jaxjagman Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 If you look at the max 2 meter temps on the Euro ensembles for the time period just after that, hour 198 (or 1PM) it's showing around 30-33. It's a pretty impressive map, considering it's the ensemble. I won't be surprised if we have a day where the highs are in the low to mid 20's, with lows approaching single digits from this. Time will tell. Also, just glancing at the rest of the ensembles through 360, 500 looks warmish, but the surface stays fairly cool with highs in the low to mid 40's and lows in the upper 20's to 30's. All that said, it's not a snow pattern, but maybe we can sneak in a small event with good timing in the next week to 10 days. After that is probably a coin flip. Even the control looks much warmer,for you guys it looks like the teens for us in the 20's,i'm still not sold by the teles being so cold the Euro is showing,we are losing the epo if its right,where is this extreme cold coming from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Last Gfs run the pv looks almost split top to bottom,looking at 50mb,it will be interesting to watch as we continue to see better warming each run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Canadian even colder? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Just looked at the weeklies,the last week of Jan are freaking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 LOL..if the weeklies are right we will be looking at some sub 0 temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 0z GFS is trending colder this run. Down to 6 at KTRI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 0z GFS is trending colder this run. Down to 6 at KTRI Wave 2 is doing a number on the PV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Institute of Meteorology Physics of the Middle Atmosphere ECMWF 192 h forecasts January 01 2015 12 UTC.png Wave 2 is doing a number on the PV Jax I really like the way the long range is looking on the GFS this evening. Looking much colder. January may not be too bad after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Jax I really like the way the long range is looking on the GFS this evening. Looking much colder. January may not be too bad after all. I couldnt imagine how cold it could get with a -NAO what the models keep showing,though we'd more than likely be bone dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 2, 2015 Author Share Posted January 2, 2015 0z GFS almost features a reloading cold pattern in the East. Will need some support from the Euro before I buy into that. Far more interesting than what it has been showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 0z GFS almost features a reloading cold pattern in the East. Will need some support from the Euro before I buy into that. Far more interesting than what it has been showing. i agree,the esm's look warm to me long range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 It's becoming more clear that a NASTY cold shot is coming for the mid-south next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 It's becoming more clear that a NASTY cold shot is coming for the mid-south next week. Yup...last night's Euro reaffirmed in a stronger fashion the 12z run....The 6z GFS is almost on top of it with single digits for almost all of TN....Followed by rain the following weekend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Yup...last night's Euro reaffirmed in a stronger fashion the 12z run....The 6z GFS is almost on top of it with single digits for almost all of TN....Followed by rain the following weekend... Certainly looks believable without any blocking in place. The thing that gives me optimism is there are multiple large highs showing and the timing of EVERY model past day 6/7 with regards to precip isn't going to be very good................meaning ................we might be able to work our way into an event of some kind with good timing.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 2, 2015 Author Share Posted January 2, 2015 The CPC ensembles(AO, NAO, and PNA) are all heading in favorable directions around(or just after) mid-January. Definitely some shifting going on w/ the models IMO. Mr. Bob, the warm-up following the cold shot next week seems to be a 7-10 day warm-up and then maybe things get interesting after the 20th. What say you? Tnweathernut, those big highs are definitely promising. I don't like the trend for them to slide through the NE, but that can change just as it has for next week. The past few runs of the GFS have been hinting at +PNA. That is backed-up by the CPC ensembles which show a strong PNA by mid-month. The NAO, while not negative on the CPC site, takes a dive towards neutral around mid-month...and then the graph ends. The AO looks like it is about to tank on the CPC site. A few members go deeply negative. Looks like the Nino is finally taking control as it normally does this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 After looking at the models, I am convinced we see some type of winter event between hours 162-228. Might be a snow/ice to ice/rain type of deal, but there is a good possibility that something might be attacking the departing cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 After looking at the models, I am convinced we see some type of winter event between hours 162-228. Might be a snow/ice to ice/rain type of deal, but there is a good possibility that something might be attacking the departing cold. Todays tele's is showing signs at least the NAO headed towards = and still signs of the AO going -,the MJO looks to be missing data ? Edit;yesterdays,weak 6-7?Mojo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 After looking at the models, I am convinced we see some type of winter event between hours 162-228. Might be a snow/ice to ice/rain type of deal, but there is a good possibility that something might be attacking the departing cold. Close TWN, just comparing BNA at the 850's it's 2.6C colder than the 12z yesterday,how fast are the models pulling the cold air out also should be in question,we know sometimes they are to quick doing this.Also looks like the mid Jan the another reinforcing shot of cold air is fixing to possibly happen,even colder than what we are expecting in a couple days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 12z GFS has KTRI down to 4 on Thursday morning and only up to a high of 18 next Thursday. Shades of last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 12z GFS has KTRI down to 4 on Thursday morning and only up to a high of 18 next Thursday. Shades of last year. We will get cold by the looks,it shows 4 for us also,around the 15th for BNA -2,though that's far out and will change many more times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 3, 2015 Author Share Posted January 3, 2015 12z GFS is showing a very cold pattern. Repetitive cold shots roll throught plains SE. Almost the entire run. Just had the wood stove installed. Ready to try it out. Will post pics in another thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 The models again trended slightly colder.I'm using BNA as an example,2m's Gem -2 GFS 4 Euro 3 If you want to see text of your area let me know and which model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Sure Jax, what about KTRI and KTYS? I would imagine there isn't a big spread ...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Hot off the presses!! LOL All new weather video is up online. Warning, its a longer video today, but there is a TON to talk about and a TON of potential with the pattern. I still feel that the models will trend maybe a little colder with the arctic airmass, but we shall see. This will be the REAL deal cold for sure. Next weekend looks **Potentially** interesting...Not sure anything will happen, *more than likely won't*, but IMHO its very possible. Thanks for watching! https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Just checked out the wind chill graph after looking at the surface winds it should hit something close to -5 to -10 Thursday for a vast part of the Valley evening into morning if anyone cares Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Looks like -10F to -15F is possible on the highest peaks. And with no real snow over that's impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Looks like -10F to -15F is possible on the highest peaks. And with no real snow over that's impressive. Odd to say i didnt see that,the wind chill looks more impressive in Mid Tn other than west or east Edit:but i'm looking at tri also,this doesnt really reflect the higher elevations like you mentioned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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