Winter Pattern Discussion 2014-2015 (December/January)

[jaxjagman]

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/548835539571712000

[jaxjagman]

 

Thats a cold ass look to me,i just hope for our area other than the eastern valley we dont see an extreme -nao or we are screwed,time will tell,but it  looks cold right now into Jan

[John1122]

That look may give us some good hope for the future. I just hope the Euro can hold onto it and we can reel it in rather than it being eternally 10 days away.

[jaxjagman]

Looking at my maps we would more than likely see some single digits past the end of the run on tonights Euro,it looks so cold for our area we'd have to hope for clippers,the east valley is a different story

[jaxjagman]

That look may give us some good hope for the future. I just hope the Euro can hold onto it and we can reel it in rather than it being eternally 10 days away.

yeah its a cold look for sure

[John1122]

It's a very similar look to the para from earlier. The 00z GFS was similar with a parade of 1045+ highs rolling down from Canada into the upper midwest. These have a more eastern look now too, they don't slide down towards the SW.

[jaxjagman]

It's a very similar look to the para from earlier. The 00z GFS was similar with a parade of 1045+ highs rolling down from Canada into the upper midwest. These have a more eastern look now too, they don't slide down towards the SW. the 5h

If the euro is right we should keep an eye on the system before hand,looks ragged right now but this could change

 

Edit:if this digs S on 5h,game on

[jaxjagman]

Thats still some crazy temps looking heading our way,during the midday temps already lowering into the teens in the NW valley during the 1-7 time frame

[valkhorn]

Thats still some crazy temps looking heading our way,during the midday temps already lowering into the teens in the NW valley during the 1-7 time frame

 

It's promising, but until I see some kind of consensus on the models I won't buy into it.

[John1122]

Trend continues on the 12z suite of models as far as the GFS and para go. -15 to -20+ below normal temps, resulting in lows near 0 for a good portion of the valley. Also a southern slider in the time frame that takes snow way down south of us. Not worried yet about the small precip field with it, just hope the cold look plus a storm will stay on the board.

[deltadog03]

Thanks everyone!  New video is up, I will have a better look at the whole weather picture tomorrow, but from what I could see and tell today, the pattern does look like its changing and for the better overall.  I do really think that the I-40 corridor still has the best chance to see anything wintry first.  Could we see something next weekend?  The euro looks more powerful with that low.  My guess its too strong, but we shall see.  Thanks for watching.  Lets keep the push on to get to 700 likes on FB.  Thanks everyone for being patient with me this weekend.  -Chris 

 

https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons

[Mr Bob]

The 12z Euro is a glancing blow...backed up on the EPS by a warmer pattern into Mid Jan. Maybe the GFS has something but often at this range is too cold. Temps never get below 20 on the Euro and given the strong southern branch whic we did not have last year, seems more reasonable to me. Perhaps it will change but I still think the best chances for us come in late January to mid Feb.

[metwannabe]

The 12z Euro is a glancing blow...backed up on the EPS by a warmer pattern into Mid Jan. Maybe the GFS has something but often at this range is too cold. Temps never get below 20 on the Euro and given the strong southern branch whic we did not have last year, seems more reasonable to me. Perhaps it will change but I still think the best chances for us come in late January to mid Feb.

I thought the euro ensembles look much better in the day 5-10 range. Much colder than previous runs big ridge out west

[Mr Bob]

I thought the euro ensembles look much better in the day 5-10 range. Much colder than previous runs big ridge out west

Okay, but that is not mid Jan...and there is quite a difference in the south between Euro cold and GFS cold.

[metwannabe]

Okay, but that is not mid Jan...and there is quite a difference in the south between Euro cold and GFS cold.

I agree there is a difference, I don't agree on having to wait till mid January. But that's what makes boards so great. The GFS is likely too cold. However the EURO has been very persistent on splitting the PV by day 6 . The GFS has done that as well from run to run. The split is short lived if correct but the question is what happens if it does split? Both models show a big western ridge . Way too many questions to lean one way or the other for me. And I actually believe we break down mid month for a little bit and get warmer . Anyway just my two cents ..... Which isn't worth a lot

[jaxjagman]

Hello everyone,

 

This is Joe Renken of KOPN Weather bringing you the weekly long range discussion for the KOPN listening area.

The typhoon rule shows a massive upper level low developing over the Sea of Ohktosk until the 24th of December from the parent system on the 19th.  During this time period, multiple systems will rotate around it on the 21st until a new system dives from the Northwest on the 24th.  So, look for Central Missouri to have the main storm on the day after Christmas with snow chances on December 28th and New Year’s Eve.

The Bering Sea has ridging starting the period until the 23rd of December, when a strong storm hits.  This storm has me worried about a severe weather outbreak for the Deep South and Tennessee Valley while we get snow on January 12th.  On the 26th and 27th of December we have another strong storm moving into the Southwestern Bering Sea and once it moves into the Central areas, it will stay until the new year.  That translates to a storm on January 15th and cold northwest flow follows afterwards.

