deltadog03 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 I won't lie, a little punch to the gut to see the signs/trends in not just the op but the ensembles as well. The key, imo, the driver right now HAS to be the EPO. That will help the AO. Euro and gfs and the ensembles are just not cutting it and not holding anything up that way at all. So basically no ridge near and over Alaska. Also means no Arctic air and no disruptions of the PV. I truly still think the pattern change is coming, but this has me a little concerned. NOT a lot yet tho, so don't jump yet. Lol Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2014 Author Share Posted December 22, 2014 No jumping on my part. I am more like Widre in this sense...it is what it is. I don't get too emotionally involved unless say we were supposed to get 2' of snow and it rained. LOL. One thing that I was worried about is that it seems when the mtns get hammered w/ snow in mid-fall, seems like the winter pattern gets out of sync with moisture and cold. And I also think the pattern is just not unfolding as thought. Cohen mentioned that feature in NW Asia, and I think it is changing things downstream. Now, I think many of us will see a period of winter that will be cold and snowy. Looking more like the last week of January and the first two weeks of Feb as a guess. I think CPC is banking on that as well as they are still going with cooler than normal temps. I actually don't see temps being more than a degree or two above normal, if that. Mainly due to clouds and Nino-like conditions. The lack of a driver to bring Arctic air south is my main concern. Without that, snow outside of the mtns is marginal. However, with so much energy in the system, seems like when it finally does get cold that it will snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2014 Author Share Posted December 22, 2014 Models still having a rough time with the MJO,just an example yesterday the GEFS yesterday had it in 3 going into 4,today it has it entering 5 at the end of it's respective runs.But that was an extreme flip yesterday with the ems.,annoying i must say by the drastic change The one hope I do have for sustained winter weather is that the pattern is not set just yet. Tnweathernut has mentioned that as well. My concern currently is that things are appearing to settle in a direction that does not lead to sustained winter weather. That has been the case for a couple of days. I would be supremely glad to be wrong on this. Maybe the MJO jumping around is just another example of the pattern not being set.......We all have seen cold patterns not depicted by models until the event is upon us. However, many of signals were in place and the models were not responding. At the moment, models are not responding and the indicators are not the best. Analogs are good, yes. However, they do not drive the weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Well,the Euro 12z found the cold air again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 GEFS agrees with cold again as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 ..SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS... ON CHRISTMAS DAY...EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE EXITING THESOUTHEASTERN U.S. IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG COLD FRONT MOVINGTHROUGH WHILE COMMA-HEAD PRECIPITATION MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS UPPERNEW ENGLAND. OUT WEST...WET CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVER MUCH OFTHE WESTERN U.S. GIVEN THE TROF DIGGING THROUGH THE REGION.CONDITIONS BECOME MORE QUIET ACROSS THE EAST WITH A SURFACE HIGHANCHORING THE AREA. IT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A BIT MORE ACTIVEACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY AS THE HEIGHT FALLS SPREADEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. OF COURSE IF THE SLOWER SOLUTIONSLIKE THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET VERIFY...IT COULD BECOME QUITE WET ACROSSTHE WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF COAST AND ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT.THE PATTERN BECOMES A BIT MORE NEBULOUS THEREAFTER DEPENDING ONTHE POSITION OF THE WESTERN U.S. TROF. HOWEVER...THIS SHOULD BRINGANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO SECTIONS OF THE WEST AT THE VERYLEAST. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...READINGS AT 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVENORMAL WILL BE COMMONPLACE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. ON THE CHRISTMASDAY. THESE POSITIVE ANOMALIES WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD AHEADOF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. MEANWHILE...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURESSHOULD SPILL INTO MUCH OF THE U.S. TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF THEPERIOD AS A CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS FILLS THE REGION. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Much better look to D11,but it's losing it's punch after D8-9 as you can see of the GEFS MEAN 10hpa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 "big positive tilt longwaves build big surface Highs" That's the theme in my premium extended outlook--with things on schedule for the big pattern change as a ridge develops in Alaska and western North America in 6 days. A huge chunk of cold air gets pushed south and east of the Rockies anchored with a 1050 mb High--thats pretty strong, and reminiscent of last year's big ones. Southwest flow will still rule in the deep south, but shallow cold air at some point before New Year's will set the stage for overrunning Wintery Precip in Texas, Arkansas, Tennessee and adjoining regions mostly WEST of the Apps. It's a pretty classic synoptic pattern for Icing deep in Texas. WXSOUTH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ben4vols Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Jax, any chance we can get a 0z Euro readout for BNA? Always appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 More bad news for cold lovers in the Euro ens and weeklies...early and mid Jan look above normal again on this run. As has been the case for this winter, though, I would not use torch... I am sure someone will