John1122 Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 All the long range signals are wishy-washy. I've always found that pattens lock in and are hard ditches to get out of, even when modeling shows them ending soon. With luck we're finally going to shift this one into the colder look. At that point I believe it will stick around longer than models are currently advertising. The CPC gives their 8-14 day outlook a 2 on the 1-5 scale due to major model differences from run to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 GFSP keeps getting better and better while the GFS gets worse and worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 25, 2014 Author Share Posted December 25, 2014 All the long range signals are wishy-washy. I've always found that pattens lock in and are hard ditches to get out of, even when modeling shows them ending soon. With luck we're finally going to shift this one into the colder look. At that point I believe it will stick around longer than models are currently advertising. The CPC gives their 8-14 day outlook a 2 on the 1-5 scale due to major model differences from run to run. That is the truth, man. Hopefully, tonight's models gives us something to watch. The New Year's time frame has my attention, but I have zero idea what is going to happen. Have a great Christmas Eve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Unfortunately, with the look of the maps, the ice solution is probably more likely than snow... Yeah,like the control is showing this afternoon.Lower levels are cool with WAA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 25, 2014 Author Share Posted December 25, 2014 I won't lie, a little punch to the gut to see the signs/trends in not just the op but the ensembles as well. The key, imo, the driver right now HAS to be the EPO. That will help the AO. Euro and gfs and the ensembles are just not cutting it and not holding anything up that way at all. So basically no ridge near and over Alaska. Also means no Arctic air and no disruptions of the PV. I truly still think the pattern change is coming, but this has me a little concerned. NOT a lot yet tho, so don't jump yet. Lol Sent from my iPhone Just caught your Christmas Eve video. Great work. Very easy to follow, and I really like the details. Would be awesome to post the video here, but I couldn't find the link. Let me know if we can...and I'll paste it in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Seems like the euro was right with depositing energy in the southwest. GFS and the Para both agree now. We really need that thing to eject sooner to connect with the cold. If it doesn't - warmth is in the future. Rinse. repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 25, 2014 Author Share Posted December 25, 2014 Seems like the euro was right with depositing energy in the southwest. GFS and the Para both agree now. We really need that thing to eject sooner to connect with the cold. If it doesn't - warmth is in the future. Rinse. repeat. If the Bermuda high connects with that SE ridge...torch city for many weeks. Will not be moved. I have seen many promising winters die at the feet of a Bermuda high. The 0z Euro kicked more out this AM. So, I still think the trough does not hold back...but the case can definitely be made otherwise. If we get a Bermuda high, then our last best hope is late winter or early spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrgolf Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Happy holidays!! I'm a long time lurker. I truly believe that a SSW event would help us dramatically. Also, the qbo is really negative....too negative for this time of yr.I believe if it don't rise, we are in deep doodoo. Too much west to east flow. We aren't developing the -nao either. I hope that changes. So many moving parts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Much better look today on the 12z out W,lets hope this trend continues,back in the storm mode Edit:should have said winter mode,what a great change today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Happy holidays!! I'm a long time lurker. I truly believe that a SSW event would help us dramatically. Also, the qbo is really negative....too negative for this time of yr.I believe if it don't rise, we are in deep doodoo. Too much west to east flow. We aren't developing the -nao either. I hope that changes. So many moving parts If you really follow weather (like we all do here), it feels like we have been tracking a pattern change for a LONG time. In reality, it's still only late December. Many weak Niño or even neutral warm events get late starts. 