John1122 Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 The GFS and Para are both once again really close on a winter storm here around the 2-4th timeframe. Both have ice/snow chances with heavier snow across Kentucky. We don't need the deep freeze and the SE ridge has a far less negative impact on our winter chances than it does the rest of the SE, especially the western half of the Valley. A SE ridge is actually better for that area for frozen precip at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 06z still throwing out a snow to freezing rain event around the 2-4th timeframe from 40 north for the western areas especially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 The GGEM gets particularly nasty for the Valley on the 3rd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Para keeps the system as all snow from 40 north, now under 180. Hope it can hold it together the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 The para has another system close behind that one that brings some additional light snow and expands snow cover across the Valley from west to east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Thank you everyone for all the of GREAT Feedback with these videos. The feedback is really helping me to make them better. Would y'all like for me to grab GFS images and put a few on there? The reason I haven't yet, is because it usually takes a really long time to do that. I can, just want to see if it will matter. I can't thank y'all enough for all the new likes with Facebook page. I am 40 away from 700 likes. Lets keep pushing There are 2 videos in 1. The latter will be the model disco/thoughts/pattern change thoughts. I STILL DO think we are going to see the pattern change, it will change and produce. Maybe just not now. I do think the I-40 corridor stands the best chance right now...More in the video, please let me know what y'all think on my FB page.. please like and share there. -Chris https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 I'm not buying any real winter weather (except maybe on the onset) for TN right now. The GFS para seems to have a cold bias and it's getting warmer with each run. Unless something drastically changes, I don't believe the cold air will be there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 27, 2014 Author Share Posted December 27, 2014 I'm not buying any real winter weather (except maybe on the onset) for TN right now. The GFS para seems to have a cold bias and it's getting warmer with each run. Unless something drastically changes, I don't believe the cold air will be there. 110% agree. There is nothing, outside of analogs, that point to any sustained cold weather. The models grow warmer with each passing run. We will be lucky to get a frosty morning. The OPs hinted at this last week, and now the ensembles have followed. The pattern change is occurring...and it is one that will make January even warmer than December compared to the norms. Like 11-12', there is nothing to track other than suspicious lows we "hope" move about 1,000 miles. I will say this again, beware of big snows prior to Thanksgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 27, 2014 Author Share Posted December 27, 2014 12z GFS(caveat....undependable for details at the range I am about to mention) does hint at a very cold NA w/ some cold seeping southeastward late in the period. Just one run. But that "look" late in the period I think is what many thought would be present all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons I still think the I-40 corridor could do the BEST with that we have to work with the next 2 weeks or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 12z GFS(caveat....undependable for details at the range I am about to mention) does hint at a very cold NA w/ some cold seeping southeastward late in the period. Just one run. But that "look" late in the period I think is what many thought would be present all winter. Better wave 1 activity hitting the PV on this afternoons euro run,should see this when Berlin updates tonight.Good chance we should start to see the MJO into 7 soon, week 2 into Jan.,just have to wait Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 12z euro had a PV split Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 12z euro had a PV split #nospilttoptobottom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 27, 2014 Author Share Posted December 27, 2014 12z euro had a PV split #nospilttoptobottom Split or not split. The 12z Euro is another nice run of the 12z suite today. Elongated trough w/ an active southern branch. At this point it seems that the trough wants to buckle west of the apps. We need one to slide along the boundary a nd not cut...obvious observation but things are quiet around here today. Still, a huge step in the right direction. Let's see if it's a blip or it holds. edit: Not a huge step, OK. Looks like w/ no blocking in the Atlantic the cold slides off the seaboard. HOWEVER, the look is more blocky overall. Implies the jet may have to buckle and slow down. Much less energy held in the SW. For Memphis and Nashville, not threats yet but not a bad look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 I've liked the look for the Western half of the Valley for a while now. N Miss, SW KY and West Tennessee actually can make out very well when the SE ridge is in place if you have those big arctic highs diving into the middle of the country. This usually puts everyone west of the Plateau under the threat for frozen precip, even if it's ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 27, 2014 Author Share Posted December 27, 2014 This is dumb sorry,you obvious are talking IMBY I literally have no idea what you are saying...I can guess the intent though. I might suggest laying off the eggnog before posting. I will cut you some slack since we like having you here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machetemoonlight Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 I literally have no idea what you are saying...I can guess the intent though. I might suggest laying off the eggnog before posting. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 There is no threat Memphis toNashville other than t-storms and wind into the 2nd week ofJan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 27, 2014 Author Share Posted December 27, 2014 I've liked the look for the Western half of the Valley for a while now. N Miss, SW KY and West Tennessee actually can make out very well when the SE ridge is in place if you have those big arctic highs diving into the middle of the country. This usually puts everyone west of the Plateau under the threat for frozen precip, even if it's ice. I agree. It is not a E TN winter wx set-up. However, having a trough sag over the mid section of the country does signal (somewhat) ice for middle and west TN, especially the northern sections. If those highs are as big as forecast...the models could easily be missing low-level Arctic air. I think those east of the Plateau are on the northwest edges of the SE ridge, thus getting SW flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 One good thing, if true, is that the GFS builds a massive snowpack over the middle of the country. If that occurs, fresh arctic air masses will have an easier time penetrating into our region. Now we may end up not getting much done all winter. We've witnessed that very thing too often since 2007 or so to deny it can happen. But the core of our winter storms and cold historically happen between January 15th and February 15th. I still think good things can happen. Some say the cold November is a bad thing, but as I did a bit of research earlier this season I found that very cold Novembers were usually followed by warm Decembers but memorable winters here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 I literally have no idea what you are saying...I can guess the intent though. I might suggest laying off the eggnog before posting. I will cut you some slack since we like having you here. lol..the sauce was right,damn you are quick i thought i deleted that faster,,sorryman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 The day 10 para, if remotely true seems to aim a ton of cold at us. It shows a 1055 HP sitting over Eastern Nebraska/Western Iowa with -25 degree temp anomolies. The GFS and the para are worlds apart on this though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 27, 2014 Author Share Posted December 27, 2014 One good thing, if true, is that the GFS builds a massive snowpack over the middle of the country. If that occurs, fresh arctic air masses will have an easier time penetrating into our region. Now we may end up not getting much done all winter. We've witnessed that very thing too often since 2007 or so to deny it can happen. But the core of our winter storms and cold historically happen between January 15th and February 15th. I still think good things can happen. Some say the cold November is a bad thing, but as I did a bit of research earlier this season I found that very cold Novembers were usually followed by warm Decembers but memorable winters here. Jax, no sweat, man. I have grown to love those posts. So, don't worry a bit. In the middle of a warm winter, it gives my great happiness. We are good, man! John1122. All good points. I was reading the winter mid-range discussion thread on the main board. One poster put all warm December, January, and February analogs into the mix. December and January(less so) were warm, but February was very cold. Nature will try to balance itself out. Though the winter will be warm on average, we can still get some memorable snows. We get those cold HPs in place w/ a southern jet...be just need some blocking. We may or may not get it. I like the look of the 12z models. May just be a blip, but certainly better than the past month. Hey John, what site do you use for the para?...Just getting back into the swing of things after working long hours this fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 27, 2014 Author Share Posted December 27, 2014 Right now, I am watching OPs as they seem to be ahead of the ensembles when a pattern change is suggested. I am not saying a change to cold will occur...just watching for a shift in the models. Today may or may not be the beginning of a shift in the models. Could easily be a blip. Could be a change. I wouldn't even surmise a guess at this point they have been so bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 I use tropical tidbits for the Para Carvers. This is a good look on there at 240 with that monster in the midwest and a ridge in the southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 there is some heights rising on the euro towards the berents sea and towards alaska this is what we want to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Jax, no sweat, man. I have grown to love those posts. So, don't worry a bit. In the middle of a warm winter, it gives my great happiness. We are good, man! John1122. All good points. I was reading the winter mid-range discussion thread on the main board. One poster put all warm December, January, and February analogs into the mix. December and January(less so) were warm, but February was very cold. Nature will try to balance itself out. Though the winter will be warm on average, we can still get some memorable snows. We get those cold HPs in place w/ a southern jet...be just need some blocking. We may or may not get it. I like the look of the 12z models. May just be a blip, but certainly better than the past month. Hey John, what site do you use for the para?...Just getting back into the swing of things after working long hours this fall. Carvers, here is the site I use for the para GFS maps. The maps are the same as the regular GFS maps from the NCEP Model Guidance Page. I like the 500mb vort maps better on this site than other sites. http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=GFS&area=NAMER&ps=model I use tropical tidbits for the Para Carvers. This is a good look on there at 240 with that monster in the midwest and a ridge in the southwest. Looks like a cold but dry look on that map if I am looking at that right. I think this is a good sign that we are getting these huge arctic highs dropping out of Canada this year just like last year. There is going to be a 1050+ mb high that will be dropping down in a few days. That is a feature that hasn't shown up the past several years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Carvers, here is the site I use for the para GFS maps. The maps are the same as the regular GFS maps from the NCEP Model Guidance Page. I like the 500mb vort maps better on this site than other sites. Looks like a cold but dry look on that map if I am looking at that right. I think this is a good sign that we are getting these huge arctic highs dropping out of Canada this year just like last year. There is going to be a 1050+ mb high that will be dropping down in a few days. That is a feature that hasn't shown up the past several years. I'll take the cold them worry about the moisture coming. Right now the firehose is on high and the cold is no where. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 hanging on by a thread,almost A sig,if not SSW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Daughter vortices at1hpa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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