tell me I am trolling here shortly. Week four does show a stronger ridge over AK but still a +NAO. Late Jan and February is usually favorable for some interesting activity down here anyway so perhaps if it were to verify it would be for the best.In the meantime, the 00Z Euro says that there is something interesting around New Years...it looks perhaps like more of an ice threat today which I would prefer not to happen but we shall see if it sticks in subsequent runs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 More bad news for cold lovers in the Euro ens and weeklies...early and mid Jan look above normal again on this run. As has been the case for this winter, though, I would not use torch... I am sure someone will tell me I am trolling here shortly. Week four does show a stronger ridge over AK but still a +NAO. Late Jan and February is usually favorable for some interesting activity down here anyway so perhaps if it were to verify it would be for the best. In the meantime, the 00Z Euro says that there is something interesting around New Years...it looks perhaps like more of an ice threat today which I would prefer not to happen but we shall see if it sticks in subsequent runs... I'll take the euro ensembles . 00z was a much better run . Keeps a negative EPO which it kept breaking down on previous runs. Worked out well for us last year if it can drive the pattern this winter then sign me up. I hate the weeklies. They are like op runs . If you don't like what you see Monday , come back Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Jax, any chance we can get a 0z Euro readout for BNA? Always appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 I was traveling and with family the last couple of days. I guess I am glad I have been a little limited when it comes to posting, as it appears the modeling took a dive into the deep end of a pool with no water. This is quickly becoming a very wierd winter, and since it's not playing out like it was suppose to........ mets everywhere are finding the fence to straddle it while a lot enthusiasts are finding the nearest cliff and jumping. I will admit, I thought we'd be cold by Christmas with the chance for some fun. Storms and 60's followed by backside flurries isn't the "fun" i was hoping for. So where do we go from here? It looks good that we might finally find some cold air and possibly an overrunning event or two between the 28th and Jan 5th. The ridging into Alaska is very nice and on ALL the models around and beyond hour 120. Big highs are projected to come into NA around the Rockies and spread out just beyond a couple of days later. This will likely benefit those in the TN Valley at some point, especially the further west and north into the valley you go. I would not be surprised with the look of the cold press and the look of the positive long wave trough with a WSW flow, to have multiple disturbances and overrunning opportunities in that flow. It's the longer range where the bigger questions arise. Do we revert to a big +AO, break down the western ridging, and flood NA with more of the same from December or does the ridging hold beyond this period (January 8th ish and beyond)? Even if we do revert back, does the crashing SOI help, does the QBO start relinquishing its grip and help, do we finally get a split of the PV? There are MANY other questions that just can't be answered where we sit right now. If we had a wintry threat or two in the TN Valley in the coming 6-15, followed by a one to two week warmup then everything finally came together (like the analogs said) to produce a nice wintry period from the last week or so of January through February................... I think most would consider that a big win for the winter season (if you like snow and ice that is). A lot of ramblings here, but I hope we have something to track very soon. Merry Christmas everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 I'll take the euro ensembles . 00z was a much better run . Keeps a negative EPO which it kept breaking down on previous runs. Worked out well for us last year if it can drive the pattern this winter then sign me up. I hate the weeklies. They are like op runs . If you don't like what you see Monday , come back Thursday I don't totally disagree, but they have been pretty steady lately in showing a less than desirable setup. If we can score a threat or two before breaking it down, and a favorable pattern comes back late January and into February, with multiple threats, most on our board will be good. Surfing through the threads on the SE forum will be torture if this happens, but it is what it is......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 I'll take the euro ensembles . 00z was a much better run . Keeps a negative EPO which it kept breaking down on previous runs. Worked out well for us last year if it can drive the pattern this winter then sign me up. I hate the weeklies. They are like op runs . If you don't like what you see Monday , come back Thursday They correctly sniffed out the better pattern shift aorund Christmas time then back to craptacular after the New Year...Sure...they bombed November but there were mitigating circumstances...this is a fairly consistent look from last week. I don't see much that looks good in the last part of EPS....certainly nothing that bodes well for Jan.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 23, 2014 Author Share Posted December 23, 2014 12z Euro going back to the idea that the end of Dec and start to January will be cold. Still looks like the cold does not have staying power. However, as depicted today, it is a pattern that could certainly deliver. Similar patterns on GFS and Euro this afternoon. Is it possible, asking a genuine question, that some bad data got into the systems as part of the whole American model suite issue of the past few days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 12z Euro going back to the idea that the end of Dec and start to January will be cold. Still looks like the cold does not have staying power. However, as depicted today, it is a pattern that could certainly deliver. Similar patterns on GFS and Euro this afternoon. Is it possible, asking a genuine question, that some bad data got into the systems as part of the whole American model suite