Don’t forget to get the word out about our long range forecasting on www.weather.kopn.org to your friends and family as it’s being noticed on the blogsphere.

[Stovepipe]

Hello everyone,

 

This is Joe Renken of KOPN Weather bringing you the weekly long range discussion for the KOPN listening area.

The typhoon rule shows a massive upper level low developing over the Sea of Ohktosk until the 24th of December from the parent system on the 19th.  During this time period, multiple systems will rotate around it on the 21st until a new system dives from the Northwest on the 24th.  So, look for Central Missouri to have the main storm on the day after Christmas with snow chances on December 28th and New Year’s Eve.

The Bering Sea has ridging starting the period until the 23rd of December, when a strong storm hits.  This storm has me worried about a severe weather outbreak for the Deep South and Tennessee Valley while we get snow on January 12th.  On the 26th and 27th of December we have another strong storm moving into the Southwestern Bering Sea and once it moves into the Central areas, it will stay until the new year.  That translates to a storm on January 15th and cold northwest flow follows afterwards.

Don’t forget to get the word out about our long range forecasting on www.weather.kopn.org to your friends and family as it’s being noticed on the blogsphere.

 

Just a readability suggestion, but if you're quoting someone could you please put the text in a quote tag?  It was fairly obvious this time since the person began by saying "this is so and so", but other times you do this it's more confusing.  Thanks!

[tnweathernut]

The high amplitude MJO signal (through 4,5,6) from the last several days appears to be diminishing toward a much lower amplitude signal.  It will be interesting to watch this in the coming days.

[Carvers Gap]

12z Euro w/ no wintry threats. However, it does move to a cold NE from a cold west. Makes my head spin. So, here is what I think is causing the problem.

1. The Euro erroneously tries to hold energy for eternity in the southwest. Seems like when energy goes there, it is never allowed per the model to kick-out. For example, the cold is currently holding in the southwest at the moment..but it won't stay, not w/ this Nino-ish pattern. Because of this glitch in the model, it is throwing out a different solution every run.

2. Low level cold air causes the Euro lots of problems. My guess is that the cold oozing southward out of Canada is just blowing a fuse in the model. There are some -30 numbers in the NWT. The further south that air goes, the worse the model will behave. IF, IF, IF...one was looking for a glimmer of hope(or false hope) the Euro had a very tough time during January of last year and did not recognize the cold until almost after it arrived. Now, to keep it real, many signals pointed to January 14' being cold and it seemed then that the Euro was going to be wrong. Those signals are not present at the moment. In fact, they point towards a torch. However, with a Nino-ish pattern in place the clouds and moisture will prevent a true torch.

3. It has a real problem trying to crank a massive low to the Great Lakes every other run. Has not happened yet, and that erroneous feature has to be blowing-up the rest of the run when present.

It is rare to have a non-winter just as it is rare to have January cold like last winter, especially w/out a snow pack. I think a prolonged period of extreme cold is off the table...period. That does not mean we won't see cold. However, as bearish as I have been this winter on temps, it is way too early to say that snow won't reach normal or even above. So many respected mets went cold and snowy(extreme even), their ideas have to have some merit. Could it be group think? Sure. But the mets on this board resist that pretty well IMO. So, at some point I think the pattern they foretold will at some point show itself. It won't save their forecasts, but should add merit to what they forecast. In a sense, I am going to use the same philosophy that I used in late November to cast doubt on those extreme forecasts...it's too good to be true, too extreme to be accurately predicted w/ any skill. To say the winter will go snowless goes against climo and the Nino-ish pattern in place. It's too bad to be true when saying the winter is over. I think we get a good period of winter between the last week of January and the third week of February. Might be just three weeks...but w/ all of the energy in the southern stream and cold lurking just over the border in Canada somebody in the SE is going to hook-up. Now, if I was in the NE I might say average for snow will not be reached. However, one or two good storms in Kingsport puts us at average. This will go down as a crappy winter to track storms, but I would think we get maybe two really significant storms to track. So, have patience and if we don't get snow get some stuff done around the house. We just had a new roof put on.

Lastly, this could be a nasty, nasty spring. We all know that when the cold doesn't head south in the winter...it finds us in the spring.

edit: The 12z Euro does have a mechanism present to bring cold south, a +PNA. Up until the past few days, no mechanism to bring cold south has been present. So, that is a bit of a change...but it will be different tonight.

[Carvers Gap]

Just an observation, but we have a -NAO, +PNA, and -AO at the moment.  Those can be stubborn to move...but it does appear these are transient.

 

edit:  Those appear, at first glance, to be a blocky pattern.  However, it is not.

[tnweathernut]

Just an observation, but we have a -NAO, +PNA, and -AO at the moment.  Those can be stubborn to move...but it does appear these are transient.

 

edit:  Those appear, at first glance, to be a blocky pattern.  However, it is not.

I think the models will throw us a bone between the 7-11th.  I am liking the trends in the modeling over the past couple of days.  

