BTRWx Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 super nino next winter? CFSv2 analysis? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Reading many of these comments makes it seem like we have no chance of seeing snow throughout the forecast period. Although that may be true, it's no guarantee. We all know how bad the operational models are at long lead times and though the ensembles tend to give the better overall patterns in the long range, they are by no average means perfect (pun intended). It's not like we're heading towards 60-70 highs like we have in past Decembers. On the bright side of long term guidance, the most recent euro ensemble run even has the 850's error bars never rising above 50 degrees in D.C. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&CONT=namk&MODELL=ecmwfts&MODELLTYP=2&VAR=t850&WMO=72400&ZOOM=0&RES=0&PERIOD=&PANEL=0&ARCHIV=0&BASE=201412030000%26HH%3D0 eta: I guess the worst case scenario would come close to upper 60's if the high end outlier verified. At least the low outlier is safely below freezing at 850. Here is a nice discussion I found from the old easternuswx forum about extrapolating 850mb to surface temps. http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/145709-converting-850mb-temps-to-surface-temps/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Too early to hit the panic button. It's only the first week of December. A lot can change. I know every week is valuable here, but all we need is one big storm... LOL @ Ji comparing this to 1997. Did you try flying to AK? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Looks like the Euro would give us some snow Sunday. Weird setup though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Looks like the Euro would give us some snow Sunday. Weird setup though. H5 closes off overhead between hr90-96 and then crawls up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 H5 closes off overhead between hr90-96 and then crawls up the coast. Another right behind it.. OTS tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Another right behind it.. OTS tho. Just a tad late but close though. Pretty nice spin as it goes underneath us. Very close to closing off in time. If we pull off a measurable event it will make the upcoming furnace much more bearable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Just a tad late but close though. Pretty nice spin as it goes underneath us. Very close to closing off in time. If we pull off a measurable event it will make the upcoming furnace much more bearable. Lots of below normal days on this run. Still not sold we'll ever truly torch long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Lots of below normal days on this run. Still not sold we'll ever truly torch long. The +pna shot has been well modeled. Ensembles will always look warmer than reality because of timing spread. And I agree, our area and se looks to be spared the brunt of the "potential" warmth beyond d10 but the NA height pattern is pretty hostile for any organized snow chances and may be more persistent than we want to see. GEFS and EC ens have been in close agreement for 3+ days. Sneaking in a fluke this month sure would be nice though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Looks like the Euro would give us some snow Sunday. Weird setup though. So you're saying we have a chance.... I'm going to ride the Phineas corollary and say these warmups will probably continue to be muted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 So you're saying we have a chance.... I'm going to ride the Phineas corollary and say these warmups will probably continue to be muted. Ind euro members last night showed limited support to both potential events but enough members to keep an eye out. The only way event 1 could work for us is a closed ULL to our south like the euro showed. We would need the dynamics to take care of a very marginal airmass. Sucks that these canadian hp's are so shallow. HP that strong in that location is almost always a cold column during Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Ind euro members last night showed limited support to both potential events but enough members to keep an eye out. The only way event 1 could work for us is a closed ULL to our south like the euro showed. We would need the dynamics to take care of a very marginal airmass. Sucks that these canadian hp's are so shallow. HP that strong in that location is almost always a cold column during Dec. So we pray for a storm to generate its own cold? I know this song and dance... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 From DT's page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Since 1979, the following Nov-Jan surface temperature composites were made based mainly on North Pacific currents. There is a slight bias toward Nino, but there are notable Nina events included. For the autumn, the SST analogs have been very good and continue to remain a strong tool. If that is the case.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 WSI Energy is kinda weenie on Twitter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Since 1979, the following Nov-Jan surface temperature composites were made based mainly on North Pacific currents. There is a slight bias toward Nino, but there are notable Nina events included. For the autumn, the SST analogs have been very good and continue to remain a strong tool. If that is the case.... Santa....you're 3 weeks early! You still Da' Man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 I've been riding this MJO forecast for the past week like its stolen, hoping it could shake up the progged pattern mid-month: The GFS has been rock-solid with this outlook, never wavering. Of course, the ECMWF has been just as consistent in showing the pulse dampening in the West Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 I've been riding this MJO forecast for the past week like its stolen, hoping it could shake up the progged pattern mid-month: image.jpg The GFS has been rock-solid with this outlook, never wavering. Of course, the ECMWF has been just as consistent in showing the pulse dampening in the West Pacific. Even if the wave gets to Phase 6/7, it *should* provide some pattern-altering forcing. Maybe it won't be enough, but it shouldn't hurt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 WSI Energy is kinda weenie on Twitter. Kind of what I figured. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Euro ens dropped a little cookie down the line. GOA trough starts retro-ing at the end. Better look to the isobars in the west and not as compressed in Canada. Might be an early sign that the pac flow may start getting cut off. Maybe later in the month goes back to +PNA. Still pretty meh over greenland and the pole but it looks like the progression similar to week 3 of the latest weeklies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Kind of what I figured. It's largely run by a PhD met I think though they share an awful lot of snow maps to day 10 etc. One of those things other mets complain about when "kids" do but then orgs get a free pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 WSI Energy is kinda weenie on Twitter. I was thinking more along the lines of a Troll, given their knowledge base. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Looks like the Euro would give us some snow Sunday. Weird setup though. Why worry about that when we can throw darts trying to figure out what the weather will be a month from now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 00z GFS shows a crappy el Nino +NAO pattern right until the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 There is not one good thing on any of the OP models, I mean look at this, looks a September pattern christ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 There is not one good thing on any of the OP models, I mean look at this, looks a September pattern christ How come it doesn't feel like September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Every year people ruminate it's not going to snow, and it usually snows every year except for a few barren ones back in the day. It's going to snow a lot this season. Past analogs are only so useful in an evolving climate. Prefer dry and warm, but we'll get blasted this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 There is not one good thing on any of the OP models, I mean look at this, looks a September pattern christ Did you post this in every sub forum? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shane M. Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 There is not one good thing on any of the OP models, I mean look at this, looks a September pattern christ Well first of all it may be more reliable to look at ensembles at that range, not one op run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 If you're willing to buy the Day 13-15 GEFS with a healthy dose of salt, it possibly shows something positive. The high heights that are present throughout the central and eastern CONUS and Canada around Day 10 shrink and move toward northern Hudson Bay and Baffin island. This is a nice positioning for a west-based -NAO. It's a long way off and wouldn't work alone to make us flip to a frigid wintry pattern, but it's about the only positive thing I can see right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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