tnweathernut Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 I am still seeing the chance for a light wintry event toward next weekend for parts of TN and the midsouth. It's now between 144ish to around 180. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 I am still seeing the chance for a light wintry event toward next weekend for parts of TN and the midsouth. It's now between 144ish to around 180. It looks even better on the 18z,still believe the models are having a tough time with the artic plunge,the 850's on this run are even colder than what i mentioned above almost 2c at the 850's,its now all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 It looks even better on the 18z,still believe the models are having a tough time with the artic plunge,the 850's on this run are even colder than what i mentioned above almost 2c at the 850's,its now all snow Yeah, I am trying not to take anything verbatim right now, but the look of a cold arctic high trying to hold on the playing field while a weak disturbance tries to create a light overrunning event (which could create a road nightmare) for parts of the upper midsouth is a good one. I just hope we finally have something to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Yeah, I am trying not to take anything verbatim right now, but the look of a cold arctic high trying to hold on the playing field while a weak disturbance tries to create a light overrunning event (which could create a road nightmare) for parts of the upper midsouth is a good one. I just hope we finally have something to follow. Not sure.the Euro backed down today along with the esm,even the GEFS looked warmer also.not sure we wont see a warm up around the 10th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 3, 2015 Author Share Posted January 3, 2015 The 18z GFS shows a nice pattern shaping up for the next couple of weeks. Is it right? I think so on the cold. Like tnweathernut said, tough to take anything verbatim too far out. It was a nice run. Hey, did the Euro show a light winter wx event on the heels of this cold weather? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 The 18z GFS shows a nice pattern shaping up for the next couple of weeks. Is it right? I think so on the cold. Like tnweathernut said, tough to take anything verbatim too far out. It was a nice run. Hey, did the Euro show a light winter wx event on the heels of this cold weather? Yup,its all verbatism aside right now but it is quite different looking the the 5h compared to past couple runs,its not a toast by all means but we live in the SE,its dont take much to change our weather to one thing to the extreme Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 I am sure there is a chance trying to show itself Jax, but like Carvers said, is it right? I am only talking in very general terms at this point and it makes sense for some kind of moisture feed (even if light) to return on the backside of an arctic high. Right now, I'd give it a 25-30% ish chance for something wintry in that time period for someone in the midsouth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 I am sure there is a chance trying to show itself Jax, but like Carvers said, is it right? I am only talking in very general terms at this point and it makes sense for some kind of moisture feed (even if light) to return on the backside of an arctic high. Right now, I'd give it a 25-30% ish chance for something wintry in that time period for someone in the midsouth. I know TWN,but what i'm looking at is a spike in the AO.This is why i think i the Euro is right in showing a warming trend in the 2nd week of Jan.,after the cold spell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Will be interesting to watch this unfold. Euro has really been struggling lately, though it's historically the best model. CFS AO forecast above provides the counter argument. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 image.jpg Will be interesting to watch this unfold. Euro has really been struggling lately, though it's historically the best model. CFS AO forecast above provides the counter argument. Thanks for posting that,that's quite interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Odd to say i didnt see that,the wind chill looks more impressive in Mid Tn other than west or east Edit:but i'm looking at tri also,this doesnt really reflect the higher elevations like you mentioned I find 850mb temps are usually what you find at 5500 feet and above if not slightly colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machetemoonlight Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 no chance for even snow showers with this coming arctic front here in E. Tennessee? Man, those are the worst, bone dry arctic fronts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 I find 850mb temps are usually what you find at 5500 feet and above if not slightly colder. Orographic areas it shouldnt matter,your area produce clouds as you move upwards This is where i got into a debate about the snow dome recently for our area.We have the west,north,and eastern rims and people forget about the southern rims in Columbia southward,this is why us in Williamson County get hosed this is why we want to see systems going through Mid Al into N/Ga,we get downslope from the southern rim and we get decent snows,otherwise we get left out Just saying anyways,not that it has anything of the point Edit:this is a reason why