Stovepipe Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Euro is a nice little hit of snow (per the clown maps) for northeastern Arkansas (5-6 inches), northwestern TN 2-4.5 inch amounts, and 1-3 inch amounts for northern central TN. The main band of 2-4 inch snows is aimed from northeastern AR into most of KY. All from a very weak Miller A that forms around southern LA, before weakening as it moves east to east northeast off the coast. So the Euro is firing off the first warning shots of January, interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 By my text, MEM, would be ice warning criteria .5".The Euro shows more over running and cooler.Looks like a little sn Wed.,wont add up to much but something to watch out your window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Hopefully this isn't turning into a winter 2007 or 08. One of those it would get really cold, be very dry, then warm up enough for rain, rinse and repeat. With the current forecast of a frigid but dry arctic front (we can occasionally squeeze out an inch or two with these fronts) followed by it warming up just enough for rain through the weekend it's looking like a reloading pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Well the Para comes in with a snow even for a good portion of the Valley from Northern Miss and NW ward. Nashville is on the edge. Points east are around 2-4 inches. Northern Louisiana gets buried in 10-15 inches. The main GFS has snowfall in the same areas, but much less due to sleet/zr issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Well the Para comes in with a snow even for a good portion of the Valley from Northern Miss and NW ward. Nashville is on the edge. Points east are around 2-4 inches. Northern Louisiana gets buried in 10-15 inches. The main GFS has snowfall in the same areas, but much less due to sleet/zr issues. I looked at the meteograms and the model average is about a third of an inch (if that) for TYS. I don't know if the Para is better and handling these types of things or not, but I sure would like a better consensus on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 The 06z has more frozen precip on both the GFS and the Para. The para has a couple of events through 240 that drop a few inches across the state. The GFS has a much more icy solution for the 120-140 hours time frame for a good portion of the Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Text output shows probably .3 ice in Crossville. About the same in Nashville with frigid temps in the 20s. Memphis also gets an icy mess. Much warmer in the far Eastern sections with Knox maybe getting a little bit of zr before switching to rain and temps in the mid 30s. Looks like plateau and west and far NE TN get frozen and the central valley of East Tennessee does just enough to get rain. As mentioned, the Para is colder, has snow north of 40 and zr even down to Chattanooga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Text output shows probably .3 ice in Crossville. About the same in Nashville with frigid temps in the 20s. Memphis also gets an icy mess. Much warmer in the far Eastern sections with Knox maybe getting a little bit of zr before switching to rain and temps in the mid 30s. Looks like plateau and west and far NE TN get frozen and the central valley of East Tennessee does just enough to get rain. As mentioned, the Para is colder, has snow north of 40 and zr even down to Chattanooga. Hard to tell which one is right the GFS vs the Euro two total differemt looks at the H5 and the Euro looks much slower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 The 12z Canadian is really wet for parts of middle TN and icy for parts of western TN. Probably too wet, but with the GFS backing off precip amounts, I wanted to show there is still a lot of uncertainty. FWIW, the para GFS is a big QPF maker for parts of the Carolinas, showing an icy solution there. Next up, the Euro. These kinds of maps come from the model suite at American. If you do not subscribe (9.95 a month.... I think), I highly recommend for you to join! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Canadian 72 hr QPF valid hr 180 01062015.png The 12z Canadian is really wet for parts of middle TN and icy for parts of western TN. Probably too wet, but with the GFS backing off precip amounts, I wanted to show there is still a lot of uncertainty. FWIW, the para GFS is a big QPF maker for parts of the Carolinas, showing an icy solution there. Next up, the Euro. These kinds of maps come from the model suite at American. If you do not subscribe (9.95 a month.... I think), I highly recommend for you to join! Seeing an inverted trough,should be more over running in the Valley than what the GFS is showing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Seeing an inverted trough,should be more over running in the Valley than what the GFS is showing The Euro gave a nice little snow/ice event yesterday at 12z, so several models are seeing (or have given the look) the potential for overrunning coming. Will be interesting to see which way this goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Canadian 72 hr QPF valid hr 180 01062015.png The 12z Canadian is really wet for parts of middle TN and icy for parts of western TN. Probably too wet, but with the GFS backing off precip amounts, I wanted to show there is still a lot of uncertainty. FWIW, the para GFS is a big QPF maker for parts of the