Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,588
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

December Med/Long Range Disco


WinterWxLuvr

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 2k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Wes, did you see what the euro and Canadian ensembles and to a lesser extent the gefs are showing over the pole down the line? Quite a strong height anomaly signal on the euro ens for such a long lead. I'm starting to get my hopes up for the overall prospects of the remaining 2/3rds of met winter.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wes, did you see what the euro and Canadian ensembles and to a lesser extent the gefs are showing over the pole down the line? Quite a strong height anomaly signal on the euro ens for such a long lead. I'm starting to get my hopes up for the overall prospects of the remaining 2/3rds of met winter.

I did, looks better on the GEFS than the Euro which is showing a negative AO but a positive NAO because of the high heights over the Azores and the Atlantic south of southern Greenland.  It still would put the us in above normal temps with a storm track probably being to our north though the high heights in AK might mitigate that.  My outlook was very conservative going forward past around the 3rd.   I think slightly above normal is more likely than below but not with any confidence.  However, I think we might be somewhat like last year with cold air getting to us giving us overruning chances at times even even after the 3rd even if the NAO stays positive.  if it godes negative then we might really cash in if we can get a southern storm track. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Thanks Wes. What I found most interesting were the multi run changes on the euro ens. It's a building signal moving closer in time. Still way out there but never a bad thing to see promising changes moving in that direction vs the other way aroun. I have a hunch I can't get rid of that we are going to get a stable -ao sooner than we think. And the nao will lag but follow suit. Could be the good mood I'm. Or the beer.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Was getting all excited after the GGEM and then boom, the EURO and 6z GFS make me puke....AHHHHH lol

Merry Christmas to all!

wrt to the models, the only thing I see that's encouraging is the 10 day Canadian now has us below normal over the next 10 days.....and considering how warm we start, that's a good sign

http://weather.gc.ca/data/ensemble/images/tenday.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...