southern middle Tn and N/Al cashed in.in reason years and left us out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Orographic areas it shouldnt matter,your area produce clouds as you move upwards This is where i got into a debate about the snow dome recently for our area.We have the west,north,and eastern rims and people forget about the southern rims in Columbia southward,this is why us in Williamson County get hosed this is why we want to see systems going through Mid Al into N/Ga,we get downslope from the southern rim and we get decent snows,otherwise we get left out Just saying anyways,not that it has anything of the point Edit:this is a reason why southern middle Tn and N/Al cashed in.in reason years and left us out I find it doesn't matter about cloud cover at all up there if the 850mb temps support it. Readings out of Mt Leconte almost always match the 850mb temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 I find it doesn't matter about cloud cover at all up there if the 850mb temps support it. Readings out of Mt Leconte almost always match the 850mb temps. I'm not doubting you if you read my post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machetemoonlight Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 ^good discussion.. locally here in the Chattanooga valley areas, I've noticed for years how the Cumberland plateau sometimes creates and also screws us out of snow shower activity with arctic fronts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 I find it doesn't matter about cloud cover at all up there if the 850mb temps support it. Readings out of Mt Leconte almost always match the 850mb temps. Orographics as you rise produce clouds,it doesnt matter what the 850 temp is,just saying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Orographics as you rise produce clouds,it doesnt matter what the 850 temp is,just saying My bad. Sorry for any mix up. I'm debating if I want to go up during this arctic blast but the ice could be really bad in spots. Good thing I have crampons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 ^good discussion.. locally here in the Chattanooga valley areas, I've noticed for years how the Cumberland plateau sometimes creates and also screws us out of snow shower activity with arctic fronts. You guys get screwed as much as us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machetemoonlight Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 You guys get screwed as much as us ha, yeah.. didn't want to say that.. at least recently we've gotten some good snow, but still think the Nashville area is in a long drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 My bad. Sorry for any mix up. I'm debating if I want to go up during this arctic blast but the ice could be really bad in spots. Good thing I have crampons. No clue,but untl cold air gets locked in it could go either way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 ha, yeah.. didn't want to say that.. at least recently we've gotten some good snow, but still think the Nashville area is in a long drought. hopefully for a change we dont get hosed..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 4, 2015 Author Share Posted January 4, 2015 0z GFS caves to the Euro past day 7. No repetetive cold. Cold slides off to the east, and the following cold shots are shunted to the north. The 6z is mildy better. But looks like mid-January is warm based on thr 0z suite. Not surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 0z GFS caves to the Euro past day 7. No repetetive cold. Cold slides off to the east, and the following cold shots are shunted to the north. The 6z is mildy better. But looks like mid-January is warm based on thr 0z suite. Not surprising. GEFS has been hinting at this as well but it got somewhat cooler the last run.GFS 6z has a quick hitter Wed but it looks all alone no other model shows it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 *IMHO* nice potential with the pattern for this are as well. Maybe the best potential. Hot off the presses folks! LOL All new weather video is up. I really think y'all will like it. There is a BUNCH of weather talk, duh...but we talk about the Arctic airmass coming down and how I feel like the models will likely be a little to warm with it, Especially the EURO. Also, how I think the models will ***MORE THAN LIKELY** be kicking out the airmass toward the weekend. PLUS we talk about the *POTENTIAL* weekend fun.. again, potential and TRENDS not a forecast. The players are on the field, but do we kick a field goal, fumble or hit the end zone?? Enjoy and thank y'all for liking and sharing the videos and page. Really means a lot to me. -Chris https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSIONNWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD152 AM EST MON JAN 05 2015 VALID 12Z THU JAN 08 2015 - 12Z MON JAN 12 2015 ...OVERVIEW...EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE---A SERIES OF COLD CANADIAN HIGHPRESSURE SYSTEMS SPREAD ACROSS THE LOWER 48...WITH BELOW NORMALTEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE BETTER PART OF THIS MEDIUM RANGEPERIOD. WEST OF THE DIVIDE---A PACIFIC AIRMASS IS INTRODUCED---AND ITSINFLUENCES DE-AMPLIFYING THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BY NEXT WEEK ACROSSSOUTHWEST CANADA AND THE WEST COAST. PART OF THE DE-AMPLIFICATIONPROCESS---AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET EMERGESIN