have been given hell for talking about weeklies (circa 2013) and just how bad they are...primarily only when they show cold are they good. I think the pattern is going to be just fine in Jan Feb...I have never thought otherwise...I don't know about the 1940 extreme but I have never thought torch winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 You miss my point, Larry...I have been given hell for talking about weeklies (circa 2013) and just how bad they are...primarily only when they show cold are they good. I think the pattern is going to be just fine in Jan Feb...I have never thought otherwise...I don't know about the 1940 extreme but I have never thought torch winter. Good points. I have always wondered why so many people lead people toward an extreme (not an attack against Larry here). It just seems like trying to hit a straight flush via the turn and river playing poker with your buddies, or the grand prize on a slot machine at the local casino. We can, and probably will have a winter (Jan-Feb) with multiple snow and/or ice opportunities. Can it go extreme? Sure. Can it more easily not, absolutely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 You miss my point, Larry...I have been given hell for talking about weeklies (circa 2013) and just how bad they are...primarily only when they show cold are they good. I think the pattern is going to be just fine in Jan Feb...I have never thought otherwise...I don't know about the 1940 extreme but I have never thought torch winter. Oh, ok. I thought you were were talking about the warm weeklies of the last couple of weeks in comparison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Good points. I have always wondered why so many people lead people toward an extreme (not an attack against Larry here). It just seems like trying to hit a straight flush via the turn and river playing poker with your buddies, or the grand prize on a slot machine at the local casino. We can, and probably will have a winter (Jan-Feb) with multiple snow and/or ice opportunities. Can it go extreme? Sure. Can it more easily not, absolutely. tnwxnut, Don't worry. I'm not taking that as an attack on me since I haven't over the dozen or so years I've been posting on wx bb's often talked about extreme possibilities and when I do I make sure the reader realize that an extreme outcome is still only a reasonable possibility. To reiterate my position for 2014-5, I do feel that an extreme situation resembling 1939-40 is a good bit more possible than for most winters due to the reasons that I've repeatedly shown. For most winters, it is not even worth discussing because it is such a remote possibility. However, for this winter, I think it is worth discussing since I do feel it is a very reasonable possibility. Since I started posting during the winter of 2001-2 at WWBB, I'm admittedly much more excited about the possibility than usual since this is the first year since then that practically all favorable indicators/indices are looking to line up. I was excited about 2009-10 possibilities, too, in advance of it but not to this degree. Anyway, do you think I'm looking at this reasonably? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 tnwxnut, Don't worry. I'm not taking that as an attack on me since I haven't over the dozen or so years I've been posting on wx bb's often talked about extreme possibilities and when I do I make sure the reader realize that an extreme outcome is still only a reasonable possibility. To reiterate my position for 2014-5, I do feel that an extreme situation resembling 1939-40 is a good bit more possible than for most winters due to the reasons that I've repeatedly shown. For most winters, it is not even worth discussing because it is such a remote possibility. However, for this winter, I think it is worth discussing since I do feel it is a reasonable possibility. Since I started posting during the winter of 2001-2 at WWBB, I'm admittedly much more excited about the possibility than usual since this is the first year since then that practically all favorable indicators/indices are looking to line up. I was excited about 2009-10 possibilities, too, in advance of it but not to this degree. Anyway, do you think I'm looking at this reasonably? Larry I think you are being reasonable even with the extreme year of 1939-1940 on the table. You've been posting here for years with sound research and incredible statistics. You have always been reasonable with outlooks, analogs. and discussions. You have always backed up your thoughts with data. It would be one thing if a poster kept saying this winter would be like 39-40 without any reasoning behind it, but you have the statistics to show that this year COULD be like 39-40. That's the thing with the weather. No two events are alike and no two years are alike either. There are just too many variables that have to the be the same to get two winters to be the same. Will 2014-2015 be just like 39-40? Most likely not but it can be similar and not as extreme. Analogs are the best thing we have to give us an idea as to what could happen this winter. 1939-1940 is coming up as an analog for a reason. I think it is reasonable to show this winter as a possibility while stating that it is an extreme. I hope some of that makes sense. My point is that we have no clue what will happen and all options (even the extreme ones) are on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 The December warmth isn't totally shocking to me, nor unwelcome at all. I can't recall a fall/winter that got and stayed cold for 4 months straight. We often have 2-4 week periods in winter where either warmth or cold dominates. I prefer seeing it start in early December rather than early January. I still like the winter to be decently cold and snowy. We had the coldest November in 50 years or more. Fall years with cold November's in Knoxville tended to produce memorable winters for the most part over the last 50 years. At 41.6 mean, this November was colder than 1995, which had been the coldest November in Knoxville in the last 50 years. On the other hand, winters where the mean temp was greater than 48 tended to be unremarkable more often than not, if not down right warm and nearly snowless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Larry, I think you explained yourself well. 1939-1940 is not an unreasonable possibility. It may be extreme but not extremely unlikely. A reasonable possibility is a great way to describe it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Larry, I think you explained yourself well. 1939-1940 is not an unreasonable possibility. It may be extreme but not extremely unlikely. A reasonable possibility is a great way to describe it. I was going to respond with a post of my own, but this summarizes my feelings nicely. Also.......Thanks Larry, I always enjoy your statistical viewpoints. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 The GFS has a decent trough over e TN at about 100+ hours onwards. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 tnwxnut, Don't worry. I'm not taking that as an attack on me since I haven't over the dozen or so years I've been posting on wx bb's often talked about extreme possibilities and when I do I make sure the reader realize that an extreme outcome is still only a reasonable possibility. To reiterate my position for 2014-5, I do feel that an extreme situation resembling 1939-40 is a good bit more possible than for most winters due to the reasons that I've repeatedly shown. For most winters, it is not even worth discussing because it is such a remote possibility. However, for this winter, I think it is worth discussing since I do feel it is a very reasonable possibility. Since I started posting during the winter of 2001-2 at WWBB, I'm admittedly much more excited about the possibility than usual since this is the first year since then that practically all favorable indicators/indices are looking to line up. I was excited about 2009-10 possibilities, too, in advance of it but not to this degree. Anyway, do you think I'm looking at this reasonably? I cringe at calling the climatological extreme a reasonable possibility a month out. But as always, your correlations and statistical research/input are always great stuff. Jan '40 only lost out to 77 by 0.2 degrees but won the snow war in Chatt by a mile...If you end up being right, perhaps a lucrative job at a hedge fund awaits!!!!! Interesting thing I had not seen before on the NWS web site...you can actually go back quite a ways on some climo stuff that I used to dig up at weather underground...perhaps it had always been there and I just missed it.... http://www.nws.noaa.gov/climate/xmacis.php?wfo=mrx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 The GFS has a decent trough over e TN at about 100+ hours onwards. Thoughts? Probably will just bring a cold front through with a day or two of colder temps then it lifts out and the warm pattern keeps going. That would be my guess. Haven't looked at the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 I cringe at calling the climatological extreme a reasonable possibility a month out. But as always, your correlations and statistical research/input are always great stuff. Jan '40 only lost out to 77 by 0.2 degrees but won the snow war in Chatt by a mile...If you end up being right, perhaps a lucrative job at a hedge fund awaits!!!!! Interesting thing I had not seen before on the NWS web site...you can actually go back quite a ways on some climo stuff that I used to dig up at weather underground...perhaps it had always been there and I just missed it.... http://www.nws.noaa.gov/climate/xmacis.php?wfo=mrx Lol, thanks. Also, thanks to 1234snow, Marietta, and tnwxnut for your comments. More importantly, thanks very much for posting that link! A number of years back the daily data for each month back to the late 1800's was online for at least KATL. I looked at it often. Then it was suddenly taken off. Now, it appears it was brought back for all cities back in March, 2014! This is absolutely awesome to see! I know what I'll be doing for the next few days in my spare time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Interesting thing I had not seen before on the NWS web site...you can actually go back quite a ways on some climo stuff that I used to dig up at weather underground...perhaps it had always been there and I just missed it.... http://www.nws.noaa.gov/climate/xmacis.php?wfo=mrx Place this in the helpful links thread too, if you don't mind. Awesome addition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation Cohen AO update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation Cohen AO update Good read and thanks for posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 I cringe at calling the climatological extreme a reasonable possibility a month out. But as always, your correlations and statistical research/input are always great stuff. Jan '40 only lost out to 77 by 0.2 degrees but won the snow war in Chatt by a mile...If you end up being right, perhaps a lucrative job at a hedge fund awaits!!!!! Interesting thing I had not seen before on the NWS web site...you can actually go back quite a ways on some climo stuff that I used to dig up at weather underground...perhaps it had always been there and I just missed it.... http://www.nws.noaa.gov/climate/xmacis.php?wfo=mrx Never seen that either,OHX has it as well http://www.nws.noaa.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=ohx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 6, 2014 Author Share Posted December 6, 2014 https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation Cohen AO update Judah is a guru. Mercy, what a great read. Also, great discussion here today everyone. Something to be proud of. Judging by the page view numbers, more than a few folks are reading it. As for Cohen's article, it is loaded with great informaion. How am I just now hearing about this person? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Judah is a guru. Mercy, what a great read. Also, great discussion here today everyone. Something to be proud of. Judging by the page view numbers, more than a few folks are reading it. As for Cohen's article, it is loaded with great informaion. How am I just now hearing about this person? He's a tool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Judah is a guru. Mercy, what a great read. Also, great discussion here today everyone. Something to be proud of. Judging by the page view numbers, more than a few folks are reading it. As for Cohen's article, it is loaded with great informaion. How am I just now hearing about this person? Yeah a great read over here today guys. Hopefully we can start to transition here in a few weeks to a more likable pattern. Will be fun tracking it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 The site from MRX above shows why the vastly lower snow average for 1990-2010 happened. Tons of missing data from some very snowy years. That site shows .8 inches of new snow for February 2nd 1996 but a snow depth that goes from 0 to 8 inches from the 1st to the second. I'd guess close to 20 inches fell in the winter of 1995-1996 in Knoxville but it lists a total of 5.9 inches of new snow in January and February of that year with only 0.9 listed for all of February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Just wanted to chime in and say that I appreciate all of the contributions to the discussion of winter so far. I'm sure I'm not alone in that I've been busy as hell and not as involved as I'd like to be, but still glued to the sub-forum daily. I imagine we'll have a real threat to track before too awful long and the excitement will build. Also, the older I get the more I fall into the camp of "if it's not going to snow, it might as well be tolerable outside." Mostly because if my kids are cooped up too long, we get crazy up in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 6, 2014 Author Share Posted December 6, 2014 The site from MRX above shows why the vastly lower snow average for 1990-2010 happened. Tons of missing data from some very snowy years. That site shows .8 inches of new snow for February 2nd 1996 but a snow depth that goes from 0 to 8 inches from the 1st to the second. I'd guess close to 20 inches fell in the winter of 1995-1996 in Knoxville but it lists a total of 5.9 inches of new snow in January and February of that year with only 0.9 listed for all of February. I agree. I lived in Knoxville during that time frame and can say those numbers are wrong - too low. Now, we had a lot of ice then when areas just outside of Knoxville were hammered w/ snow. But still, more than 5.9". Look-up how many days Knoxville schools had to make-up due to the snow - was a crazy amount. However, I can't say this strongly enough, somebody has tampered w/ the climatological data at TRI. No doubt about it. I confronted MRX on FB several months(March) ago when I noticed the snowfall records had been changed...long standing records were changed. I took screenshots of my FB conversation w/ them to save just in case. But I am 100% certain data was "lost" or removed. Consequently, it has made the 90s(terrible snow years minus some memorable storms) look far worse than they actually were. Removing the 95-96 data is like removing the 93 blizzard...very big snow year. And I ask, why would someone want the climatological data at KTRI to appear less snowy than it really was? The response I received from KTRI is that the data is lost or missing....even though I found it on the web!!!! Here is a graph from SRH.NOAA. In the age of computers and the fact that during the 90s we kept double records(hard drives and paper), that data is not lost. I work for the government, the data is redundant - no doubt about it. Things don't get "lost" unless someone wants it lost. That is about all I will say unless we want to begin a new thread about the missing data. But clearly, there is much data missing. Thank you for bringing up the point. I know your family has kept its own records, which might be helpful in this matter. If you all want to see the actual conversation, I will be glad to PM you since the screenshot has my FB name and don't want to post them on the net. In March, they were actually trying to lower the yearly record from 51 in to 29 in. I called them on it, and they left it alone or changed it back. Still, the seasonal record is around 33, and I feel certain that should be much, much higher. Interestingly, I can pull Kingsport's records for the 95-96' time frame and they show the big storm. Now, sometimes there can be a descrepancy between the two cities(JC/KPT)...but this is a 12" descrepancy between Kingsport and the airport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 6, 2014 Author Share Posted December 6, 2014 0z Euro at day 10 is hinting at a western ridge, eastern trough. Normally, I could care less about the day 10 Euro. However, the 0z GFS and 6z GFS are showing a similar pattern to some extent. I would take the details w/ a grain of salt. However, I think the models are hinting at a gradual pattern change around December 20th. That would seem to mesh w/ the weeklies that were discussed yesterday. Overall, cold returns to N America and the lower 48(according to today's models) around Christmas. I would look for a lag due to lack of cold. It will take some time to rebuild the supply. So, around Christmas day(give or take 2-3 days) the cold returns... And Mr. Bob, I remember reading those weekly posts you referenced where no one wanted to believe them. After that winter, I was a believer. If every model was pointing the other direction, but the weeklies said, "Warm...." I am going w/ the weeklies. Last winter, they also did a great job w/ the depth and duration of the cold in January. edit: Just checked CPC's NAO, PNA, and AO ensembles. All hint at blocking in the east by mid-late December. The NAO is finally making a turn downward. Another thing to watch, as we all know, is when the NAO takes a dip...often a storm accompanies it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.