Bob Chill Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 The problem with the pattern isn't torch vs seasonal. We're benefiting from shallow but cold HP's dropping out of Canada in fast/progressive flow. It's simply lemonade in a lemon snow/cold pattern. My issue is its going to get worse before getting better. The flood of above normal air in Canada next week hasn't been moving back in time. The question beyond that time is how quickly or slowly does it reshuffle? A warm Canada is a substantial problem if it has legs. It's one thing for zonal flow to cut off cold air. At least it's lurking. It's a whole different issue waiting not only for amplification but also cold to reload in our source region. Another thing I find a tad concerning is enough ensemble members are picking up on low heights around the pole to trend the ao + on the means. Certainly not a strong signal but not having a -ao on the means in Dec is not a good sign. Quite different than 02-03/09-10. While the slow start to December was well discussed and identified, I think it's safe to say the pattern evolution during the first half is a fair bit worse than anyone expected. There are zero obvious signs of a quick turn around anywhere down the line right now. Hopefully that changes in the next week or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 The problem with the pattern isn't torch vs seasonal. We're benefiting from shallow but cold HP's dropping out of Canada in fast/progressive flow. It's simply lemonade in a lemon snow/cold pattern. My issue is its going to get worse before getting better. The flood of above normal air in Canada next week hasn't been moving back in time. The question beyond that time is how quickly or slowly does it reshuffle? A warm Canada is a substantial problem if it has legs. It's one thing for zonal flow to cut off cold air. At least it's lurking. It's a whole different issue waiting not only for amplification but also cold to reload in our source region. Another thing I find a tad concerning is enough ensemble members are picking up on low heights around the pole to trend the ao + on the means. Certainly not a strong signal but not having a -ao on the means in Dec is not a good sign. Quite different than 02-03/09-10. While the slow start to December was well discussed and identified, I think it's safe to say the pattern evolution during the first half is a fair bit worse than anyone expected. There are zero obvious signs of a quick turn around anywhere down the line right now. Hopefully that changes in the next week or so. Agreed. I mentioned in another thread yesterday that its probably not realistic to expect the current pattern to break down and flip cold by mid month. That GOA low is one feature that seems content where it is. The AO forecast on the means still looks overall slightly positive into mid month. We know the deal with the NAO. As far as advertised torches in the guidance, well i guess that depends on ones interpretation of torch lol. Overall its not going to be cold with the fast, Pacific dominated flow...probably mostly seasonal overall, and there will be a few days here and there like we just had Sun/Mon, followed by a day like yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 The problem with the pattern isn't torch vs seasonal. We're benefiting from shallow but cold HP's dropping out of Canada in fast/progressive flow. It's simply lemonade in a lemon snow/cold pattern. My issue is its going to get worse before getting better. The flood of above normal air in Canada next week hasn't been moving back in time. The question beyond that time is how quickly or slowly does it reshuffle? A warm Canada is a substantial problem if it has legs. It's one thing for zonal flow to cut off cold air. At least it's lurking. It's a whole different issue waiting not only for amplification but also cold to reload in our source region. Another thing I find a tad concerning is enough ensemble members are picking up on low heights around the pole to trend the ao + on the means. Certainly not a strong signal but not having a -ao on the means in Dec is not a good sign. Quite different than 02-03/09-10. While the slow start to December was well discussed and identified, I think it's safe to say the pattern evolution during the first half is a fair bit worse than anyone expected. There are zero obvious signs of a quick turn around anywhere down the line right now. Hopefully that changes in the next week or so. I'm thinking on filing a class action lawsuit against Cowen for false advertising of a -AO, but I have no class so I'll sit tight for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 I'm thinking on filing a class action lawsuit against Cowen for false advertising of a -AO, but I have no class so I'll sit tight for now Did you read the CWG interview of Cohen? Very interesting...and I was impressed with the guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Did you read the CWG interview of Cohen? Very interesting...and I was impressed with the guy. nope, I just know that his winter prediction last year based on the Eurasian snow cover failed, so I'll give him one more chance in my weenie mind to decide if I should ever listen to him again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 The problem with the pattern isn't torch vs seasonal. We're benefiting from shallow but cold HP's dropping out of Canada in fast/progressive flow. It's simply lemonade in a lemon snow/cold pattern. My issue is its going to get worse before getting better. The flood of above normal air in Canada next week hasn't been moving back in time. The question beyond that time is how quickly or slowly does it reshuffle? A warm Canada is a substantial problem if it has legs. It's one thing for zonal flow to cut off cold air. At least it's lurking. It's a whole different issue waiting not only for amplification but also cold to reload in our source region. Another thing I find a tad concerning is enough ensemble members are picking up on low heights around the pole to trend the ao + on the means. Certainly not a strong signal but not having a -ao on the means in Dec is not a good sign. Quite different than 02-03/09-10. While the slow start to December was well discussed and identified, I think it's safe to say the pattern evolution during the first half is