Bob Chill Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Looks like we're locking into a period of fast flow, below normal temps, and active southern stream connection. And it starts inside of a week. I'm ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Looks like we're locking into a period of fast flow, below normal temps, and active southern stream connection. And it starts inside of a week. I'm ready. its a good thing you and Donald S cancelled winter:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 its a good thing you and Donald S cancelled winter:) i never cancelled winter. Well, at least not until the 5th or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Para hates us on the 29th deal. Probably right...we know the old GFS is usually fond of suppression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Atari is ice cold diamond dust snow for NYD. Frigid run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 23, 2014 Author Share Posted December 23, 2014 Just blend the two GPS solutions for Monday, toss the Euro if it doesn't favor us. It's what I plan to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 XBOX and Commodore couldn't be further apart in the mid and long range. Hard to believe they are even related. Not sure I trust the XBOX holding a low in the Southwest for a week, but who knows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Decent look on the GEFS for Sunday as well. A couple wrapped up like the Para, then several that look vaguely Op-like and give us a nice storm and several that are suppressed/weak southern sliders. I'd wager the mean will like quite a bit like the Op. GGEM looks totally different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 23, 2014 Author Share Posted December 23, 2014 Decent look on the GEFS for Sunday as well. A couple wrapped up like the Para, then several that look vaguely Op-like and give us a nice storm and several that are suppressed/weak southern sliders. I'd wager the mean will like quite a bit like the Op. GGEM looks totally different. Most look like they are at least "in the neighborhood". I like the trend of the past day or so. Gonna be a dance between too little cold and too much suppression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 XBOX and Commodore couldn't be further apart in the mid and long range. Hard to believe they are even related. Not sure I trust the XBOX holding a low in the Southwest for a week, but who knows? I'm started to hope they keep both running. Para seems superior and euro-like up to d4. Old GFS seems best @ d6-10. I think higher resolution comes with tradeoffs. It seems to magnify errors through time but performs better than lower res at shorter leads. We're seeing this with the Euro op this year. I don't trust anything it shows beyond d6-7. OP runs should only be used inside of d6 for specifics and even then it's full of problems. D1-4 for sure though. Using their general idea beyond d6 and comparing it to the ensembles is good practice. Even though it's fun having ops go 10-15 days, weenies would be better served if ops stopped @ d7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 23, 2014 Author Share Posted December 23, 2014 I'm started to hope they keep both running. Para seems superior and euro-like up to d4. Old GFS seems best @ d6-10. I think higher resolution comes with tradeoffs. It seems to magnify errors through time but performs better than lower res at shorter leads. We're seeing this with the Euro op this year. I don't trust anything it shows beyond d6-7. OP runs should only be used inside of d6 for specifics and even then it's full of problems. D1-4 for sure though. Using their general idea beyond d6 and comparing it to the ensembles is good practice. Even though it's fun having ops go 10-15 days, weenies would be better served if ops stopped @ d7. Good point about the magnification of errors. I know everyone would enjoy winter much more if they'd stop looking so far ahead. It was right about this time last year that I put a five day limit on myself. It helped to slow down the passing of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Good point about the magnification of errors. I know everyone would enjoy winter much more if they'd stop looking so far ahead. It was right about this time last year that I put a five day limit on myself. It helped to slow down the passing of winter. don't tell me how to be happy....I'm not worthy to be happy this time of year!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 GEFS now serving Baked Alaska from now until Jan 9th. Quite Nina-ish. Flipflop flipflop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 GEFS now serving Baked Alaska from now until Jan 9th. Quite Nina-ish. Flipflop flipflop. I'm tellin' ya', CFS2 is seeing something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 I'm started to hope they keep both running. Para seems superior and euro-like up to d4. Old GFS seems best @ d6-10. I think higher resolution comes with tradeoffs. It seems to magnify errors through time but performs better than lower res at shorter leads. We're seeing this with the Euro op this year. I don't trust anything it shows beyond d6-7. OP runs should only be used inside of d6 for specifics and even then it's full of problems. D1-4 for sure though. Using their general idea beyond d6 and comparing it to the ensembles is good practice. Even though it's fun having ops go 10-15 days, weenies would be better served if ops stopped @ d7. While I do understand the concern about higher resolution, we have to remember that the new version of the GFS has a lot of things besides resolution that are different, compared to the current operational version: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/notification/tin14-46gfs_aab.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 While I do understand the concern about higher resolution, we have to remember that the new version of the GFS has a lot of things besides resolution that are different, compared to the current operational version: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/notification/tin14-46gfs_aab.htm Thanks - I had forgotten about the change from Eulerian dynamics to Semi-Lagrangian dynamics, which uses Hermite interpolation in both vertical and horizontal directions! Wot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 23, 2014 Author Share Posted December 23, 2014 don't tell me how to be happy....I'm not worthy to be happy this time of year!!!!! My fault Mitch...sorry. For you the key to happiness would be a CFSv2 that ran hourly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Would a fast flow mean more Alberta Clippers? (ala Feb-Mar 2007)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Would a fast flow mean more Alberta Clippers? (ala Feb-Mar 2007)? If we were northern stream dominated, this might be true, but we still have a busy southern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 The Euro will save us. Right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 The Euro will save us. Right? If you like rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 I've been ignoring Atari...it is clear even without knowing the background that Para is more skilled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Euro amps up the 29th storm and cuts it west. Shocker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 23, 2014 Author Share Posted December 23, 2014 If you like rain. I like precip...at this point I like amped better than suppressed. Of course, I have no idea what it shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 The Euro will save us. Right? stone cold Pittsburgh cutter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 23, 2014 Author Share Posted December 23, 2014 Euro amps up the 29th storm and cuts it west. Shocker. Good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 I like precip...at this point I like amped better than suppressed. Of course, I have no idea what it shows. 1000mb into Pittsburgh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Why? Here's the QBO for 1965-1966 1965 -1.03 -2.26 -1.98 -3.44 -7.10 -12.01 -16.00 -18.19 -20.03 -20.13 -19.74 -21.271966 -21.90 -17.14 -11.07 -2.33 2.16 5.42 7.47 7.63 9.23 11.00 11.74 13.26 Look at the values for Dec 1965 and Jan 1966. They weren't very different from those this year. A negative QBO like we have now increases the chances of a SSTA somewhere down the road. That's about the only thing you can say. There have been reallyy good snow years with a strongly negative QBO and really bad years. The QBO by itself is less important that the QBO and the solar cycle and whether you have a nino or nina. I believe that there really is no death blow element. These indexes have come to light over last decade or so and each forecaster latches on to his favorite, or least liked, and declares it a saint or the devil. In reality, there is little evidence to support that any one index really controsl anything. Your post above shows that. The storm out west on one panled shows a closed moderate circulation, six hours later an open wave, six hours later a moderate-intense closed low. Something is wrong and even though there is a Korean model I think whomever got to Sony may have gotten to the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Euro amps up the 29th storm and cuts it west. Shocker. Congrats Erie! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 GEFS now serving Baked Alaska from now until Jan 9th. Quite Nina-ish. Flipflop flipflop. how is baked Alaska a Nina thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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