NORTHERN MEXICO---ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...SOUTHEAST ANDSOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES. ...UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT...THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS TO GRADUALLY TRANSITION THEFLOW PATTERN ALOFT IN THE WEST AND ACCURATELY DEPICT THE TIMING OFPACIFIC ENERGY---THAT WILL 'UNDERCUT' THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS FROMTHE SOUTHERN ALASKA PANHANDLE SOUTHWARD TO THE OREGONCASCADES---AND THEN CARRY THE ENERGY/MOISTURE DOWNSTREAM ACROSSTHE PLAINS. AND DOWNSTREAM...IS DEFINITELY WHERE A MODIFIED-ARCTICAIRMASS WILL BE PLACE---DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THENATION. FROM A SITUATIONAL AWARENESS STANDPOINT---THE PATTERN SETUP IN THEWEST AND THE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE---EAST OF THE DIVIDE---AHEAD OFTHE INTRODUCTION OF THE PACIFIC FLOW---WILL LIKELY BECOME A WINTRYONE. THE INTRODUCTION OF A SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE UPPER-LEVELJET---FAVORS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST...WITH ANOVER-RUNNING GULF MOISTURE STREAM BEING THE ONE DETAIL THAT WILLCHANGE WITH TIME. THE LEE SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES WILL BE ANOTHER REGIONALCHALLENGE---AN AREA WHERE THE PACIFIC AIRMASS GRADUALLYOVERRUNS...AND PERIODICALLY DISPLACES THE ARCTIC AIRMASS.TEMPERATURES AND LOCAL UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION WILL BE THE PRIMARYCONCERNS FROM CENTRAL MONTANA TO SOUTHWEST TEXAS. ...MODEL PREFERENCES...NO PERFECT PROG OUT THERE---BUT THERE IS A GROWING CONFIDENCE INTHE DIRECTION OF THE FORECAST...GIVEN THE CURRENT ORIENTATION OFTHE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA---AND CURRENTCONDITIONS IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ALASKA PANHANDLE. THEFORECAST HAS LEANED---AND CONTINUES TO LEAN ON THE ECENS/ECMWFSOLUTION. ANTICIPATE A VERY SLOW EROSION OF THE ARCTICAIRMASS---AND NOT TO OCCUR MUCH AT ALL EAST OF THEMISSISSIPPI/LOWER MISSOURI AND NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVERS DURINGTHIS MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. ...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...LAKE-EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOWFALL AND VERY COLD CONDITIONS WILL BE THEPREVAILING WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ANDNORTHEAST. EAST OF 100W LONGITUDE---TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ANDEXPECT TWO COLD CANADIAN SURFACE HIGHS TO SETTLE IN ALONG THELOWER OHIO VALLEY AND PIEDMONT THIS MEDIUM RANGEPERIOD---PRODUCING PERIODS OF SUB-FREEZING CONDITIONS FOR THEENTIRE GULF COAST...NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS---AND THEPOTENTIAL FOR WINTER-LIKE PRECIPITATION---NEXT WEEKEND IN THESEAREAS---AND POINTS NORTHEASTWARD---INCLUDING THE TENNESSEE VALLEYAND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. VOJTESAK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 152 AM EST MON JAN 05 2015 VALID 12Z THU JAN 08 2015 - 12Z MON JAN 12 2015 ...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS... EAST OF 100W LONGITUDE---TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AND EXPECT TWO COLD CANADIAN SURFACE HIGHS TO SETTLE IN ALONG THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND PIEDMONT THIS MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD---PRODUCING PERIODS OF SUB-FREEZING CONDITIONS FOR THE ENTIRE GULF COAST...NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS---AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTER-LIKE PRECIPITATION---NEXT WEEKEND IN THESE AREAS---AND POINTS NORTHEASTWARD---INCLUDING THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. VOJTESAK Yep, I still see it and have been on this period for several days now. The "look" is a good one. We are not seeing wintry solutions from the models yet, but the setup is a good one for something icy to happen in the mid-south. JMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 The sad thing is, in a winter where we have had a legitimate threat or two, this upcoming weekend/early following week period would be looked at as "meh" and a strung out mess at 500. This winter however, there are a BUNCH of people jumping on the possibility of at least something to track. Will be interesting to see if the models can consolidate around a specific shortwave or if their strung out mess never really provides the spark needed for overrunning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 From Wes in the midatlantic forum Anyone want to guess which way this one goes? lol "The 06Z GEFS ensembles have two clusters that are equally divided with one showing above normal temps for us in the 11-15 day period while the other has below normal for the same time period. Both the Euro ens clusters covering the same time period have us above normal for what that is worth." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Euro is a nice little hit of snow (per the clown maps) for northeastern Arkansas (5-6 inches), northwestern TN 2-4.5 inch amounts, and 1-3 inch amounts for northern central TN. The main band of 2-4 inch snows is aimed from northeastern AR into most of KY.All from a very weak Miller A that forms around southern LA, before weakening as it moves east to east northeast off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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