That said, I also liked the period around Christmas and the period around New Year and we see how that is turning out, lol.

[Carvers Gap]

I think the models will throw us a bone between the 7-11th.  I am liking the trends in the modeling over the past couple of days.  

That said, I also liked the period around Christmas and the period around New Year and we see how that is turning out, lol.

 

Same here!  That is why I think the CPC teleconnection numbers are interesting.  They currently jive w/ what everyone was thinking for this time frame.  The atmosphere simply did something else.  Also, it will be cold this week.  Even though the NAO is negative, does not seem like a true block. 

 

...The NAO, once negative, is generally a stubborn animal to move.  With it quickly going positive or neutral, I think it was a false signal w/ no true blocking. 

[John1122]

^{Long range modeling is really as worthless as I've seen it in my years of looking at them. They show different/extreme solutions with almost every update. The GFS literally waffles between 60 degrees and 0 for the same period from run to run lately. That said, we're still in the bad pattern ditch, hopefully we can jump into a favorable pattern ditch. I still think we get some good weather, if not this will be the first time in many decades we had an extremely cold November that didn't result in a memorable winter, even if it took until well into January to get it started.}

[deltadog03]

 The video will have more on your forecast for the next few days and the 7 day. That part of the video is the short forecast, and will stop around 1:35-1:40. If you want to continue on, we will talk about the forecast, but go into more detail with the models. I will show the GFS, and talk about the EURO as well. Is the pattern changing, and will it produce anything? More on those thoughts with the trends in the models in the video. -Chris  *More shoutouts again...Yall are too funny!!**

 

https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons

[Mr Bob]

Great post Carver....lots of meaty bone to chew on...

 

In reference to groupthink...I see it more as a promising shiny new toy. I was amazed at the SAI being mentioned even by mets who normal play more of the winter forecast because they have to with a little wooley worm schtick added in. Combined with the weak ENSO signal, November cold wave and other factors, there were ample reasons for a lot of similar forecasts. It is hard to fault. The one nagging thing in my mind that was brought up by Matt Rogers pre-winter was the difficulty in repeating last years extremities(climo speaking)...and if you go back over the last 20 years, we had nothing to suggest two years in a row of such extreme cold down here. At any rate, there is a long way to go...we may be out of it for the next 15-20 days but you still have to like ENSO climo and late Jan and Feb....it is definitely not dead yet.

[Carvers Gap]

Great post Carver....lots of meaty bone to chew on...

In reference to groupthink...I see it more as a promising shiny new toy. I was amazed at the SAI being mentioned even by mets who normal play more of the winter forecast because they have to with a little wooley worm schtick added in. Combined with the weak ENSO signal, November cold wave and other factors, there were ample reasons for a lot of similar forecasts. It is hard to fault. The one nagging thing in my mind that was brought up by Matt Rogers pre-winter was the difficulty in repeating last years extremities(climo speaking)...and if you go back over the last 20 years, we had nothing to suggest two years in a row of such extreme cold down here. At any rate, there is a long way to go...we may be out of it for the next 15-20 days but you still have to like ENSO climo and late Jan and Feb....it is definitely not dead yet.

Thanks! I do give those folks a lot of credit for putting their forecast out there, takes courage. I think four variables impacted sensible WX that few could have predicted:

1. Ana seemed to drive November to be cold. Without that storm on the East Coast, it is possible the month would have not been so cold. It also seemed to "reset" the atmosphere. With all of the backwater eddies in the jet, the atmosphere appeared to be progressing nicely towards a late fall that would have led to December cold. It was almost like Ana cleared NA of cold....in November. Once December arrives, NA has to reload its cold and the snowpack erodes, making it harder for an extreme winter to get its legs.

2. The solar cycle, as weak as it is, peaked just recently. Seems there is a correlation between solar inactivity and colder winters of the past decade. So little is known about the solar cycle and climate relationship.

3. The El Niño (though not official yet I don't think) didn't behave as expected. Looks to be behaving more like a basin wide event than a Modoki El Niño. Seems like that event is driving the climate.

4. As for the SAI, I think it has merit. Like anything else in science, there is usually other evidence required to reach a decent, rigorous conclusion. But it may be a truly reliable signal that actually works as long as other climate factors are considered IMO.

And yes, I agree it is rare for extreme events to occur once in a given time frame. Even rarer to happen twice within close proximity within that time frame. So, it becomes unlikely that a cold January 14' repeats itself because climo does not support it. Chaos theory comes into play at some point...but I don't know enough about it to even remotely apply that.

[jaxjagman]

Better warming hitting the PV tonight on the GFS,almost split to 20mb around h174

[jaxjagman]

 

Better anyways

[John1122]

Massive cold once again showing up on the models. Once again, until we can actually get the pattern here it's hard to believe it'll actually happen.

[jaxjagman]

STRAT.png

 

Better anyways

 

Some even better warming on todays 12z compared to the OZ last evening,using the same time frame