jaxjagman Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Best run yet but i'm still skeptical if there is convection down south if this will steal the mojo from this system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 I really think qpf will be there, but will it be cold enough? That part I am not optimistic about, unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 I really think qpf will be there, but will it be cold enough? That part I am not optimistic about, unfortunately. Not surewhat to think about the GFS, its now showing convection into the valleymid week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 10, 2015 Author Share Posted January 10, 2015 Next weekend, the GFS showing a little bit of hope - 0z and 12z. I am still amazed at how bad the Euro has been. Another model war shaping up...GFS hinting at repeated cold vs Euro semi-torch. Up to this point the Euro does not smell it unless just under its nose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Up until the last week the warming at 10mb over the pole was relegated to the Pacific side of things. In the last week there has been strong warming on the Atlantic side of things too. If you could see the loop you would likely be impressed. 10mb is just over 100k feet, so it's WAY up there, but this development on the Atlantic side of things could be the precursor to the shake up of the AO. Time will tell, but some of the American ensemble modeling is seeing the demise if the strongly + AO as we head into the last week or so of January and this fits with a late winter weak or warm neutral El Niño. Overall, I remain optimistic for the winter. Why not, it's not like we can change any of it.....lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 10, 2015 Author Share Posted January 10, 2015 12z Euro next Thursday. Any discussion warranted? Looks interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 10, 2015 Author Share Posted January 10, 2015 Up until the last week the warming at 10mb over the pole was relegated to the Pacific side of things. In the last week there has been strong warming on the Atlantic side of things too. If you could see the loop you would likely be impressed. 10mb is just over 100k feet, so it's WAY up there, but this development on the Atlantic side of things could be the precursor to the shake up of the AO. Time will tell, but some of the American ensemble modeling is seeing the demise if the strongly + AO as we head into the last week or so of January and this fits with a late winter weak or warm neutral El Niño. Overall, I remain optimistic for the winter. Why not, it's not like we can change any of it.....lol. CPC agrees. Wowza. In...the...tank! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 This area could be the best spot to see something wintry next week, outside the CAD regions. I talk a bit about that, if y'all want to watch the video.. If not, no worries. Maybe like my FB if you want as well please.. Update on the rest of your weekend weather, when will the rain arrive, and how cold? PLUS, could something wintry be brewing for **PORTIONS** of the SE next week? Watch the video for more details on YOUR forecast. Thanks for watching and please hit the invite button on my page to invite your Facebook friends, I really appreciate it! Have a great day. -Chris https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 10, 2015 Author Share Posted January 10, 2015 At least something interesting, albeit on the light side, to follow... FXUS64 KMRX 102003AFDMRXAREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN303 PM EST SAT JAN 10 2015.SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT WILL KEEPWINDS LIGHT AND SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR. SUNDAY...CLOUDS WILL INCREASEAHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM...BECOMING OVERCAST BY LATE SUNDAYMORNING. DEWPOINTS WILL FINALLY RISE IN TO THE DOUBLE DIGITS ASMOISTURE IS ADVECTED IN TO THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT AND MOST OFSUNDAY. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHTSHOWERS BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...ANDTHE MAIN AREA OF RAIN ARRIVING AFTER 7 PM SUNDAY NIGHT. WITHTHAT...TRIED TO SHOW A GRADUAL INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTTHROUGH THE LATE SUNDAY PERIOD.TONIGHT...HAVE RAISED LOW TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO IN RESPONSETO TODAYS INCREASED TEMPERATURES...BUT STILL EXPECT THETEMPERATURES TO BE ON AVERAGE 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL. SUNDAYSHIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES THAN THEPAST SEVERAL DAYS...BUT WILL STILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER..LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...SOUTHWESTERLY FETCHALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK...BRINGING ANEXTENDED PERIOD OF PRECIP CHANCES...MAINLY LIGHT IN INTENSITY.INITIALLY...WE HAVE A PROLONGED COLD RAIN EVENT WITH LIKELY ORCATEGORICAL POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. POPS DROP TO CHANCE-TYPEVALUES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...COLD AIR WILL BEENCROACHING BACK INTO THE PICTURE FROM THE NORTH...THUS THERE WILLBE BRIEF STRETCHES FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNINGWHEN LIGHT FREEZING RAIN COULD OCCUR OVER THE PLATEAU...NORTHERNVALLEY...AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE EAST. AS A SHORTWAVESYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATER WED INTO THURSDAY...THECOOLING TEMPERATURE PROFILE ALOFT MAY PERMIT CHANGE FROM ZR- TO S-.THIS SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH ALL OF THE PRECIP EASTWARD OUT OF THE AREALATE THURSDAY...WITH FAIR WEATHER FRI AND SAT. SATURDAY MIGHT EVENDARE TO BE A PRETTY DAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 System looks even more