a fair bit worse than anyone expected. There are zero obvious signs of a quick turn around anywhere down the line right now. Hopefully that changes in the next week or so. You created a weenie panic in the SE forum, LOL. The good news is since this craptastic pattern will take a while to breakdown that when we finally get the Jan/Feb Nino/PDO+ pattern it will take a while to breakdown too. Going to be a lot of tight spinchters the next couple of weeks hoping the weeklies show us the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 nope, I just know that his winter prediction last year based on the Eurasian snow cover failed, so I'll give him one more chance in my weenie mind to decide if I should ever listen to him again Read it lol. Obviously there is more than just the snow cover signal that goes into it. He explains the initial "fail" prediction for last winter. And even us weenies know last winter was fluky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 You created a weenie panic in the SE forum, LOL. The good news is since this craptastic pattern will take a while to breakdown that when we finally get the Jan/Feb Nino/PDO+ pattern it will take a while to breakdown too. Going to be a lot of tight spinchters the next couple of weeks hoping the weeklies show us the way. lol- I stick to 2-3 week leads and not 2-3 months. I'm sure if things flip to cold/blocky then this spell we're in now will be long forgotten. I'm personally a little surprised on how much the wrong direction things seem to be progressing. Not a fan of it. Like I said in my post, if we're suffering from just being cut off from cold that's still on our side of the planet then fine. But that's not where things are headed. I'm sure you've looked at the 850 anoms as well but for those who haven't...here's the gefs and the euro looks just like it. I know a warm middle of the country and central canada is a typical nino look but these anomalies are no joke. If things verify as being depicted then it will take some work to get things right. On the bright side, at least last nights euro ens run is showing higher heights building near the pole. But still a pac onslaught. i would prefer to see the pac jet get cutoff before anything else. We've had months with big -AOs get offset by the pac just punishing us in the past. Not saying that's where we are going at all but imo the most important thing we need to see is the goa low retrograde and shut off the flood. I'd gladly take that way before worrying about the ao/nao. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 lol- I stick to 2-3 week leads and not 2-3 months. I'm sure if things flip to cold/blocky then this spell we're in now will be long forgotten. I'm personally a little surprised on how much the wrong direction things seem to be progressing. Not a fan of it. Like I said in my post, if we're suffering from just being cut off from cold that's still on our side of the planet then fine. But that's not where things are headed. I'm sure you've looked at the 850 anoms as well but for those who haven't...here's the gefs and the euro looks just like it. [img= I know a warm middle of the country and central canada is a typical nino look but these anomalies are no joke. If things verify as being depicted then it will take some work to get things right. On the bright side, at least last nights euro ens run is showing higher heights building near the pole. But still a pac onslaught. i would prefer to see the pac jet get cutoff before anything else. We've had months with big -AOs get offset by the pac just punishing us in the past. Not saying that's where we are going at all but imo the most important thing we need to see is the goa low retrograde and shut off the flood. I'd gladly take that way before worrying about the ao/nao. It does suck waking up looking at the ensembles and only see them improve by a hair. Hopefully by next week we can some tangible improvements. JB has abandoned his 76/77 dreams and now is clutching on to 02/03. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 lol- I stick to 2-3 week leads and not 2-3 months. I'm sure if things flip to cold/blocky then this spell we're in now will be long forgotten. I'm personally a little surprised on how much the wrong direction things seem to be progressing. Not a fan of it. Like I said in my post, if we're suffering from just being cut off from cold that's still on our side of the planet then fine. But that's not where things are headed. I'm sure you've looked at the 850 anoms as well but for those who haven't...here's the gefs and the euro looks just like it. gefs850.JPG I know a warm middle of the country and central canada is a typical nino look but these anomalies are no joke. If things verify as being depicted then it will take some work to get things right. On the bright side, at least last nights euro ens run is showing higher heights building near the pole. But still a pac onslaught. i would prefer to see the pac jet get cutoff before anything else. We've had months with big -AOs get offset by the pac just punishing us in the past. Not saying that's where we are going at all but imo the most important thing we need to see is the goa low retrograde and shut off the flood. I'd gladly take that way before worrying about the ao/nao. bottom line, it sure would suck if the CFS2 ended up being right for DEC, but what you're showing certainly suggests that to be the case and let's not even think about beyond DEC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 It does suck waking up looking at the ensembles and only see them improve by a hair. Hopefully by next week we can some tangible improvements. JB has abandoned his 76/77 dreams and now is clutching on to 02/03. CPC analogs are loaded up with 94 & 06 right now. ETA: I would be surprised with a DJF progression of 94/06 though. Not the best comparisons for multiple reasons. Dec has the potential to be similar though from how things look right now. I hate chasing long lead pattern changes. We didn't have to do that at all last year. It was always inside of 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 CPC analogs are loaded up with 94 & 06 right now. we all knew we couldn't muster 2 years in a row of AN snow/BN temps, so we live with it and hope for the fluke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 CPC analogs are loaded up with 94 & 06 right now. ETA: I would be surprised with a DJF progression of 94/06 though. Not the best comparisons for multiple reasons. Dec has the potential to be similar though from how things look right now. I hate chasing long lead pattern changes. We didn't have to do that at all last year. It was always inside of 2 weeks. I posted on that this morning too, but like seeing 87. 