EasternUSWX Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Figures now para Gfs has the storm Monday after euro bailed lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Euro ens had a really nice look over the pole late in the run. Gefs good too but not as pronounced. I'm cautiously optimistic that real winter is going to move in and hang out for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Figures now para Gfs has the storm Monday after euro bailed lol Sharp cutoff with the snow on that one. Good storm verbatim for those that are on the correct side. Looks like a general 3-6" north of Baltimore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Seems like every other run either gives us snow or takes it away. Being on the southern edge offers opportunities for snow but also can disappoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 24, 2014 Author Share Posted December 24, 2014 Figures now para Gfs has the storm Monday after euro bailed lol And looks really interesting for next Wed/Thur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 And looks really interesting for next Wed/Thur Pretty big hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Where the heck is JI? The para just gave a solid digital hit of snow. He should be 70% happy right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Where the heck is JI? The para just gave a solid digital hit of snow. He should be 70% happy right now. He wasn't 70% happy in 2009/2010. Might make him 20% happy if it lasted three more runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Yeah, para is pretty good...but it'll be gone 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Yeah, para is pretty good...but it'll be gone 0z Probably right, but it will be back at 06Z and gone again 1t 12Z if the model trends hold on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Wes, did you see what the euro and Canadian ensembles and to a lesser extent the gefs are showing over the pole down the line? Quite a strong height anomaly signal on the euro ens for such a long lead. I'm starting to get my hopes up for the overall prospects of the remaining 2/3rds of met winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Wes, did you see what the euro and Canadian ensembles and to a lesser extent the gefs are showing over the pole down the line? Quite a strong height anomaly signal on the euro ens for such a long lead. I'm starting to get my hopes up for the overall prospects of the remaining 2/3rds of met winter. I did, looks better on the GEFS than the Euro which is showing a negative AO but a positive NAO because of the high heights over the Azores and the Atlantic south of southern Greenland. It still would put the us in above normal temps with a storm track probably being to our north though the high heights in AK might mitigate that. My outlook was very conservative going forward past around the 3rd. I think slightly above normal is more likely than below but not with any confidence. However, I think we might be somewhat like last year with cold air getting to us giving us overruning chances at times even even after the 3rd even if the NAO stays positive. if it godes negative then we might really cash in if we can get a southern storm track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Thanks Wes. What I found most interesting were the multi run changes on the euro ens. It's a building signal moving closer in time. Still way out there but never a bad thing to see promising changes moving in that direction vs the other way aroun. I have a hunch I can't get rid of that we are going to get a stable -ao sooner than we think. And the nao will lag but follow suit. Could be the good mood I'm. Or the beer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 24, 2014 Author Share Posted December 24, 2014 Yeah, para is pretty good...but it'll be gone 0z Nope. It will be joined by the Euro, UK, and Canadian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 24, 2014 Author Share Posted December 24, 2014 The para and it's stormier solution for Monday has a lot of support from the ens members. The storm later in the week has little support. Monday looks like rain on those that support the para. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 The Para is absolutely beautiful for the Jan. 1st/2nd storm. MD/PA line is annihilated. 10-12" with temps afterwards around 0F on the 3rd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 The para and it's stormier solution for Monday has a lot of support from the ens members. The storm later in the week has little support. Monday looks like rain on those that support the para. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 25, 2014 Author Share Posted December 25, 2014 Haha those were the days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 WJLA 7 shows 50% of snow on its 7 day graphic online for Monday. I'm all in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 GGEM is stone cold crushing for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 My god the Canadian. Of course the xbox nor the para give us much hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 maybe we get one score with the CAN for the year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 GGEM big hit, GFS lost, Para GFS close call, UKMET looks better (from what I heard)...X-mas magic as we await the EURO??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 GGEM and EURO showing a 594 ridge over the Bahamas day 10, thats gotta be some kind of record. I think I liked the old pattern better, can we please just have that back? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Horrible disaster on euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 GGEM and EURO showing a 594 ridge over the Bahamas day 10, thats gotta be some kind of record. I think I liked the old pattern better, can we please just have that back? Hope you asked for shorts and swimsuits for Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Horrible disaster on euro Yeah, this is going to be a tough tracking season. Very hard for us to get excited in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Was getting all excited after the GGEM and then boom, the EURO and 6z GFS make me puke....AHHHHH lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Was getting all excited after the GGEM and then boom, the EURO and 6z GFS make me puke....AHHHHH lol Merry Christmas to all! wrt to the models, the only thing I see that's encouraging is the 10 day Canadian now has us below normal over the next 10 days.....and considering how warm we start, that's a good sign http://weather.gc.ca/data/ensemble/images/tenday.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 So glad I got a boat for Christmas !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.