Ji Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Euro has us near 60 on Dec 30. the period when JB and all promised us snowy and cold in the east after christmas warmth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 We are not going to know anything until we know how strong that vort really is. The Euro run is disappointing after all of the other guidance today though. Didn't Atari do better with the 19-21st threat that never happened? The GEFS members are the way to go right now just my 2 cents Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Didn't Atari do better with the 19-21st threat that never happened? The GEFS members are the way to go right now just my 2 cents It did. I went back to my files and the regualr GFS pretty consistently showed a strung out mess (after it moved from the cutter). It probably "caught on" about 3-4 runs before the para. However, the para never really did look Euro-like, so I wouldn't say it failed quite to the same degree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 How does the snowfall look for Pittsburgh on the 12z euro. Im just wondering to compare to 0z. None. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 so far this season, every bit of Euro guidance that was good for us Day5 and later was wrong so it probably isn't a bad thing until that changes Good points. Guidance had been so erratic the past few days. I thought maybe we were going to lock on to something for once. But I guess not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Pretty good Euro run. Gives me .01 of snow through 10 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Pretty good Euro run. Gives me .01 of snow through 10 days Better than showing 20" and getting 0". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Pretty good Euro run. Gives me .01 of snow through 10 days Merry Christmas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 23, 2014 Author Share Posted December 23, 2014 The Euro and the GFS are very different as soon as 72 hours at h5. It won't be long before we know which is more likely correct. BTW, it holds the 500 trough much further west than does the gfs. Both are about the same with heights and depth of the trough but nowhere close on position Canadian more in line with Euro and NAM in line with gfs on the same feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Better than showing 20" and getting 0". not really. 70% of my snow excitement is digital Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 The Euro and the GFS are very different as soon as 72 hours at h5. It won't be long before we know which is more likely correct. BTW, it holds the 500 trough much further west than does the gfs. Both are about the same with heights and depth of the trough but nowhere close on position maybe its doing its usual holding back to much energy in the SW thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 not really. 70% of my snow excitement is digital At least modeled snow is easy to shovel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 23, 2014 Author Share Posted December 23, 2014 maybe its doing its usual holding back to much energy in the SW thing I thought the same thing. With such a critical player so close in time, we won't have to wait long to find out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 At least modeled snow is easy to shovel. i really truly get more excited seeing snow on a map(the blues/reds,etc) than on the grass. A good model run is stunning to look at:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 i really truly get more excited seeing snow on a map(the blues/reds,etc) than on the grass. A good model run is stunning to look at:) I'm getting pretty tired of seeing it and setting a hot date only to be stood up. Give me a legit thread inside of 3 days and the only disco is about how much for everyone's yard. That's the only real fun in this game to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Euro ens show pretty strong support of a nw track on the 28-30th storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Euro ens show pretty strong support of a nw track on the 28-30th storm. Bummer. It does follow the Op though, dropping the PV into Hudson Bay, conus wide trough day 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 23, 2014 Author Share Posted December 23, 2014 Euro ens show pretty strong support of a nw track on the 28-30th storm. It supported the storm last weekend too....until it didn't. I'm playing that card as long as I can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Bummer. It does follow the Op though, dropping the PV into Hudson Bay, conus wide trough day 8. I was never really enthused with the first wave. Things typically don't work out like that. We need the cold first more often than not. Cold chasing precip rarely works out in these parts. We're more of a snow to rain area if anything. I assume similar down your way. Still plenty of time though. If things trend with better cold air pushing in and/or a more e-w oriented boundary with cold over top maybe but for now I'll keep expectations low and hope for a surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 It supported the storm last weekend too....until it didn't. I'm playing that card as long as I can. Good point. And putting aside DT's rather bizzare analogy attempting to illustrate why the GFS was wrong, it had a suppressed and weak low and trended to nothingness, and the Euro went from wound up inland for many runs, to suppressed and weak, to nothing. And we had a dry and cold weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Euro ens show pretty strong support of a nw track on the 28-30th storm. they also showed strong support for the snowstorm we never got this past weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Inside 3 days..anything else is poppycock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 they also showed strong support for the snowstorm we never got this past weekend I was only quoting verbatim. I've lost a good bit of confidence in the euro lately. It can't handle fast progressive flow. The second it hangs something back that doesn't happen the run is down the tubes. I'm wondering if the ensembles are similar in some ways. GEFS has been all over this upcoming pattern change. The euro ens have just about dropped the -pna/trough over 4 corners. GEFS never had it. Tough time for models and snow weenies. We're going to score something in the next 2 weeks. Looks pretty ripe to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 It's best for models to show us getting screwed Yeah that's right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 great. 10 days away for the 10th straight day! We are not to the point yet of drawing the line on "7-10 days away" but if we do not have any cold/snow intrusion by 1/5/15 then the die will be cast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 It's best for models to show us getting screwed Yeah that's right Click d10. It's coming http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/yecmwf_strat.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 23, 2014 Author Share Posted December 23, 2014 Early indicators would have this gfs more amped...we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 GFS coming around to the EURO here....def not as amped, but H5 looks much more similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Click d10. It's coming http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/yecmwf_strat.php January is definitely on its way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 January is definitely on its way. unstoppable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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