3 weeks from today is still mid January. If we can get a 4-6 week period of winter weather with multiple threats and one or two decent snows it will be a good winter. Make one of those a 6+ snow and good winter goes to great IMO. As for the SSW, I have no idea what happens there, but I don't think we need it to have a cold winter. I do wish it would happen though. If we step back and look at the big picture. We really do have a lot going for us. Time will tell when we finally start cashing in..... Merry Christmas all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrgolf Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Tnwxnut, I think a lot will have to go our way for us to see much of a wintry pattern. I'm from jonesboro ar. Best thing to do is just have patience and pray that things turn around sooner or later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Happy holidays!! I'm a long time lurker. I truly believe that a SSW event would help us dramatically. Also, the qbo is really negative....too negative for this time of yr.I believe if it don't rise, we are in deep doodoo. Too much west to east flow. We aren't developing the -nao either. I hope that changes. So many moving parts Welcome to the board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 through 144 the Euro is gonna be different also,the HP 1050 is more towards the E ,same as the GFS just showed,much better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Tnwxnut, I think a lot will have to go our way for us to see much of a wintry pattern. I'm from jonesboro ar. Best thing to do is just have patience and pray that things turn around sooner or later Welcome to the board. I think you are in a good spot actually to see wintry weather before Jan 5th. Much more so than me in Johnson City TN. I can get to Canada quicker than I can Memphis, if that tells you how far away I am. I like the way the models spread out the cold. I would guess even with the bulk of the energy sitting and spinning out west it could spit out smaller pieces of energy that could create an overrunning event, especially back toward your area. Best of luck, hope you score soon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Euro crapped out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrgolf Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Euro crapped out This run wasn't good at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrgolf Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Welcome to the board. I think you are in a good spot actually to see wintry weather before Jan 5th. Much more so than me in Johnson City TN. I can get to Canada quicker than I can Memphis, if that tells you how far away I am. I like the way the models spread out the cold. I would guess even with the bulk of the energy sitting and spinning out west it could spit out smaller pieces of energy that could create an overrunning event, especially back toward your area. Best of luck, hope you score soon! Don't you play golf? I've seen you wear a titleist hat over the years lol. I am as well. I'm decent most times....I think. I hope we see some type of winter precip around here before much longer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 This run wasn't good at all? Nope,it's screaming zr storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Talk about some extreme weather.The euro is showing a stripe of zr .3" from c/ark into most of all Tn.Followed by severe thunderstorms,even showing some 300 capes all the way into Tn.with wind shear 60-70 kts.Good thing it's long range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Just an example,if it's right we should be looking at some strong t-storms if this is anywhere right as this extends W to E Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 25, 2014 Author Share Posted December 25, 2014 12z Euro is showing freezing rain followed by a lakes cutter? The model is off its rocker this afternoon. I do buy the overrunning or cutter solutions...just not both. Mercy. Awful, awful, awful. Looks to me like the models are struggling to find the boundary between a screaming southern jet that is juiced w/ Nino-ish characteristics and an Arctic boundary sagging south. So, basically its the SE ridge against Arctic air. I know where I have my money. Freezing rain would fit this pattern and is something to watch as we approach New Year's. But let me say this, the models are so schizophrenic...I would not trust anything past 72 hrs. Still looks warm in the long range. Still looks like a fire hose pointed at the Southeast. More cold air in Canada w/ each run. But like I said, just absolutely awful consistency for a model that used to lock on a solution and never move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 12z Euro is showing freezing rain followed by a lakes cutter? The model is off its rocker this afternoon. I do buy the overrunning or cutter solutions...just not both. Mercy. Awful, awful, awful. Looks to me like the models are struggling to find the boundary between a screaming southern jet that is juiced w/ Nino-ish characteristics and an Arctic boundary sagging south. So, basically its the SE ridge against Arctic air. I know where I have my money. Freezing rain would fit this pattern and is something to watch as we approach New Year's. But let me say this, the models are so schizophrenic...I would not trust anything past 72 hrs. Still looks warm in the long range. Still looks like a fire hose pointed at the Southeast. More cold air in Canada w/ each run. But like I said, just absolutely awful consistency for a model that used to lock on a solution and never move. The Euro shows it,so you discount it?Nothing more than the weeklies so who knows if its right in long range,it's just showing how it shows the pattern will evolve in it's long range.,don't matter which model it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 25, 2014 Author Share Posted December 25, 2014 The Euro shows it,so you discount it?Nothing more than the weeklies so who knows if its right in long range,it's just showing how it shows the pattern will evolve in it's long