Ji Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 We have a good Nino with a good Postive pdo. Wtf is happening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 New Years storm is cold enough though. Just no precip The pattern by the end of the run ends up looking a lot like last winter..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 We have a good Nino with a good Postive pdo. Wtf is happening? I think it is just early....and nino is pretty weak even though it is producing a train of storms.....December sucks here....But hey...12/28-1/1 could still produce something, especially in your backyard.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Weird....I wonder if this Nino will be a bust after all. Nino's are usually backloaded winters......12/23 is still pretty early.....Me and you get the vast majority of our snow after 1/15..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 If I get 4" in the next month, I'll be ahead of last winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 last 10 years, I've gotten 80% of my snow after 1/15. And that includes 12/18-19/2009....take that winter out and it is like 88% after 1/15....I've found a good way to stay calm and level-headed is to remember that this is a really bad place to live if you like winter.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 last 10 years, I've gotten 80% of my snow after 1/15. And that includes 12/18-19/2009....take that winter out and it is like 88% after 1/15....I've found a good way to stay calm and level-headed is to remember that this is a really bad place to live if you like winter.... Wow. Those are crazy stats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 trend isnt your friend except CFS is turble. and now CFS2 is cold for FEB too http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/htmls/usT2me3Mon.html complain all you want about the model, just hope it's right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 The pattern by the end of the run ends up looking a lot like last winter..... Agree. I've been seeing shades of last winter on the models as well. About 1/3 of the euro ens members have a decent track for the 28-29 deal. I'll be in Dover so it will prob snow in my yard and rain in Dover. Lol. Looks like the same support for the next one in line but too far out to over think and split hairs. I'm fairly optimistic that one of these overunning deals works out. It's kind of ironic that it's not a big storm pattern at all but still could be a big qpf pattern. From the looks on the ensembles it would seem the overunning/gradient pattern continues for a while but the bullseye will move around. Prob moves further north in early Jan but it's anyone's guess. I understand your point about decembers being bad here but it's been bad just about everywhere in the eastern half. Not sure I saw many calls for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 6z GFS has what looks like a light to moderate area wide event for the 28-29 period. Nice track for NVA, MD, DE. Verbatim surface temps are marginal but probably would snow. Also has the NYD storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Are you sure... seems like if they are south they just go further south it looks better on 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 6z GFS has what looks like a light to moderate area wide event for the 28-29 period. Nice track for NVA, MD, DE. Verbatim surface temps are marginal but probably would snow. Also has the NYD storm. our minds were one for a minute on that... I was hoping to get my post in first about 6z. it does look not too shabby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 I think it's still possible to pull of a historic winter even if one month is kinda lame. 1995-96 for example had a lame December (1.3" total for DCA) with some big 40N events that screwed over this area or had snow changing to rain... I mean just take a look at this map for 12/19/1995, it looks hideous for our region... I can only imagine how certain weenies would reacted if this forum had been around http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/1996/19-Dec-95.html Then January happened and the rest is history. Another fascinating winter was 1933-34, an amazing backloaded winter with a torch January followed by frigid cold and heavy snow in February and March and a very impressive snow total in the end especially for Baltimore. Some of the famous cold records of all time came from February 1934. Basically 2006-07 on steroids. Good points, and true enough. It is subjective to a large extent, as to what should be considered historic. But I guess that's almost like arguing that a perfect game is so much better than a "mere" no-hitter. Heck, a no-hitter is still awesome! We most definitely have had winters that started lame and turned around. Given a choice, I'd much rather have a back-loaded season than something like 1989-90, when winter pretty much ended on New Year's day! That map you show is pretty stark, I have to say. It's as if the atmosphere knew precisely where the 40th parallel is located (maybe it does)!! Interestingly, I was home in Cleveland in December 1995 for Christmas and it was awesome there! It was cold pretty much throughout the 2 week period I was there (except right when I first got home), then we got two big snow events. One on the 19th and another on Jan. 2 just before I left to head back to grad school (down in Atlanta). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Imo- the biggest flag for the 28-29th possibility is it occurs on the front side of the first legit airmass following a relatively warm stretch. It could work of course but we've seen this kind of stuff before and cold chasing precip is a fairly common problem. The next sw in line would likely have a better shot at the right ingredients. Another tricky part of this type of pattern (similar to last year) is it doesn't support wide precip shields with things zipping along the gradient. Orientation could be sweet for higher qpf but the wiggle room for precip types and amounts will be narrow. Roller coaster model suites incoming for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Another fascinating winter was 1933-34, an amazing backloaded winter with a torch January followed by frigid cold and heavy snow in February and March and a very impressive snow total in the end especially for Baltimore. Some of the famous cold records of all time came from February 1934. Basically 2006-07 on steroids. 