ers-wxman1 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 The euro is having big problems this season. It is not what it was last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Congrats Erie! nice to see us cash in on the cold and snowy post christmas pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 23, 2014 Author Share Posted December 23, 2014 1000mb into Pittsburgh. Never happen. At a quick glance I can't find a gfs member that does that, and we all know the recent pattern of these amped up systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 23, 2014 Author Share Posted December 23, 2014 The euro is having big problems this season. It is not what it was last year It had issues last year too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Good there was a day when we wanted the Euro to be south at 5+ days......now, north seems to be better since it winds up everything like a spinning top Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 stone cold Pittsburgh cutter Pretty sure that's not favorable for us. Like I said earlier, the old GFS is up to it's usually trick of being too much into suppression. Definitely favor the para/euro solution...obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 how is baked Alaska a Nina thing? Cold Canada and southern US ridging is a Nina thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 23, 2014 Author Share Posted December 23, 2014 Pretty sure that's not favorable for us. Like I said earlier, the old GFS is up to it's usually trick of being too much into suppression. Definitely favor the para/euro solution...obviously. Why? Which one has been solid? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Cold Canada and southern US ridging is a Nina thing. i took baked Alaska as a hot alaska which is usually good for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Why? Which one has been solid? None has been solid, but at least the Euro has support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 i took baked Alaska as a hot alaska which is usually good for us It is and it's the pattern we had last year. -EPO dominated. But the +AO/+NAO/SE ridging combo is pretty Ninaish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Pretty sure that's not favorable for us. Like I said earlier, the old GFS is up to it's usually trick of being too much into suppression. Definitely favor the para/euro solution...obviously. It might be, but this pattern does not favor amplification. Euro over-amps and the GFS suppresses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 It is and it's the pattern we had last year. -EPO dominated. But the +AO/+NAO/SE ridging combo is pretty Ninaish. i dont remember us having SE ridging last year. the trough was in the east the entire winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 None has been solid, but at least the Euro has support. euro control will probably say no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 i dont remember us having SE ridging last year. the trough was in the east the entire winter We didn't last year. Last year was -EPO dominated. But we also had a +NAO last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 i dont remember us having SE ridging last year. the trough was in the east the entire winter It was far enough east that it actually helped us to some extent... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 None has been solid, but at least the Euro has support. Euro is only wrong when it shows us snow like last week. When it shows cutter/rain, its like 100% accurate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Cool, the big arctic dump has highs colder in New Orleans than DC...love the SE ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Cool, the big arctic dump has highs colder in New Orleans than DC...love the SE ridge Could be good for some over running maybe..trying to find a shred of good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Well with the para and euro overamping this year and gfs suppressing everything, I'd probably go with a blend which probably brings a weak low through central VA and usual favored places get a decent snow 2-5" with white rain or rain changing to snow in the 95 corridor from DC to Baltimore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Could be good for some over running maybe..trying to find a shred of good overrunning is good for a significant storm around here and might be more common than other setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 The pattern toward the end of the run isn't bad...+PNA, Big broad trough....the se ridge is squashed..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Overall good euro run. PV dropping south over hudson d9. ETA: ^what matt just said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 How does the snowfall look for Pittsburgh on the 12z euro. Im just wondering to compare to 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 The EURO is still pretty cold. Not as cold as the 12z GFS, but that is to be expected. I personally think it runs a bit warm (sfc) in the medium/LR. Highs at or below freezing for the area on the 31st, with mid-20s to around 30F for highs on Jan. 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 The Euro sure is cold around new years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 We are not going to know anything until we know how strong that vort really is. The Euro run is disappointing after all of the other guidance today though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 The pattern toward the end of the run isn't bad...+PNA, Big broad trough....the se ridge is squashed..... great. 10 days away for the 10th straight day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 I like precip...at this point I like amped better than suppressed. Not me, I'd rather be consistently on the cold side of the storm(s) if we are going to play the thread the needle game. The euro is having big problems this season. It is not what it was last year It had issues last year too. Last change was 19 November of last year. While there was a vertical resolution change, it did not change (increase) resolution in the troposphere, it just added a bunch of levels (~30, I think) in the stratosphere from 5 hPa to 0.01 hPa. the other part of the upgrade was to use a new ocean model in their atmosphere / ocean coupling. Hard to see either of these leading to more consistently wound up systems. Would be interesting to dig into the model physics to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 We are not going to know anything until we know how strong that vort really is. The Euro run is disappointing after all of the other guidance today though. so far this season, every bit of Euro guidance that was good for us Day5 and later was wrong so it probably isn't a bad thing until that changes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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