EasternUSWX Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Rollin the dice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Euro back south. Give NW burbs a ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Some second storms spins right up after that and more snow comes down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Euro is close call for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 The Euro ensemble mean looks more suppressed then the op, with fairly cold 850s. Edit: the tropical tidbits EPS product is the mean, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 24, 2014 Author Share Posted December 24, 2014 No Euro low in Pittsburgh? Shocker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 The Euro ensemble mean looks more suppressed then the op, with fairly cold 850s. Edit: the tropical tidbits EPS product is the mean, right? Yes. Euro is quite a bit slower with the storm as well it seems. GFS can't figure out which piece of energy to key on and just has several days of cold drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Para gfs gives ft hood 20" of snow and us none over next 10. Congrats Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Yes. Euro is quite a bit slower with the storm as well it seems. GFS can't figure out which piece of energy to key on and just has several days of cold drizzle. So which model do you think has it right? I mean we are not that far out from showtime Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 So which model do you think has it right? I mean we are not that far out from showtime None of them have it right today. Maybe tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 So which model do you think has it right? I mean we are not that far out from showtime We're still 6 days away according to the Euro! I would generally favor a weaker solution given the fast flow. That said, we want the northern stream vort that passes by a couple days before to be stronger so it can pull the cold front through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 So which model do you think has it right? I mean we are not that far out from showtime We're too far out. Flow zips along with multiple shortwaves and an unresolved gradient/boundary in the east. Each potential threat is 3-4 day lead max and even then the nuances will cause havoc. The first event looks like multiple waves. My wag is we get rain first no matter what but anything on the heels stands a chance. Euro ensembles are becoming quite supportive of a decent event in the mix over the next 2 weeks. Possibly even more than one. Time to enjoy the holiday and pass time. It's going to madness for a while coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 We're still 6 days away according to the Euro! I would generally favor a weaker solution given the fast flow. That said, we want the northern stream vort that passes by a couple days before to be stronger so it can pull the cold front through.I know. Just getting anxious. I accidentally saw the 5 day forecast on tv and it made me angry...not because I believed it but because it had the word "mild". Hate that word Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 24, 2014 Author Share Posted December 24, 2014 I know. Just getting anxious. I accidentally saw the 5 day forecast on tv and it made me angry...not because I believed it but because it had the word "mild". Hate that word Looking more likely that the cold air struggles to get in. I guess all the energy hanging back in the west is helping to keep heights high in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 it's official, CFS2 capitulates to a colder than normal JAN-MAR http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/usT2mSeaInd1.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/htmls/usT2me3Mon.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 it's official, CFS2 capitulates to a colder than normal JAN-MAR http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/usT2mSeaInd1.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/htmls/usT2me3Mon.html it's a christmas miracle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Yes. Euro is quite a bit slower with the storm as well it seems. GFS can't figure out which piece of energy to key on and just has several days of cold drizzle. Go with persistence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 GFS is warm for the 28/29 event. What I would give for a even a little HP to our north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 GFS is warm for the 28/29 event. What I would give for a even a little HP to our north. What event? Some drizzle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 It's taking an awfully long time to put together the pieces for an NYD event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 GFS parallel significantly wetter with the 12/29 event and colder too, although it has most of the precip on the warm side of the rain/snow line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Hmmm. Atari GFS holds the energy back so long in the SW that the pieces that break off just slide off the coast. Still something bigger building by hr 180, but it seems a bit odd... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Atari at 180 and Xbox at 156 look very similar, apart from the placement of the NW hp. I think that's a good thing for the xbox, that it gets things together sooner... 156 xbox: 180 atari Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Yeah... Atari keeps pulling pieces off the Mexico low and sending them out to sea below a midatlantic high all the way into the 2nd week of Jan... Xbox keep s*** together, which results in this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 The pattern has promise. I don't care what details the models show at all right now. They will be a mess until inside 72 hours in this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 looks like para has a big snowstorm but tropical tidbits skips the panels i care most about http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfsp®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2014122412&fh=186&xpos=0&ypos=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 looks like para has a big snowstorm but tropical tidbits skips the panels i care most about http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfsp®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2014122412&fh=186&xpos=0&ypos=0 192 will come in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Coastal hugger on para gfs. 996 over s jersey at hour 198. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Coastal hugger on para gfs. 996 over s jersey at hour 198. It's all rain except some snow showers on the back end at hr 204. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 ya its never snowing again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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