jaxjagman Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 least we have a fantasy storm to follow..1.2" of ice for you guys in Tri 1.23 tys .80 bna .64 mem fantasy only,just posting it because nothing much to post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 31, 2014 Author Share Posted December 31, 2014 12z GFS is still pretty meh...I still think we have to wait ~ 3 weeks. Might be less if there is a favorable reaction to the SSW. December 14' will finish well above normal. CFS2, unfortunately, nailed December for our area. It predicts a less than positive picture for January. Still, I think the transition happens later this month. Climo and the models(w/ cold finally returning to Canada) hint at the beginning of a somewhat brief winter pattern then, say for roughly three weeks. We could get an elusive winter event before then with cold just to our north and multiple southern stream impulses, though cold and moisture appear to be out of sync. Ice, as Jax mentions, will be the main threat wherever the boundary sets up shop. The MJO is still, and continues to be predicted to be...unfavorable. The one plus is cold in Canada is there now to be tapped. Up to this point, scientific data and modeling have been strong in saying the cold is blunted or absent. Almost all models hint at colder air, deeper troughs. My one concern remains, the teleconnections are not good. Interestingly, the buffleheads(a duck that lives to our north) have returned to the Eastman sluice - eight weeks late I believe. To me at least...this implies their home waterways up north have just frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 12z GFS is still pretty meh...I still think we have to wait ~ 3 weeks. Might be less if there is a favorable reaction to the SSW. December 14' will finish well above normal. CFS2, unfortunately, nailed December for our area. It predicts a less than positive picture for January. Still, I think the transition happens later this month. Climo and the models(w/ cold finally returning to Canada) hint at the beginning of a somewhat brief winter pattern then, say for roughly three weeks. We could get an elusive winter event before then with cold just to our north and multiple southern stream impulses, though cold and moisture appear to be out of sync. Ice, as Jax mentions, will be the main threat wherever the boundary sets up shop. The MJO is still, and continues to be predicted to be...unfavorable. The one plus is cold in Canada is there now to be tapped. Up to this point, scientific data and modeling have been strong in saying the cold is blunted or absent. Almost all models hint at colder air, deeper troughs. My one concern remains, the teleconnections are not good. Interestingly, the buffleheads(a duck that lives to our north) have returned to the Eastman sluice - eight weeks late I believe. To me at least...this implies their home waterways up north have just frozen. At the surface it is pretty meh, except for showing a train of large high pressures descending into NA and pushing southeast. That look is becoming more consistent and the 2m temps will likely outdo current modeling (west of the apps, especially west of the plateau). Will be interesting to see if we can manage to work ourselves into good timing with moisture if that look is correct. That said, I HATE ice, but if we could work into a sleet event, that would be pretty cool. After the last high (lose the effects of the -EPO) I think the deck reshuffles again and we have a fairly mild 10 day period (hope it's not longer) later in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 31, 2014 Author Share Posted December 31, 2014 At the surface it is pretty meh, except for showing a train of large high pressures descending into NA and pushing southeast. That look is becoming more consistent and the 2m temps will likely outdo current modeling (west of the apps, especially west of the plateau). Will be interesting to see if we can manage to work ourselves into good timing with moisture if that look is correct. That said, I HATE ice, but if we could work into a sleet event, that would be pretty cool. After the last high (lose the effects of the -EPO) I think the deck reshuffles again and we have a fairly mild 10 day period (hope it's not longer) later in January. Good points. And I agree. For us to get ice we need a big high just to our west which won't budge, and that is exactly what is being modeled...not the storm but the pattern. I do like seeing those highs come down. Maybe when we lose the -EPO the NAO will turn negative(can it do that if the EPO is not?). I just think at some point El Nino is going to overwhelm this pattern and the snow will fall. Seems like it is always late January into late February when that happens. Basically, I am riding climo. Kind of a cheaters way to forecast, but it has worked for me so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Good points. And I agree. For us to get ice we need a big high just to our west which won't budge, and that is exactly what is being modeled...not the storm but the pattern. I do like seeing those highs come down. Maybe when we lose the -EPO the NAO will turn negative(can it do that if the EPO is not?). I just think at some point El Nino is going to overwhelm this pattern and the snow will fall. Seems like it is always late January into late February when that happens. Basically, I am riding climo. Kind of a cheaters way to forecast, but it has worked for me so far. It is not a cheaters way! Just call it wisdom... I know some of the other regions can generate tons of posts on how much the pattern sucks, but I do understand why it is currently quiet in here. And I am sure when we finally get a better pattern, that there will be plenty of activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 It is not a cheaters way! Just call it wisdom... I know some of the other regions can generate tons of posts on how much the pattern sucks, but I do understand why it is currently quiet in here. And I am sure when we finally get a better pattern, that there will be plenty of activity. I agree. It's been a good call from both of you guys this year. It's easy to get sucked into the popular opinion and you guys had reasons to NOT do that. Kudos. I also agree that when there is a threat, there will be a lot of activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 31, 2014 Author Share Posted December 31, 2014 It is not a cheaters way! Just call it wisdom... I know some of the other regions can generate tons of posts on how much the pattern sucks, but I do understand why it is currently quiet in here. And I am sure when we finally get a better pattern, that there will be plenty of activity. Ha! Good point. Having lived through the 90s which had multiple Ninos, seemed like the winters generally went warm with one or two really big winter wx events. I learned a lot from living in Knoxville then. I am beginning to think weak Ninas may be the ticket here or even la Nadas. Anyway, normal Nino climo (as everyone knows) basically goes with warm Decembers, near normal Januarys(maybe slightly above in some cases), and then cold Februarys. That is the pattern I am riding. Hope Feb holds serve for past nino winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 31, 2014 Author Share Posted December 31, 2014 How quick is that precip getting here on 12z Euro during next 48 hrs? Maybe starts as sleet or ice briefly? Looks like some moisture precip on the PSU maps sneaks ahead of the system. May depend on time of day. I also don't have a good breakdown of the Euros levels. How does it look for that time frame? Overall run, looks like a +PNA setup with no blocking in the Atlantic. Plenty of cold in Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrgolf Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Just a matter of time before the -epo breaks down and we go warm again because the other teleconnections aren't favorable. IMO, I believe our chances at snow/ice are virtually 0 in type of setup we have now and moving forward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 31, 2014 Author Share Posted December 31, 2014 Just a matter of time before the -epo breaks down and we go warm again because the other teleconnections aren't favorable. IMO, I believe our chances at snow/ice are virtually 0 in type of setup we have now and moving forward On CPC ensembles, the AO is set to tank mid-month. Soars upward and then crashes if one extrapolates the graph. The PNA looks positive on the models, and it hovers at neutral on the CPC. The NAO is set to go positive. Just an educated guess, but I bet we get a +PNA and very -AO by say Jan 20th give or take a few days. Normally, that would be a cold, northwest flow...but I bet the juiced southern stream undercuts that western ridge with some split-flow overrunning. Only a guess, but I will take a tanked AO in a Nino....but no -AO and things could get ugly. But I bet Nino climo will take over late month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 31, 2014 Author Share Posted December 31, 2014 And yes...looks like a 7-10 day warm-up after the current seasonal temps run its course. Then, I think we better buckle-up. Get some sleep for the next couple of weekends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 PV looks like it's taking a even better hit on the 18z ,warmer towards Siberia Edit:through 102 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Maybe not,looks colder this run so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Much better warming,pv is split up to 20 mb by h150 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 162 its split up to 30mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Both the 18z runs are cold and actually in the 120 to 180hrs timeframe with 10s and 20s type cold for highs and lows. Not frigid but cold enough for business if a storm can sneak in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Both the 18z runs are cold and actually in the 120 to 180hrs timeframe with 10s and 20s type cold for highs and lows. Not frigid but cold enough for business if a storm can sneak in. yup.much colder run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Extreme cold isn't that far away with -10s in NW Illinois. Our good cold air masses come when Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa and Illinois are the cold centers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 It will be interesting to keep an eye on a severe threat like Joe Renken said around the 12th,the GEFS continues to get warmer,we will see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 31, 2014 Author Share Posted December 31, 2014 Both the 18z runs are cold and actually in the 120 to 180hrs timeframe with 10s and 20s type cold for highs and lows. Not frigid but cold enough for business if a storm can sneak in. Not that it won't change, but that was a nice run in a sense it seemed that the cold seemed to reload. It was more cold w/ short periods of warmth than warmth w/ short periods of cold. Like I have been saying, el Nino is a big signal. It has the potential to trump all other cards. Many times during a Nino, the SE is colder than the NE or northern plains...that looks has not happened...yet. Anyway, a nice run, but sure to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 31, 2014 Author Share Posted December 31, 2014 pv2.png814analog.prcp.gif 715×715 .png It will be interesting to keep an eye on a severe threat like Joe Renken said around the 12th,the GEFS continues to get warmer,we will see The SE ridge is present in their thinking, though I think it is transient in nature this time (though many Nino winters feature a SE ridge and I am sure this will be present in future winter forecasts w/ Ninos present) . That cold should make its way south and southeast. So, it is more like a snapshot. Does look like a nice 7-10 day warm-up. It is the time frame just after this that I am very interested in. I am really, really going to be interested in the AO and PNA during the coming days at CPC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 31, 2014 Author Share Posted December 31, 2014 MRX mentioning a light icing/mix event for Thursday night and Friday morning....(in a slow pattern, can always get a little mileage out of marginal events) .