Deck Pic Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Well first of all it may be more reliable to look at ensembles at that range, not one op run The EPS are screaming warmth for at least a couple days mid month...of course that is a long way off....but from this range it is a surprisingly robust signal for a mean... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 If you're willing to buy the Day 13-15 GEFS with a healthy dose of salt, it possibly shows something positive. The high heights that are present throughout the central and eastern CONUS and Canada around Day 10 shrink and move toward northern Hudson Bay and Baffin island. This is a nice positioning for a west-based -NAO. It's a long way off and wouldn't work alone to make us flip to a frigid wintry pattern, but it's about the only positive thing I can see right now. Euro ens show a ridge building north of HI that looks like it will try to wedge between Troughs in the GOA and Aleutians. This could be good because it could possibly take up residence in the GOA/west coast and help send the epo back negative. A troubling trend is towards a +AO. It's not strong or anything but it's there on both the GEFS/EPS. We'll see if that actually happens before worrying much. However, it would be quite unlike 02-03 or 09-10. 94 and 06 remain plastered in CPC analogs as well. Is it a warning shot? I'm not really sure but I don't like seeing it. If the AO is + during the second half of the month then we'll have even more work to do to get into a good pattern. It's a safe guess to say the current pac driven pattern is stable and will take time to move around. Expecting a quick flip (while possible) will cause some frustration. Where we go from there is a burning question. The muted torch talk means nothing to me. I only care about height patterns. Even if the next couple weeks end up BN and we get some freak event, the overall setup in the NH royally sucks for snow chances and we're still going backwards instead of forwards. Until that changes I don't have much positive to say. Sure would be nice to time a flip before the holidays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 If we don't have any good signals by the new year, then I'll freak out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 4, 2014 Author Share Posted December 4, 2014 How we lookin? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 How we lookin? Analog cold is brutal. Model cold...nassomuch. Real weather, seasonal. Ordered my analog snowman kit from Amazon this morning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 How we lookin? Not so good. At least we have each other. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 we got spoiled last year.....but i can see a full meltdown as the models get worse and worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 we got spoiled last year.....but i can see a full meltdown as the models get worse and worse people forget that with el nino... we can get pretty screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 I'm punting the first week of December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 C'mon, Bob. Buy American ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Thats actually worlds better than the ECMWF once showed...go check out yesterday's postings in the SNE thread though, phase 8 in El Nino Decembers is actually worse for cold and snow in the East than phase 7 is...phase 1 and 2 are best I believe. El Nino itself just seems to trump the MJO overall in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Throw Dec 76 out the window? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Thats actually worlds better than the ECMWF once showed...go check out yesterday's postings in the SNE thread though, phase 8 in El Nino Decembers is actually worse for cold and snow in the East than phase 7 is...phase 1 and 2 are best I believe. El Nino itself just seems to trump the MJO overall in December. I was mostly poking fun at the the possible re-emergence back into phase 4. If that were to happen with no break in the pac onslaught there will be a long line at the cliff. No panic on my end. We get stuck in plenty of crappy patterns in the majority of our winters so it's hardly unprecedented in these parts. If we are having these same conversations in 2 weeks then we know there is trouble in paradise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Thats actually worlds better than the ECMWF once showed...go check out yesterday's postings in the SNE thread though, phase 8 in El Nino Decembers is actually worse for cold and snow in the East than phase 7 is...phase 1 and 2 are best I believe. El Nino itself just seems to trump the MJO overall in December. I was mostly poking fun at the the possible re-emergence back into phase 4. If that were to happen with no break in the pac onslaught there will be a long line at the cliff. No panic on my end. We get stuck in plenty of crappy patterns in the majority of our winters so it's hardly unprecedented in these parts. If we are having these same conversations in 2 weeks then we know there is trouble in paradise. Looking at the MJO/warm ENSO/Dec composites...they all suck, phase 1 is marginal at best. Seems like nino's are destined to suck in Dec, based on MJO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 I was mostly poking fun at the the possible re-emergence back into phase 4. If that were to happen with no break in the pac onslaught there will be a long line at the cliff. No panic on my end. We get stuck in plenty of crappy patterns in the majority of our winters so it's hardly unprecedented in these parts. If we are having these same conversations in 2 weeks then we know there is trouble in paradise. I'd much rather have the cheeseburger..... Agree that we still here in two weeks things may need to b re-evaluated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Looking at the MJO/warm ENSO/Dec composites...they all suck, phase 1 is marginal at best. Seems like nino's are destined to suck in Dec, based on MJO.Easy solution. Root for COD. Honestly, I've never been sold that the mjo is a primary driver. It helps and hurts for sure but just looking at the phase and drawing hard conclusions is overlooking way too many other important factors. I find myself only looking at it when things suck. Like