S today,no longer see the inverted trough in the Valley mid week.Lets see what the models show tonight but its not looking good Edit:you guys in the east still have a shot,but mid to west looks bleak IMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 CPC agrees. Wowza. In...the...tank! image.jpg Yup,there is signs of hope towards the last week of Jan.The epo is showing signs of crashing as well as the graph TWN posted of the AO, We are also seeing some signs of a finally -nao of sorts.Maybe we can get a crazy storm down the road from a split flow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 11, 2015 Author Share Posted January 11, 2015 I think after the next ten days...it's make or break time for winter. If the models show now winter threats(as they have done so for all of December and the first half of January) by say Jan 25th, time to mail it in....I have stated and continue to state that winter probably will show the last week of January and continue through a good portion of February. So, I still think we get winter. The models have been insistent that the next ten days or so will be very, very vanilla. It's after that where the AO appears to be ready to tank. Finally, it looks like cold air is going to make it southeastward. However, if the models are wrong like they were about the late December cold snap that never happened, the game is up. Right now though, I would say there is roughly a 75% chance things get pretty dicey. Seems like Nino climo is just due to take over. The CPC ensembles show a potentially, very negative AO by late month. It is my opinion with the southern stream so active that the cold will spread eastward quite quickly once it flips. In other words, it won't stay in the west no matter what the Euro at some point will show. Late January and February seem to be like the climo money time for Ninos in the Tennessee Valley. I see no reason up to this point to think otherwise. Sure, we could draw a bad card like I mentioned in the first paragraph. However, this current cold spell should serve as a reminder that this winter can turn on a dime. I have been bearish this winter due to the teleconnection indices. If CPC continues to show a -AO, I will be more bullish with each passing day...no matter what the models say. Those indices were correct in predicting last January's flip to cold. There are some good signs out there now that things are about to get cold and stormy. But first we need to get through the "thaw" of the next ten days. After that, I think we will know the final hand that winter has dealt us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvskelton Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 MRX has issued a SWS about possible ZR and freezing fog in some areas by Tuesday morning. SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN317 AM EST MON JAN 12 2015TNZ012>018-035>037-041-043>047-067-072-074-081-082-098-VAZ001-002-005-006-008-122000-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-MARION-LEE-WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ONEIDA...LA FOLLETTE...TAZEWELL...SNEEDVILLE...ROGERSVILLE...KINGSPORT...BRISTOL...MOUNTAIN CITY...WARTBURG...CLINTON...OAK RIDGE...MAYNARDVILLE...COSBY...CEDAR CREEK...JOHNSON CITY...ERWIN...ELIZABETHTON...ROAN MOUNTAIN...KINGSTON...CADES COVE...GATLINBURG...DUNLAP...PIKEVILLE...JASPER...JONESVILLE...WISE...NORTON...GATE CITY...LEBANON...ABINGDON317 AM EST MON JAN 12 2015...LIGHT ICING POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT.THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE TAPERING OFF LATER TONIGHT. A COLDERAIRMASS WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT.TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING BY EARLY TUESDAYACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTTENNESSEE AND MUCH OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ANDFREEZING FOG IS POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY MORNING. WET SURFACE WILLBEGIN TO FREEZE.FREEZING IS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR ON ELEVATED SURFACE SUCH ATREES...ROOF TOPS AND POWER LINES. SOME ICING IS POSSIBLE ONROADWAYS AND DRIVING MAY BECOME HAZARDOUS. | Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 The Euro Ens has been consistent in rebuilding the Alaskan ridge the last week of January which was also supported by the last run on the weeklies....It is going to get cold again but will we get a favorble configuration for a storm in the south....that is the part that is not clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 13, 2015 Author Share Posted January 13, 2015 GFS hinting at a nice pattern later this month...0z and 6z. Let's see if the 12z holds. This winter continues to fit Nino climo pretty well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 I think after the next ten days...it's make or break time for winter. If the models show now winter threats(as they have done so for all of December and the first half of January) by say Jan 25th, time to mail it in....I have stated and continue to state that winter probably will show the last week of January and continue through a good portion of February. So, I still think we get winter. The models have been insistent that the next ten days or so will be very, very vanilla. It's after that where the AO appears to be ready to tank. Finally, it looks like cold air is going to make it southeastward. However, if the models are wrong like they were about the late December cold snap that never happened, the game is up. Right now though, I would say there is roughly a 75% chance things get pretty dicey. Seems like Nino climo is just due to take over. The CPC ensembles show a potentially, very negative AO by late month. It is my opinion with the southern stream so active that the cold will spread eastward quite quickly once it flips. In other words, it won't stay