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...RAINY WEEKENDSTILL ON TAP AS A PROLONGED SW TAP OUT OF THE GULF WILL KEEPMOISTURE FLOW OVER AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. PEAK PRECIP PERIODSLOOK TO BE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT IN WHICH THE HEAVIEST RAINWILL FALL. ROUGHLY ONE TO ONE-AND-A-HALF INCHES OF RAIN WILL FALLTHROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT.AT THE ONSET THOUGH...LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING...THERE MAYBE SOME TIME WHEN FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET WILL TEMPORARILYOCCUR...BUT WE WILL FIND OURSELVES IN A WARMING ENVIRONMENT OVERALLBEGINNING ON FRIDAY...THUS ACCUMULATIONS OF ANY ICE SHOULD BE LIGHTAND TEMPORARY.A WEAK DISTURBANCE MID WEEK WILL BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO THENORTHERN VALLEY AND MOUNTAINS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL DOMINATE THELATTER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED...MON-WED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 31, 2014 Author Share Posted December 31, 2014 Interesting. Light event. But for folks along the northern border of TN, might be some issues late Thursday night into Friday morning. More like a commuting nuisance.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 31, 2014 Author Share Posted December 31, 2014 Slight risk mentioned out of Nashville... THAT HOWEVER WILL CHANGE AS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNER`SREGION BECOMES THE SOURCE FOR A WARM/WET WEEKEND. ENERGY WILL EJECTEASTWARD FROM THIS LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOMORROW. THISSHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHTPRECIP LATE TOMORROW NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...THE DEEPEST MOISTUREHOVERS ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN AND SOUTHWARD. BUT LIGHT PRECIPCOULD MAKE ITS WAY AS FAR NORTH AS I-40...WITH AN EVEN LESSER CHANCENORTH OF THAT. GIVEN HOW DRY THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE IS ALONG WITHFORECAST LOWS RIGHT AROUND FREEZING TOMORROW NIGHT...ANY PRECIP THATDROPS INTO THIS DRY LAYER MAY COOL THE AIR ENOUGH THAT THE LIGHTESTONSET OF FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET COULD BE POSSIBLE NEAREST THE KYBORDER AROUND MIDNIGHT TO DAWN FRIDAY MORNING. NOT IMPRESSED WITHTHE QPF AT ALL...AND BOTH THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND NAM KEEP MOST OFTHE QPF ALONG I-40 AND SOUTHWARD WHERE THE ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS WILLBE. THUS THINK WE MAY SEE A SPIT OF FZ RAIN OR A TINY ICE PELLETOR TWO AT ONSET NEAR THE TN/KY BORDER BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6AMFRIDAY MORNING AT BEST. OTHERWISE...A LIGHT COLD RAIN WILL PUSH INTOMIDDLE TN THURSDAY NIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 The SE ridge is present in their thinking, though I think it is transient in nature this time (though many Nino winters feature a SE ridge and I am sure this will be present in future winter forecasts w/ Ninos present) . That cold should make its way south and southeast. So, it is more like a snapshot. Does look like a nice 7-10 day warm-up. It is the time frame just after this that I am very interested in. I am really, really going to be interested in the AO and PNA during the coming days at CPC. I know,but i'm looking at the synoptics to speak The AO ia fixing to take a wild ride The control 12z is showing the 850's going into Canada with the 850's 10cin the Valley,though right now the instability lags behind but still though when you see the indices go up and down something is up Edit:We'll see what happens anyways might have went to extreme with the indices and with a SSW it would be a moot point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Interesting. Light event. But for folks along the northern border of TN, might be some issues late Thursday night into Friday morning. More like a commuting nuisance.... NewYears2015ice.JPG I saw the GFS got colder that run,has .11"frozen now.be interseting what the 0z shows Edit:shouldnt be a issue other than travel,hope it's just IP though if it's right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Not that it won't change, but that was a nice run in a sense it seemed that the cold seemed to reload. It was more cold w/ short periods of warmth than warmth w/ short periods of cold. Like I have been saying, el Nino is a big signal. It has the potential to trump all other cards. Many times during a Nino, the SE is colder than the NE or northern plains...that looks has not happened...yet. Anyway, a nice run, but sure to change. Interesting,by the looks we are headed towards a more LaNina pattern towards the end of the month Edit:not sure what to think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 1, 2015 Author Share Posted January 1, 2015 CPC has us at a high probability we go Nino during winter 2015 and persist through spring. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf Check out pages 25 and 33. The ENSO animations do show a Nino more on the western edge of things. Past that, I am no better than what I am reading in that report. Edit: Looks like a basin wide event, maybe a little more weighted to the west. Some say the actual downstream results in NA look more Nina-ish. Here at KTRI, definitely behaving like a basin wide, Nino event. IMBY though...so, I won't speak for everyone else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 CPC has us at a high probability we go Nino during winter 2015 and persist through spring. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf Check out pages 25 and 33. The ENSO animations do show a Nino more on the western edge of things. Past that, I am no better than what I am reading in that report. Edit: Looks like a basin wide event, maybe a little more weighted to the west. Some say the actual downstream results in NA look more Nina-ish. Here at KTRI, definitely behaving like a basin wide event. IMBY though...so, I won't speak for everyone else. tidbits goes off daily i think though ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 1, 2015 Author Share Posted January 1, 2015 tidbits goes off daily i think though ? Might be...that report from CPC is just two days old. I also think they look at upwelling and temps just below the surface. Sometimes cool water will hit the surface and throw-off the numbers and then the warm water works its way back up after lurking just underneath. Best I can gather, that is why they look at the whole water column. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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