issue of the past few days? Not so sure on the Euro modeling. It looked like the Alaskan block gets taken out rather quickly, but it also dumps a ton of cold air into NA, including parts of the southeast. After looking closer, it looks like a "reload" with the Aleutian low in a good spot, and a lot of cold air on our side of the globe, especially Canada. I wondered the same thing after reading the posts and glancing at the modeling. It sure has done a 180 from those runs to today's runs. Pattern changes are ALWAYS hard on the models. They can only handle so much i suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 24, 2014 Author Share Posted December 24, 2014 Serious question...Did the issue w/ the American model suite have to do with missing, incomplete, or corrupt data? If so, would that data have impacted other models? The Euro now has a pretty significant cold outbreak right at New Year's. Now, IMO I don't think it lasts more than 10 days with a Nino in place....saw tnwxnut mention this in the SE forum. The southern stream attacks the base of any trough. Way better than earlier this week. To me, looks like some bad data was ingested or maybe an SSW was not recognized. Very bizarre. Another model flip of sorts. I will still ride the fact that we don't have a severely cold winter with temps slightly above...and snowfall at normal. Still, even the ensembles were impacted.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 The 00z and now 06z are starting to hint at a pretty significant overrunning moisture situation for TN around New Years. I'm hoping ice isn't going to be a concern on the southern portion of this boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 The 00z and now 06z are starting to hint at a pretty significant overrunning moisture situation for TN around New Years. I'm hoping ice isn't going to be a concern on the southern portion of this boundary. Unfortunately, with the look of the maps, the ice solution is probably more likely than snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfsp®ion=us&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2014122412&fh=186&xpos=0&ypos=300 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2014122412&fh=186&xpos=0&ypos=437 Worlds apart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Unfortunately, with the look of the maps, the ice solution is probably more likely than snow... 12z loses it, but there's really very little consensus during this that period anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 It's interesting seeing the 5h maps. I have heard it mentioned if there is a trough east if Hawaii, you can't get a trough to sit in the southwest. I don't buy that, even though I partially agree. I have seen several times where the main trough and energy sits out west for several days when the western or Alaskan ridge tilts itself to the northeast. This might be one of those times. At the very least it's a pattern change with the introduction of very cold air into NA. Time will tell if we can score something or not, I hope there is a little bias at play here with the Euro, but I have seen it nail things like this in dealing with energy into the southwest before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 24, 2014 Author Share Posted December 24, 2014 Yet another set of wildly different solutions compared to yesterday. Interestingly, the models don't differ very much from each other at 12z. Seems like something is very amiss. The models stay in agreement within each time frame...and then switch in unison to something vastly different. Still seem to be pointing to some variation of a warming trend with a SE ridge...at this point...they are almost useless for determine anything outside of three days. Absolutely the worst I have ever seen. One day Arctic cold with all out suppression, the next a Pineapple Express. Seems like Niño will win this. Even the ensembles are off. Like Burns said the other day, could be something very unusual will unfold. Right now...cool and rainy is the pattern IMO and best guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 24, 2014 Author Share Posted December 24, 2014 Looks like Euro is back to its old tricks of burying systems in the southwest. Certainly could happen, but the weak Niño and a trough east of Hawaii are going to kick it out of there. I look for cold to come charging down the plains and center east of the Rockies between Memphis and Denver. A SE ridge, a normal Niño feature, should be prevalent. Not great for most of the valley, except maybe Memphis. Eventually, the cold should send pieces East and maybe connect with the moist ridge in place. We could score an upset with that pattern....better hope a Bermuda high doesn't build into that SE ridge. Very tough to move. In the same way I do not see cold in the SW, I do not see it in the SE for prolonged periods. This winter reminds me of those snowless winters of the 90s. Feast or total famine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 The funny part is how people keep speaking of a southeast ridge when I'm reality it's a product of digging energy in the SW and pumping heights out front which is not a true southeast ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 24, 2014 Author Share Posted December 24, 2014 The funny part is how people keep speaking of a southeast ridge when I'm reality it's a product of digging energy in the SW and pumping heights out front which is not a true southeast ridge IMO, I see it as a juicy southern jet bending north as a direct result of no blocking over the Atlantic. I am not buying the Euro digging out west. I am saying the SE ridge will be a true SE ridge due to lack of Atlantic blocking. The SE ridge during many Niño seasons is prevalent no matter its origins. The CPC ensembles today show nothing more than transient shots of cold in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 The funny part is how people keep speaking of a southeast ridge when I'm reality it's a product of digging energy in the SW and pumping heights out front which is not a true southeast ridgethis, heights will rise in response to the digging trough.A trough east of Hawaii will kick east any sw trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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