Carolinas, showing an icy solution there. Next up, the Euro. These kinds of maps come from the model suite at American. If you do not subscribe (9.95 a month.... I think), I highly recommend for you to join! Gotta say the GGEM is staying consistent as the cold biased,it's not backing off is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Euro is still slower and warmer,nothing much for anyone right now,other than cold rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Euro is still slower and warmer,nothing much for anyone right now,other than cold rain A lot of differences in timing and strength with what comes down the pipeline through the southern branch days 6-10, and IMO all the models will continue to struggle with a lot of the details. Timing will be critical (when is it not) when it comes to any winter threat for the southeast, but it's not a zero possibility type of situation. We have several large highs showing with some sort of jet underneath. I would add that occasionally we can get into a pattern where we see a surprise that pops up in the 3-4 day time frame. This might be one of those time periods moving forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 New weather video is up, and we talk the Arctic cold, and my thoughts on what the Weekend weather might or might not bring. Thanks for watching everyone! -Chris https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Sure it will change many more times.But finally the GFS see's some over running,just wish the 850's were better.Still wonder if it's pulling the cold air out to fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSIONNWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD1233 AM EST WED JAN 07 2015 VALID 12Z SAT JAN 10 2015 - 12Z WED JAN 14 2015 ...UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT/MODEL PREFERENCES...CONTINUE TO LIKE THE ECENS/ECMWF SOLUTION AND ITS SOUTHERN STREAMSOLUTION FOR THE GRADUAL SOUTH TO NORTH EROSION OF THEMODIFIED-ARCTIC SURFACE RIDGE---EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI.LIKEWISE...WITH THE EMERGENCE OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY MIGRATION ACROSSTHE RIO GRANDE AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THERE IS SOME DEGREE OFVARIABILITY WITH TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES TRANSITING THEGULF OF MEXICO---BUT ESSENTIALLY---THE ECENS COULD BE FOLLOWED FORTHE ENTIRE DAY 4-7 PERIOD...FROM WEST COAST TO EAST COAST. THOUGHT THE MAIN REASON FOR THE VARIABILITY IN THE SOUTHERN STREAMWAS THE CURRENT NATURE/MOMENTUM OF THE WEAK/BENIGN UPPER-LEVEL LOWLOCATED INVOF 27N 120W. ITS PRESENCE...EVENTUAL BREAKDOWN...ANDMIGRATION INTO THE DOWNSTREAM FLOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...RIOGRANDE...SOUTHERNMOST DIVIDE AND WEST TEXAS REGION HAS PROVIDEDTHE RUN-TO-RUN P-TYPE FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. IN GENERAL...THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS THE ONE REGION WHERE ANORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND NORTHERN STREAM 'SHEARING' INFLUENCE ISABSENT. AND THIS IS THE AREA WHERE THE DETERMINISTICGUIDANCE---THE 7/00Z DETERMINISTIC GFS INCLUDED---OFFER THE BESTPROSPECTS FOR LOW-LEVEL ORGANIZATION OF SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGYTHIS FORECAST PERIOD. AND ALTHOUGH...SOME RUNS LIKE THE IDEA OFTAKING SOUTHERN MID-LEVEL ENERGY NORTHEASTWARD INTO THELOWER-TO-MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY...THERE IS TOO MUCH NORTHWESTERLYSHEAR ALOFT AND DRY/MODIFIED-ARCTIC AIR TO GENERATE AND/ORMAINTAIN EVEN WEAK LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS. WITH THIS IN MIND---ADAY 4-5 FRONTAL PASSAGE (WPC GRAPHICS) WILL BE FOR THE MOST PARTDRY---BUT WILL ALLOW SOME COOLER AIR TO REINFORCE THE SURFACERIDGE DOWNSTREAM OVER THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE NATION...THECENTRAL PLAINS AND REJUVENATE A LOCALIZED LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERPATTERN. THE MEDIUM RANGE FOCUS SHOULD REMAIN CENTERED IN THE WESTERN GULFOF MEXICO...AND FOR MORE THAN ONE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE TO BEGINMIGRATING NORTHWARD INTO THE COLD AIR. AND BEING A MEDIUM RANGEFORECAST...IT LEAVES SOME LEE-WAY FOR ADJUSTMENT FOR SOME WEAKERENERGY TO EJECT ATOP THE COLD AIRMASS AND SPREAD ACROSS THE OZARKSAND MID-MS AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS. THE PRECIPITATION MIGHT BE ONTHE LIGHT SIDE...BUT COULD CAUSE TRAVEL ISSUES. OVERALL...THOUGHTTHE SCENARIO---A SLOWER 'FLUSH OUT' OF THE ARCTIC HIGH...WAS BESTSERVED BY THE ECENS/ECMWF IDEA. ...SENSIBLE WEATHER...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSSTHE NORTHEAST AND GREAT LAKES---WITH SNOWFALL POTENTIAL IN THELAKES AND FAVORED UPSLOPE TERRAIN. A BROAD-SCALE OVER-RUNNING PRECIPITATION PATTERN FOR PORTIONS OFTEXAS...SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND A LARGE EXPANSE OF THE GULF COASTAND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST BEGINS TO EMERGE DURING THIS MEDIUM RANGEPERIOD. VOJTESAK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 From DT, taken from the MA forum....... IMO - If we can actually get to this look I would GLADLY punt any marginal opportunities in the next 10-15 days. "IF the winter is going to turn this it will be AFTER the JAN 16/17 - JAN 22/23 mild spell when the MJO moves into phase 7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSIONNWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD1105 