in the west no matter what the Euro at some point will show. Late January and February seem to be like the climo money time for Ninos in the Tennessee Valley. I see no reason up to this point to think otherwise. Sure, we could draw a bad card like I mentioned in the first paragraph. However, this current cold spell should serve as a reminder that this winter can turn on a dime. I have been bearish this winter due to the teleconnection indices. If CPC continues to show a -AO, I will be more bullish with each passing day...no matter what the models say. Those indices were correct in predicting last January's flip to cold. There are some good signs out there now that things are about to get cold and stormy. But first we need to get through the "thaw" of the next ten days. After that, I think we will know the final hand that winter has dealt us. I appreciate your view point but disagree about giving up by January 25th. The models haven't impressed me with an ability to see much beyond a week or so. Late January to late February is prime time climo for this area. There is no way I'd give up just when we're entering that sweet spot. February 25th? Maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 I appreciate your view point but disagree about giving up by January 25th. The models haven't impressed me with an ability to see much beyond a week or so. Late January to late February is prime time climo for this area. There is no way I'd give up just when we're entering that sweet spot. February 25th? Maybe. I agree. I don't see why anyone would punt a whole month especially during prime climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 14, 2015 Author Share Posted January 14, 2015 Little bit of an overreaction there fellas. Read the whole post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 I know the models have burned us a bunch this year, but regardless of their specific details, the overall pattern is looking really promising. I consider January 15th to February 15th the heart of winter in East Tennessee. It's our coldest and snowiest 30 days of winter. The heart is looking very primed this year. We had a minor event the last 24 hours. We may have another one tomorrow. We may have another Sunday night. Then pretty much all the models currently have a big storm coming in around 7-8 days. With the GFS being pretty much perfect for us. Keep in mind too, that this is in the high resolution timeframe for the new GFS. Exciting possibilities with potential large snow followed by extreme cold. Hopefully this solution gets reeled in and actually comes to pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 14, 2015 Author Share Posted January 14, 2015 12z Euro looked great today. Really a nice look. Elongated trough w/ just enough SE ridge. Would take that look all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 The Canadian also has good potential in the time frame. All seem to be showing a miller A followed by an arctic plunge. The track details will change many times but hopefully we can keep the general look in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 12z Euro looked great today. Really a nice look. Elongated trough w/ just enough SE ridge. Would take that look all day. You guys should see the Euro Control Snow map over the next 15 days. It's "drool worthy". Wait, most of you can see it, I pm'd it to you guys..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 The 12z Euro ensemble members are perking up for the time period in question. Seeing 2 or 3 big dogs at TRI, TYS, and CSV with quite a few members over 2 inches even at BNA. Tempered exuberance at this point but today's modeling certainly has my attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 A LOT of what transpires later is going to be affected by the storm that develops Monday in the northeast. We need it to bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 The GFS is suppressing our storm south while the Euro is cutting it up through the Ohio valley. Quite a bit of potential shown throughout the runs though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Still long range, yes, but the last week of January on all the major globals has my hopes up for the first time this winter. The pattern looks very wintry! Perhaps a good sign for February? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Still long range, yes, but the last week of January on all the major globals has my hopes up for the first time this winter. The pattern looks very wintry! Perhaps a good sign for February? Good post. I see one of two things happening in days 7+ to day 40. Either we finally flip the AO and have wintry threats coming, or the pattern persists and we oscillate between periods of cold/very cold and dry, followed by brief warmups with rain. There are good signs, but no real way to know for sure at this point.... Either way, what lies ahead of us is the best look we have gotten all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 12z Euro has the Saturday week storm a little too south and high pressure a little too weak, but the setup is not bad at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 12z Euro has the Saturday week storm a little too south and high pressure a little too weak, but the setup is not bad at all. Slowed down almost a day for some reason,either way this run is much colder than the 0Z.Baby steps towards the right direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 What a beautiful closed west coast ridge that develops on the 12z Euro. Should be able to get some cold into the pattern with that. Will be a waiting game to see how it plays out and though a Miller B is likely more probable than a Miller A, we can still score with either in parts of the mid-south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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