right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Easy solution. Root for COD. Honestly, I've never been sold that the mjo is a primary driver. It helps and hurts for sure but just looking at the phase and drawing hard conclusions is overlooking way too many other important factors. I find myself only looking at it when things suck. Like right now. Yep! I feel like we have been in December for 3 weeks already and it's only Dec 4th. I hate watching these ensembles....a few more hours for the weeklies :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 I was mostly poking fun at the the possible re-emergence back into phase 4. If that were to happen with no break in the pac onslaught there will be a long line at the cliff. No panic on my end. We get stuck in plenty of crappy patterns in the majority of our winters so it's hardly unprecedented in these parts. If we are having these same conversations in 2 weeks then we know there is trouble in paradise. Phase 6 isn't bad, but it doesn't seem to really be doing much in the forecasted pattern. Reemerging in Phase 4 would be no bueno. Kind of have to grasp at straws right now, but EPS/GEFS both *hint* at things transitioning very late in their runs, although 12z GEFS looks a little worse vs. 0z. Hard to find much. Pass the egg nog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 I wouldn't mind if December blows and we cash in with classic Nino snowstorms in JFM, just me though. I have a bet with my friend up in Fairbanks on who gets more snow through DJF....Fairbanks snow in DJF only averages to about 24" or so, so all we need is a few good storms... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 I wouldn't mind if December blows and we cash in with classic Nino snowstorms in JFM, just me though. I have a bet with my friend up in Fairbanks on who gets more snow through DJF....Fairbanks snow in DFJ only averages to about 24" or so, so all we need is a few good storms... Well 12z Euro is back to giving you guys a little something and back to a big one for the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 I wouldn't mind if December blows and we cash in with classic Nino snowstorms in JFM, just me though. I have a bet with my friend up in Fairbanks on who gets more snow through DJF....Fairbanks snow in DFJ only averages to about 24" or so, so all we need is a few good storms... That's all they get? I just looked it up and saw that their snowiest February was in 1966 with 43.1". BWI beat that in Feb. 2010 with around 50" if I remember correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 I wouldn't mind if December blows and we cash in with classic Nino snowstorms in JFM, just me though. I have a bet with my friend up in Fairbanks on who gets more snow through DJF....Fairbanks snow in DFJ only averages to about 24" or so, so all we need is a few good storms... December sucks in immediate dc metro.....not sure why people care that much....It sucked in 65,77, 79, 86, 04, 06, which were all passable or good nino winters...**** - last year DCA only got 1.5" in DEC...plus Dec isn't over yet...getting a storm toward the end of the month wouldn't surprise me..I don't take December very seriously in any winter..my 10 year average is 3.5" and that includes 12/18-19/2009.....If we are going to get blocking in the means, I'd hate to waste a portion of it on early December...December 2010's mega block yielded me 2"....If we get a bad pattern January 15-Feb 20th, then I'll be pissed...now..who gives a crap...my average high is 50..I'm just going to enjoy the crisp weather... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 December sucks in immediate dc metro.....not sure why people care that much....It sucked in 65,77, 79, 86, 04, 06, which were all passable or good nino winters...**** - last year DCA only got 1.5" in DEC...plus Dec isn't over yet...getting a storm toward the end of the month wouldn't surprise me..I don't take December very seriously in any winter..my 10 year average is 3.5" and that includes 12/18-19/2009.....If we are going to get blocking in the means, I'd hate to waste a portion of it on early December...December 2010's mega block yielded me 2"....If we get a bad pattern January 15-Feb 20th, then I'll be pissed...now..who gives a crap...my average high is 50..I'm just going to enjoy the crisp weather... Straight up sanity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 How cold is the rain next week on the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 That's all they get? I just looked it up and saw that their snowiest February was in 1966 with 43.1". BWI beat that in Feb. 2010 with around 50" if I remember correctly. Yeah, DJF tends to be not very snowy for them, I am hoping the El Nino pattern holds for Alaska and they get an even drier pattern in the Interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 How cold is the rain next week on the Euro? looks like some snow early Tues.. marginal. weird still tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Straight up sanity. I've been following weather in DC for too long to melt down over December...It isn't worth it.....It's all bonus snow...even 1/1 - 1/15 usually blows..it's disconcerting, but for those of us near the cities, we have like a 5-6 week window where we get 60-70% of our average snow...December is kind of like a fall month.....At least it isn't 2006/2011 when we could comfortably cancel December on 12/1....I think 12/20-12/31 is still up in the air... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 How cold is the rain next week on the Euro? Standard 34* stuff. Column would actually support snow but as Ian said, it's a very weird evolution. Not something I'm going to try and think about until it's actually happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Standard 34* stuff. Column would actually support snow but as Ian said, it's a very weird evolution. Not something I'm going to try and think about until it's actually happening I didn't look at last night's but it seems to have dropped the two lows. Now it's just one that goes SE then turns around and goes north with the second 500 wave. Pretty sure it won't happen as shown lol. Weekend looks like a cold rain tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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