AM EST WED JAN 07 2015 VALID 12Z SAT JAN 10 2015 - 12Z WED JAN 14 2015 ...PATTERN/SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS AND GUIDANCE/UNCERTAINTYASSESSMENT... WPC MEDIUM RANGE SURFACE FRONTS/PRESSURES AND 500 MB PROGS ALONGWITH HPCGUIDE GRIDS HAVE BEEN PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM A COMPOSITEBLEND OF REASONABLY COMPATABLE GUIDANCE FROM THE 06 UTC GFSPARELLEL/GEFS MEAN AND THE 00 UTC ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN DAYS3-5 FRI-SUN ALONG WITH WPC CONTINUITY. INCREASING DETERMINISTICMODEL FORECAST SPREAD PROMPTED A QUICK TRANSITION TO AN ENSEMBLEMEAN SOLUTION TUE/NEXT WED USING A 50-50 BLEND OF THE 06 UTC GEFSAND 00 UTC ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS. THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN FEATURES A LESS DEFINED SRN STREAMRUNNING UNDERNEATH AND INTERACTING WITH A DOMINANT AND AMPLIFIEDNRN STREAM FLOW WITH A MEAN RIDGE BUILDING ALOFT NEAR THE NWUS/WRN CANADIAN COASTS AND A COLD DOWNSTREAM MID-UPPER LEVELTROUGH DUG SOUTHWARD INTO THE US FROM EAST-CENTRAL CANADA...ALLOVERTOP AMEAN SERN US RIDGE ALOFT. FORECAST PREDICTABILLITY SEEMS TO HOLDAT NEAR AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS FOR THE NEXT WEEK IN THISOVERALL PATTERN WITH MOST UNCERTAINTY WITH UNRESOLVEDAMPLITUDE/TIMING ISSUES WITH EMBEDDED SMALLER SCALE IMPULSES ANDASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM REFLECTIONS AND SENSIBLE WEATHER FOCUS. WHILE EMBEDDED IMPULSES WILL LEAD TO SEVERAL SWATHS OF LIGHT-SIDEPCPN IN BOTH STREAMS ACROSS THE LOWER 48 IN LIMITEDMOISTURE...FORECAST SPREAD REMAINS MOST PROBLEMATIC WITH POTENTIALSRN AND NRN STREAM IMPULSE INTERACTION WITH A LOWER ATMOSPHERICCOLD DOME SUNK FAR SOUTHWARD DOWN THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND ERN US.THIS WOULD INCLUDE A THREAT FOR ENHANCED LEAD MOISTURE INFLOW/QPFAND OVERRUNNING WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL FOCUSING ALONG AND TO THENORTH OF THE TRACK OF ANY ORGANIZED FRONTAL/COASTAL WAVES.HEAVIEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL SEEMS ACROSS THE GULF COASTSTATES/SERN US. THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE OVERALL PCPN SHIELD ISA TOUGH CALL. THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH MAY FAVOR RECENT GFS/GEFSRUNS THAT HAVE BEEN MORE SOUTHWARD SUPPRESSED WITH QPF THAN RECENTECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS THAT MAY BE FAVORED BY UPSTREAM FLOWAMPLITUDE...LEADING TO THE 50-50 WPC BLEND. EITHER WOULD PLACE APOTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT BAND OF SLEET/ICE THEN SNOW OVERTOP ON THEMORE NRN EDGES OF THE OVERALL PRECIPITATION SHIELD...ALL PERHAPSMAINLY IN THIS PERIOD WITH A THREAT NORTHWARD FROM THE S-CENTRALPLAINS AND LOWER-MID MS/TN VALLEYS ENEWD THROUGH OH VALLEY AND THEAPPALACHIANS/MID-ATLANTIC. SCHICHTEL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 New weather video is up online. I will talk about the Friday, and weekend potential. Not to mention another potential storm next week. More details in the video. Thank you everyone for liking my page, videos and sharing them. Please invite your Friends on Facebook on the left hand side of the page under invite. Thanks again! -Chris www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 I guess I'm the only one that checks in here daily Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 I guess I'm the only one that checks in here daily Nope, I think we all check in regularly. When nothing is imminent or trackable we are pretty quiet. I tend to post in banter in the SE thread and even the regular pattern forum to pass the time though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 I'd use the word "Caution" what the models show in Mid Tn for mid week today.You got a banana high up above and convection being shown towards the Gulf states with an inverted trough pulling moisture up on the models today.I don't buy it and seen it to many times.Convection kills moisture from transporting here with gulf lows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 10, 2015 Author Share Posted January 10, 2015 I guess I'm the only one that checks in here daily Nah, I am in here quite often during the winter. Like tnwxnut said...just not much going on. 0z Euro has a few marginal events this evening. CPC ensembles today show promise. I still think we are on track for the end of January and February. Honestly, need a break from these single digits. Yikes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Nah, I am in here quite often during the winter. Like tnwxnut said...just not much going on. 0z Euro has a few marginal events this evening. CPC ensembles today show promise. I still think we are on track for the end of January and February. Honestly, need a break from these single digits. Yikes! Yeah I hear year. I feel like all weather boards need a break. Hopefully some people take a break before we get into a better pattern. Boards have been testy lately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Nice shift on the 0z,best look yet,is it right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Inverted trough on the 0Z GFS tonight looks better than past GFS runs,more over running.This is the last map from HPC today.I got .32" qpf's now compared to the last run of .10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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