86/87 was strong PDO+ too, in fact 86 was PDO+ for entire year like 2014 will be. Lots of nino's in the analogs. Cohen's -AO will pull through, if it doesn't that could really diminish that theory. That would be back to back years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 I posted on that this morning too, but like seeing 87. 86/87 was strong PDO+ too, in fact 86 was PDO+ for entire year like 2014 will be. Lots of nino's in the analogs. Cohen's -AO will pull through, if it doesn't that could really diminish that theory. That would be back to back years. Luckily there are big differences at the high latitudes in both 94 and 06. Very low heights stretching from ak to the pole. Nothing like what we are seeing now on guidance. Those features have staying power for sure. The big similarities are only mid latitude heights over the npac and conus. Those can shift around much easier than big vorts higher up. If our pattern did evolve into something similar, it would be a colossal SAI bust. My money is on little chance of going that direction. So we just sit on our hands for now and watch the cards hit the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Bob, you just need to chill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 we have our moderate Nino. Lets go already http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/nino34Mon.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Heh, the truth hurts. I'll chill as soon as Canada does and the goa trough moves west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 moderate el nino with Super 1997 Nino results. Time to pull the plug? I couldnt even drive or fly anywhere in the country to see snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 at least january looks better. oregon anybody? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 the entire 7 oceans are on fire. Hard not to have a Nino Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 someone find me a good map! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Read it lol. Obviously there is more than just the snow cover signal that goes into it. He explains the initial "fail" prediction for last winter. And even us weenies know last winter was fluky. haha. yeah and to the extent that any of these signals can actually predict long term winter temperatures at all, their added value is very low, like the house's advantage at craps. does the house have an advantage? sure. can i overcome their small advantage and go on an stratospheric heater, winning so much snow that I dance around like a maniac, drawing the ire of the the casino staff? sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 I posted on that this morning too, but like seeing 87. 86/87 was strong PDO+ too, in fact 86 was PDO+ for entire year like 2014 will be. Lots of nino's in the analogs. Cohen's -AO will pull through, if it doesn't that could really diminish that theory. That would be back to back years. I (along with anyone south to NC boarder) would be happy with a 86-87 repeat. Many averaged 60+ that winter down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 wow. 1/3 of our winter looks to be gone before it even began. JFM. March will rock. Nino winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 JFM. March will rock. Nino winter. That would be the third consecutive "good" March out here. I don't care what the ENSO and PAC states are, I'm definitely betting against that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 That would be the third consecutive "good" March out here. I don't care what the ENSO and PAC states are, I'm definitely betting against that. I don't want a good March because there is no such thing as one around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 That would be the third consecutive "good" March out here. I don't care what the ENSO and PAC states are, I'm definitely betting against that. Probably. But we always seem to expect too much from Dec. We are not entering our climo wheelhouse for cold and snow really until the end of the month. Obviously what we are seeing in the pattern currently and whats being advertised looks pretty crappy. Somewhat expected though for at least the first half of the month. At this point just have to be patient and hope these undesirable anomalous features dont get so entrenched that they screw up Jan and Feb. The AO will probably slowly trend negative then hopefully in early Jan we get PV destruction via SSW and it tanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Handy1 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 JFM. March will rock. Nino winter. Doesn't Spring start early in Nino years? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Reading many of these comments makes it seem like we have no chance of seeing snow throughout the forecast period. Although that may be true, it's no guarantee. We all know how bad the operational models are at long lead times and though the ensembles tend to give the better overall patterns in the long range, they are by no average means perfect (pun intended). It's not like we're heading towards 60-70 highs like we have in past Decembers. On the bright side of long term guidance, the most recent euro ensemble run even has the 850's error bars never rising above 50 degrees in D.C. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&CONT=namk&MODELL=ecmwfts&MODELLTYP=2&VAR=t850&WMO=72400&ZOOM=0&RES=0&PERIOD=&PANEL=0&ARCHIV=0&BASE=201412030000%26HH%3D0 eta: I guess the worst case scenario would come close to upper 60's if the high end outlier verified. At least the low outlier is safely below freezing at 850. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 we have our moderate Nino. Lets go already http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/nino34Mon.gif super nino next winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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