1933-34 had a very snowy December though, with 7.2 inches in Baltimore. There was also 0.8 inches in November. So, again, this was another historic winter that was well underway by this point, even though January was a temporary lull. But its funny you mentioned 1933-34- I've been researching all our epic Februaries over the last few weeks just for fun and I learned about that one. It doesn't get talked about much because there was no HECS, but that has to be one of the most epic, mind-blowing winter months for Baltimore/BWI: the coldest Feb. ever and tied for the 3rd coldest month ever of any month, 27.3 inches which made it our 5th snowiest February, multiple MECS, multiple record lows and lowest maxs, tied for all-time record low on 2/9/34 at -7 degrees... I encourage all weenies to read about Feb. 1934, 1899 and 1979, crazy stats lol http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-BF94B2FA-7DEA-4CF5-A3C8-ABE2A91CCE0B.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Imo- the biggest flag for the 28-29th possibility is it occurs on the front side of the first legit airmass following a relatively warm stretch. It could work of course but we've seen this kind of stuff before and cold chasing precip is a fairly common problem. The next sw in line would likely have a better shot at the right ingredients. Another tricky part of this type of pattern (similar to last year) is it doesn't support wide precip shields with things zipping along the gradient. Orientation could be sweet for higher qpf but the wiggle room for precip types and amounts will be narrow. Roller coaster model suites incoming for days. Yes exactly. We need the northern stream s/w to zip past us and drag the front through in time for the southern stream s/w to arrive. Seems like maybe we're starting to get a bit of consensus on that storm though (the 29th), with the 12z Euro yesterday being the amped up outlier. The last 24 hours of guidance have certainly had a more snow-friendly look then the couple days before yesterday. Cold air doesn't retreat after the New Year, etc. Hopefully we can score a small-moderate event from one of these overrunning storms and get the 0" monkey off our backs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 I think it is just early....and nino is pretty weak even though it is producing a train of storms.....December sucks here....But hey...12/28-1/1 could still produce something, especially in your backyard.... DT pointed out earlier today that the strong -QBO may be incubating a strong pacific jet stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Yes exactly. We need the northern stream s/w to zip past us and drag the front through in time for the southern stream s/w to arrive. Seems like maybe we're starting to get a bit of consensus on that storm though (the 29th), with the 12z Euro yesterday being the amped up outlier. The last 24 hours of guidance have certainly had a more snow-friendly look then the couple days before yesterday. Cold air doesn't retreat after the New Year, etc. Hopefully we can score a small-moderate event from one of these overrunning storms and get the 0" monkey off our backs. Crazy active southern stream on this mornings GFS. Your right how the model keeps pushing the northern vorts into the perfect position to get cold air in before the southern vorts hit our area. Obviously its going to come down to the timing of those features. And the model seems to want to spit some flurries out with the frontal passage on Christmas day. That would be nice and right on time to lighten the mood in here a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Don S on the main forum just fired a winter cancel warning shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 and now CFS2 is cold for FEB too http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/htmls/usT2me3Mon.html complain all you want about the model, just hope it's right cfs is cold again for january Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Don S on the main forum just fired a winter cancel warning shot.7" is more than the two winters before last combined! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 I detect a shift in sentiment in the models, a hunch, but I believe it real Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 I detect a shift in sentiment in the models, a hunch, but I believe it real I think there's been a shift in the last 24 hours toward a -EPO dominated long-range with a +AO/+NAO. More similar to last year. But given how bad they models have been lately past day 5-7, we shouldn't put much stock in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 7" is more than the two winters before last combined! DCA is so atrocious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 7" is more than the two winters before last combined! Sold! lol This winter is starting to behave unusually. However, the gist of Don's post is mostly about the AO. It's only modestly positive on the means this month and even if it goes 2sd+ it would need to show persistence before any worries. GEFS has been bouncing all over. 3 days ago it was all negative. As the late great Jim Morrison once sang "The future's uncertain and the end is always near". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Sold! lol This winter is starting to behave unusually. However, the gist of Don's post is mostly about the AO. It's only modestly positive on the means this month and even if it goes 2sd+ it would need to show persistence before any worries. GEFS has been bouncing all over. 3 days ago it was all negative. As the late great Jim Morrison once sang "The future's uncertain and the end is always near". and he certainly found that out the hard way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 The -QBO could be the deathblow if it doesn't let up. As Porky Pig would say, that's all folks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 maybe some better strat news on the way this is day 10 30MB off the Euro from last night's run vortex looks to be splitting since I doubt it can get stretched too much further we'll need to check the next few days to see if it actually happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Concentrate on three and four day leads only. How can anyone make even medium time range predictions based on the info the models are spitting out. It's back to the 1960's for weather forecasting until the atmospheric conditions slow down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 The -QBO could be the deathblow if it doesn't let up. As Pork Pig would say, that's all folks! Why? Here's the QBO for 1965-1966 1965 -1.03 -2.26 -1.98 -3.44 -7.10 -12.01 -16.00 -18.19 -20.03 -20.13 -19.74 -21.271966 -21.90 -17.14 -11.07 -2.33 2.16 5.42 7.47 7.63 9.23 11.00 11.74 13.26 Look at the values for Dec 1965 and Jan 1966. They weren't very different from those this year. A negative QBO like we have now increases the chances of a SSTA somewhere down the road. That's about the only thing you can say. There have been reallyy good snow years with a strongly negative QBO and really bad years. The QBO by itself is less important that the QBO and the solar cycle and whether you have a nino or nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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