michsnowfreak Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Anyone know why the Parallel stopped running Dec 3rd? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Anyone know why the Parallel stopped running Dec 3rd? IT was supposed to replace the OP GFS by now, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Detroits avg high today has fallen to 39F....and will now remain below 40F until March 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 IT was supposed to replace the OP GFS by now, right? Maybe thats it. I just had a thought. Remember the talk was that this parallel version would correct the GFS's cool bias? This warmup has been delayed and delayed and now muted tremendously from what it once was. I wonder if this will be the NEW GFS bias now? At least until we break out of the pattern of below normal temps that has dominated the last year and a half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Anyone know why the Parallel stopped running Dec 3rd?Because of super computer maintenance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 IT was supposed to replace the OP GFS by now, right?Implementation of the "new" GFS was previously supposed to be on 12/17, but has been delayed until 1/14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Implementation of the "new" GFS was previously supposed to be on 12/17, but has been delayed until 1/14. so much for my above post about wondering if the new GFS has a warm bias. Its not the "new" gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/SLR/zones/iwx.GIF Pretty close, actually. Most of your snows will be around 10-12:1, though. Thanks for sharing. I replaced it with IND and found the average is 12:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Thanks for sharing. I replaced it with IND and found the average is 12:1. For the entire US: http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/SLR/slrmap.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Next week could've been a good north flow lake effect event with a colder airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Grey skies, northern winds with a chilly, damp, hue of winter in the sky. While torchy to November standards the ground is still cold and frosty. Primed for winter to commence. It will be time to drop the blades soon !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/SLR/zones/iwx.GIF Pretty close, actually. Most of your snows will be around 10-12:1, though. Thanks for that. It was a pretty good educated guess. Synoptic systems in this area usually do produce 10 or 11:1 ratios. However, we get a surprising amount of LES that makes it down here that I figured would skew the ratios a little higher. The map depicts the higher ratios nearer to the lake nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Week 1 in Dec will go down with zero precip. Met winter off to a benign start. I think if most of us hadn't seen above normal snowfall in Nov the complaint thread would be filling up pretty quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Sunny and low 40s around here today... pretty nice. I'm enjoying the break from the very cold weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 nice to see the lake clouds rolling over most of the day (in terms of future prospects)...when the winds weren't kickin' it felt like a decent day out....but still rather raw in open areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Picked up 0.07" of ice water overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Been receiving ice water all morning. 0 flakes to be seen so far. Big fat flakes coming down in Gurnee. Starting to snow in Racine as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 As far as the upcoming warmth, I'll guess there will be 2 or 3 days in the 50s in LAF through the 15th (average high here is upper 30s during that timeframe). Airmass gets fairly warm aloft but degree of mixing is in question so best to not go overboard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 1.8" overnight. made it pretty out. snow depth is 18-20" in the yard. actually very much looking forward to mid 30's this weekend. will be nice to work in the garage with the door up for a change. the snow will return soon enough. was reading what a met at MQT had to say about the mild Winter forecasted and he said he still believes the belts that see 200" a season would still see their normal snow. Lots of Winter to be had by all still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 As far as the upcoming warmth, I'll guess there will be 2 or 3 days in the 50s in LAF through the 15th (average high here is upper 30s during that timeframe). Airmass gets fairly warm aloft but degree of mixing is in question so best to not go overboard. Also, with the southerly flow in place, there could be potential for an advection stratus deck to develop (limiting solar insolation further). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Dense overcast, drizzle, and 37 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Fog has been trying to form in the last hour. Very low ceiling today has made it look like twilight almost the whole day. Last December, tomorrow the area had it's first sub zero temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 1.8" overnight. made it pretty out. snow depth is 18-20" in the yard. actually very much looking forward to mid 30's this weekend. will be nice to work in the garage with the door up for a change. the snow will return soon enough. was reading what a met at MQT had to say about the mild Winter forecasted and he said he still believes the belts that see 200" a season would still see their normal snow. Lots of Winter to be had by all still. curious...who forecasted a mild winter up there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Happy anniversary lol! The first major snowstorm of last years historic winter here was Dec 14th, but December 8th is THE night it started. A snowfall of 0.9" fell, and the snow depth the morning of December 9th was 1"...so after a depth of 0 on December 8th, DTW would not see a depth of 0 again until March 29th! The depth got patchy Christmas week but other than that the brutal winter was just beginning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 curious...who forecasted a mild winter up there? this one was being referenced in the conversation, but numerous ones mirror this. this was some of the conversation: "It is still a little early to tell, but it appears the pattern change could last through the end of December." " there are still plenty of mixed signals on that one, but the latest trends are pointing toward a better chance of above average temps until Christmas, then temps around average into mid-January. After that, it becomes quite difficult as regional patterns are rather unpredictable beyond a month." "There is nothing to indicate that the snowfall for the lake effect snow belts will be any different than usual this winter. Lake Superior usually remains mostly open through the winter. Last winter's freeze was much out of the ordinary." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 The one that came out on November 20 is a bit different...has equal chances or elevated chances of below normal for everyone in the subforum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 I edited and posted a few of the quotes from the conversation in my above post. nothing surprising tho. thx Hoosier, I hadn't seen that version. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Been a very steady light rain here. 37 ATM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 some rando flakes mixing in...probably the last snow for a long time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 You know its December when....even the most boring pattern possible is accompanied by near constant overcast. (Powerball must be loving this weather /sarcasm ). DTW picked up the first measurable precip of the month, 0.14" of rain last night. I picked up 0.17". Perhaps a few flurries tonight. Temps still below normal for the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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