Heisy Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Check out 165 hours on the GFS & the energy dumping into the E. US.....haven't seen that in a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Para GFS is totally dif than old GFS. It has a weak frontal passage @ 138 hours but you can tell it is gearing up to bring a storm out a few days later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 23, 2014 Author Share Posted December 23, 2014 Para now less amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 unstoppable My guess is it will be colder than December. And probably snowier. edit: it can't really be less snowy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 My guess is it will be colder than December. And probably snowier. edit: it can't really be less snowy. No trace = less snowy Anyway, back on topic. It looks like a compromise between the 12z and 18z GFS would be ideal for our area. But that's how it always is... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Right or wrong, the gfs is the best high latitude look we've seen in quite a while. Big -epo and even a closed 546dm ridge over greenland above the PV for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 I'm forecasting a January. Ngm on board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Not a bad original GFS run. Here's my analysis: Looks like the 29th event is a 40N storm (although verbatim mapgirl gets a few inches). The 31st storm didn't really change much. All snow with a good sfc. Hr 150 all the way to 252 is below freezing at the sfc. Then there's a "warm"-up on the 3rd/4th (upper 30s) but then the Arctic Annihilator comes roaring back and we're frigid hr 288-onward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 I think Don S pissed off the ao with his post this morning. I have a hunch we're on fhe verge of real blocking setting up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 I think Don S pissed off the ao with his post this morning. I have a hunch we're on fhe verge of real blocking setting up. good of him to take one for the team. #longrangefantasygfsftwandstuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 good of him to take one for the team. #longrangefantasygfsftwandstuff Gfs? It's all about the strat man. Splitty splittyJokes aside, euro ens and gefs are hinting at some interesting changes. Higher heights directly over the pole and the pv firmly planted near hudson through the ends of the runs. Might be a numeric +ao but the height patterns are looking pretty good for cold air dumps. It wouldnt take much and ops are hinting at it as well. I could envision the epo/scand ridge connection like we saw last year. Looks like we get cold before we get warm again at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Meanwhile on Twitter HM is preaching the opposite of Don. What does HM go by on twitter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 What does HM go by on twitter? I think this is HM- https://twitter.com/antmasiello Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 I think this is HM- https://twitter.com/antmasiello So he no longer post here, I haven't seen anything from HM for a while now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 6 days out from the 29th storm. Need to wait another 2 days for a good clue on the eventual outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 18z gefs continues the improved look and continues the trend of backing down the +ao. Reload of cold d14-16. Ridge bridge sets up at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 6 days out from the 29th storm. Need to wait another 2 days for a good clue on the eventual outcome. West track and rain. Like Ji said the models never back down from a rain solution. He is wise. 0z will be train wreck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 18z gefs continues the improved look and continues the trend of backing down the +ao. Reload of cold d14-16. Ridge bridge sets up at the end. Did you see this? This splits start happening at 200-240'ish. The difference this run is that it continues the warming/splitting process towards the end of the run, instead of the PV rebounding. Pretty legit signal if it holds. (SSW) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 24, 2014 Author Share Posted December 24, 2014 West track and rain. Like Ji said the models never back down from a rain solution. He is wise. 0z will be train wreck. Doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Well GFS less amped...but cold air having trouble getting in here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 24, 2014 Author Share Posted December 24, 2014 Big changes on gfs at 500. Haven't looked at the surface but I don't see how a low can go west of us in that setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Big changes on gfs at 500. Haven't looked at the surface but I don't see how a low can go west of us in that setup. Southern slider...and we still are on the warm side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Well GFS less amped...but cold air having trouble getting in here That's pretty hard to believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 NYD still looking possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Well, I guess I'll next goal is NYD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 GGEM crushes NW burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Low goes south like gfs but stronger and more cold air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 What hours ?...any maps 138-150 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 LR GGEM is like, what SE ridge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Para gfs gives ft hood 20" of snow and us none over next 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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