range.,don't matter which model it is. Yo, Jax. Wasn't a response to your post...I noticed we almost posted at the same time. I actually think either scenario is possible, cutter or freezing rain. I just don't see both happening. Most models are not handling the finer details with any effectiveness. Right now...about all they show is above normal temps w/ interruptions of cold, rainy conditions, a lack of any mechanism to send cold south, a persistent SE ridge. But to answer your question, I totally discount the 12z Euro. Could it happen? I guess. Just looks bizarre. I mean could there be a period of overrunning before the low cuts west of the Apps. I guess. I just think the frontal boundary that would allow for that would either creep north or trap the cold in the Valley. And yes, the model has been awful this week. But in no way is that directed at you. At some point the models(I believe) will center the trough between Memphis and Denver. I strongly think a SE ridge will build w/ potentially that becoming a Bermuda high(less likely). Eventually, if the Bermuda high does not lock in place, everything slides East and off the coast. Eventually a zonal pattern follows. And it begins again. That appears to be the pattern. As we approach Spring, that is a recipe for big snows...just not yet. There is some evidence that blocking returns at the end of January. Until then, it is waiting...waiting...and more waiting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Yo, Jax. Wasn't a response to your post...I noticed we almost posted at the same time. I actually think either scenario is possible, cutter or freezing rain. I just don't see both happening. Most models are not handling the finer details with any effectiveness. Right now...about all they show is above normal temps w/ interruptions of cold, rainy conditions, a lack of any mechanism to send cold south, a persistent SE ridge. But to answer your question, I totally discount the 12z Euro. Could it happen? I guess. Just looks bizarre. I mean could there be a period of overrunning before the low cuts west of the Apps. I guess. I just think the frontal boundary that would allow for that would either creep north or trap the cold in the Valley. And yes, the model has been awful this week. But in no way is that directed at you. At some point the models(I believe) will center the trough between Memphis and Denver. I strongly SE ridge will build w/ potentially that becoming a Bermuda high(less likely). Eventually, if the Bermuda high does not lock in place, everything slides East and off the coast. Eventually a zonal pattern follows. And it begins again. That appears to be the pattern. As we approach Spring, that is a recipe for big snows...just not yet. There is some evidence that blocking returns at the end of January. Until then, it is waiting...waiting...and more waiting. Winter time just saying for us in the Valley many unexpected things can happen when we have a cold pool.I think it was in our historical thread me and MrBob talked about how a system that spawned up (just using this as an example) that the models never showed and a LP SYSTEM formed in MS the models never showed at all,this was one of the best storms we've seen in the SE in decades.I'm not saying by all means this will happen,just a thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 26, 2014 Author Share Posted December 26, 2014 Folks in the SE forum saying the Euro weeklies are pretty warm - torch warm in weeks three and four. Truth to that? We are west of the Apps...so I thought I would ask as it could be different. If so, I think we are looking at hoping one storm in February saves the day. That is a bit disappointing as it would have been nice to track something. As it is...I am going to get some things done outside in the spring like weather. The CPC ensembles for the AO, NAO, and PNA are just not worth discussing. I will get to the end of January before calling it a day. February looks like a decent set-up, but w/ four weeks even a passing warm spell eliminates much our chances. Outside of analogs used to predict this winter, I can find absolutely nothing that says January isn't going to be very warm. Sorry to have to share news on this...but hey, we have a chance to save on our power bills and get some things done around the house that would have waited for meteorological spring. Looks like spring doesn't come early...it's here now. Things will be budding soon. My peach tree is thinking about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Carvers, It is a torch for you guys, too, and all around you. I should add that the weeklies also have a +NAO for all of the weeks. But it is only wx. Enjoy that wx as it is the only wx we've got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 yup,the weeklies suck.The pattern looks ice and severe to me,we really need a SSW event,but the models are going away from this a true split anyways Edit:I forgot to say lots of Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 gfs lost the HP,COLD RAIN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 The PV is losing its heat flux on the Euro wave one and two,you won't see a SSW with that look,the PV is stretched out but after that it more than likely will go back around the equator. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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