snowlover2 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 First month of met winter is almost upon us. Looks like it will start kind of mild with a possible storm around the 5th which could bring snow to the great lakes states and colder air for all of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 GFS runs have got a little bit colder in the day 4-5 range with some seriously cold air just on the other side into Canada (850's of -30 deg C) Also looks like its ingesting the snow cover now and creating very cold sfc temps across ND around the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 to an extent, the 12z euro agrees^^^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 12z EURO agrees pretty well on the cooler outlook for next week. Sunday is the warmest day. After that most of areas of the subforum stay below 40° > 240 hours. Snow cover is starting to play a role now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 Looks a little swingy between average and below average to start out December temps wise...we'll see what is left of the regions snowpack after this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 GFS runs have got a little bit colder in the day 4-5 range with some seriously cold air just on the other side into Canada (850's of -30 deg C) Also looks like its ingesting the snow cover now and creating very cold sfc temps across ND around the same time. 00z NAM 60-hour forecast for central Ontario around Lake Nipigon is an 850mb temp -33.7C. Little bit chilly for Lake Superior. (Well into the -20s at 850mb over Lake Superior) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 December 2014: It's going to get a lot worse before it gets better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 December 2014: It's going to get a lot worse before it gets better.One thing is for sure in that this will not be a repeat of last December. Man those GEFS scream strong el niño. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 december 2014 - never forget Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 december 2014 - never forget You can blame me.. Getting married on Saturday, have relatives flying in on Wednesday. So, need some non-winter weather over the next 7 days. After that, I say game on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 mazel tov Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 95 degree spread across the country currently. -20 in ND and 75 in the FL keys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Really cold day today, but at least it's sunny. 14°-15° locally. Single digits out towards Madison and snow covered areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 december 2014 - never forget Climo. Not best climo or worst climo, just......climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 It some respects, this is looking a bit like a La Nina. November 1949, for example, saw colder than average temperatures in my area only for December to warm up quite significantly; it got into the upper 50s on December 22. It will be interesting to see if Toronto hits 60F in December. I hope not, but it would appear possible that it does. http://climate.weather.gc.ca/climateData/dailydata_e.html?timeframe=2&Prov=&StationID=5097&mlyRange=1937-01-01%7C2012-12-01&Year=1949&cmdB1=Go&Month=12&Day=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Nah, the projected pattern looks nothing like a December Nina. Here's December 1949...cold in a lot of Canada and into the northern Plains. If the ensembles are to be believed, this would be the look for this December by mid-month below. Granted I'm not saying a repeat of December 2006 is upon us, but the greatest positive departures look to be in western/central Canada and then into the northern Plains/upper Midwest. Pretty classic Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Today's 12z op GFS 16 day total precipitation forecast for LAF. Not that I've always looked, but I don't think I can recall a number that low before...even when we were deep in drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Nah, the projected pattern looks nothing like a December Nina. Here's December 1949...cold in a lot of Canada and into the northern Plains. dec 1949.png If the ensembles are to be believed, this would be the look for this December by mid-month below. Granted I'm not saying a repeat of December 2006 is upon us, but the greatest positive departures look to be in western/central Canada and then into the northern Plains/upper Midwest. Pretty classic Nino. dec 2006.png What we're in right now though does resemble more of what you think of as a typical Nina pattern, with the pronounced cold north/warm south gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 What we're in right now though does resemble more of what you think of as a typical Nina pattern, with the pronounced cold north/warm south gradient. I suppose so, but I'm thinking more down the road towards mid-month...as I said in my post. This doesn't say Nina to me. 5-10 and 10-15 day 2m departures from the 12z GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 If the ensembles are to be believed, one of our analog years may very well have to be 1923. Note how warm the month was overall and how some of the warmest readings were between the 8th and the 13th. I'm not sure if 1923-1924 was an El Nino, though. http://climate.weather.gc.ca/climateData/dailydata_e.html?timeframe=2&Prov=ONT&StationID=5051&dlyRange=1840-03-01%7C2013-12-10&cmdB1=Go&Year=1923&Month=12&Day=30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 1923-24 was a Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Currently 5F here. Was -2F even at 11am. Just brutal. Ice in the lake about 30 feet from shore measuring about 3.5" as of yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 1923-24 was a Nino. Interesting. I checked the Toronto stats for January and February 1924 and, while it wasn't overly cold, there was a fair bit of snow (61cm in January and 82cm in February). Really interesting how there have been Nino winters in the distant past - including 1855-1856 and 1923-1924 - which have seen torch Decembers only to be followed by decent January and Februaries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Interesting. I checked the Toronto stats for January and February 1924 and, while it wasn't overly cold, there was a fair bit of snow (61cm in January and 82cm in February). Really interesting how there have been Nino winters in the distant past - including 1855-1856 and 1923-1924 - which have seen torch Decembers only to be followed by decent January and Februaries. Another winter is 1911-12. Very mild December followed by a very cold January and February (especially January). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Ottawa went from one of its mildest Decembers on record in 1923 to a very cold and snowy January 1924. Take a look at these observations for that month. Over 100cm of snow and a mean of minus 11C. Now that's what I call a blockbuster month! http://climate.weather.gc.ca/climateData/dailydata_e.html?timeframe=2&Prov=ONT&StationID=4333&dlyRange=1889-11-01%7C2014-01-30&Year=1924&Month=1&cmdB1=Go&Day=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Another winter is 1911-12. Very mild December followed by a very cold January and February (especially January). Interesting find. 1911-1912 was indeed very cold in Ontario, apart from December. I watched a documentary a couple of years ago which said that that winter had been above average in the high arctic and that the iceberg which sank the Titanic had broken off from an ice field as a result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Gonna be a cold one tonight. Down to 2 already and it isn't dark. 1.2" of snow today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Made it to 20° today. Lake effect clouds keeping the temperature in check this evening. Even a few flurries falling right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Its been a COLD 2014 in Detroit. I was checking what it would take for this year to place in the top 20 coldest years (since 1874), which would be the first time since 1980. Only 6 of the 20 coldest years on record occurred since 1926! For Detroit to place at 20th coldest, December would have to avg 34.4F, which is 4.1F ABOVE normal For Detroit to place at 15th coldest, December would have to avg 29.6F, which is 0.5F BELOW normal For Detroit to place at 10th coldest, December would have to avg 27.2F, which is 2.9F BELOW normal For Detroit to place at 5th coldest, December would have to avg 20.0F, which is 10.1F BELOW normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 -10 here. just sw in Michigamme it's -22. stars are absolutely amazing tonight tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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