Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 24 hr snow map on 240 is a beaut. start a thread. Who's turn? We already have 2 big fail threads going on. Maybe we should wait until at least 2 of the 3 upcoming rain events are behind us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 nice sfc cold 850s.. rippin dendrites to ring in '15. I mean it's probably likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 12z Xbox, 12z GGEM and the last couple Euro runs have all had the weak coastal storm on the 29th. Given that I'm still shoveling out from yesterday's Euro blizzard, we know how much 6-7 day progs are worth lately though. At least it is more than one model that has this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 22, 2014 Author Share Posted December 22, 2014 Who's turn? We already have 2 big fail threads going on. Maybe we should wait until at least 2 of the 3 upcoming rain events are behind us. Ian or Ji. Ian started the Thanksgiving thread and Ji started the St Paddy thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Can you post it for posterity? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 That's our one. That's it. Tracking starts Christmas night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Can you post it for posterity? I'm feeling this one... Will be about two hundred miles to the north... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 That's our one. That's it. Tracking starts Christmas night.I might have to hug it since that's the period I said we'd have to wait for at th start of dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 HaHa! Gotta love the ten day DC special. Its definitely worth watching........For another 12 hours at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 22, 2014 Author Share Posted December 22, 2014 Gonna be a winter to remember. I've seen 76-77 thrown around. I remember a snow in early Dec that year followed by little, and very warm around Christmas/New Year, and then BAM!....Deep Freeze Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 GGEM has a nice storm on the 28th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 I wouldn't trust specifics the littlest bit, but I'm glad that the 12z models all seem to show the same consistent threat windows of the 29th and 31st-1st. We'll probably end up with a Chicago blizzard cutter followed by a weak southern slider that gives Charlotte 2-4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Granted we haven't had a true torch this month, but we are running at or above normal across the region, so no, relative to climo it hasn't exactly been chilly. December temp departures to date: DCA: +2.5 IAD: +0.5 BWI: +1.5 yea but that's why i mentioned with the cloudy/windy factor we had for what seemed like over a week. it certainly felt chilly during that time, more so than average. temp wise, it's been on par. i consider +1-2 degree to be pretty much average. getting technical, yes, we've been above average, but in my mind, that's close enough for me to say we've been about average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 I think 87storms will get his wish with the Christmas cutter... 60s are in reach. i seriously have no problems with that right now. much better than 35 and rain. i've been around this area way too long to know that we're not in our snow wheelhouse yet. we've been too average in temps for snow, but once january comes around, bring it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 That's our one. That's it. Tracking starts Christmas night. looking at the Accuwx maps, etc., the snow continues after the 240 hr. verbatim so that accumulation map is low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 looking at the Accuwx maps, etc., the snow continues after the 240 hr. verbatim so that accumulation map is low If this one happens I'll buy everyone a WxRsik t-shirt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 The good news is it's day 11-15 on the euro ensembles. The bad news is it's pretty bad news for people who like snow. Not a torch or anything but it's not something we want to see verify either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 If this one happens I'll buy everyone a WxRsik t-shirtI'll take a large I tend to shrink things Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 12z Xbox, 12z GGEM and the last couple Euro runs have all had the weak coastal storm on the 29th. Given that I'm still shoveling out from yesterday's Euro blizzard, we know how much 6-7 day progs are worth lately though. The models are the biggest mess they have been since prior to 2009-10. After consecutive years of much better performance this is an unsatisfactory setback. As Wes suggested, too many shortwaves and fast flow and they grab onto one and max it out and it does not happen. Did not happen over the weekend and the 965 lakes bomb looks marginal. We are also now at a point we have been at in winter busts past. Snow and cold always 10-15 days away. If we do not change by 1/5/15 then I will be of the conviction that we simply will not change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 if there was ever a cold season where I have had such little confidence in any model at any range, this would be it I'm starting to remember fondly those days of the 48 hr. ETA, 60 hr. Aviation, and once a day Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 The models are the biggest mess they have been since prior to 2009-10. After consecutive years of much better performance this is an unsatisfactory setback. As Wes suggested, too many shortwaves and fast flow and they grab onto one and max it out and it does not happen. Did not happen over the weekend and the 965 lakes bomb looks marginal. We are also now at a point we have been at in winter busts past. Snow and cold always 10-15 days away. If we do not change by 1/5/15 then I will be of the conviction that we simply will not change. 1/5 is still about 2 weeks too early to declare things will not change. 1/20 is the measure I like to go by. In years that saw nothing notable during the first half but did turn around to at least end up respectable, the turn started around 1/20. Some examples are 86/87, 99/2000, 04/05, 06/07. Other examples of second half winters where the change took place in February were 78/79, 85/86, 92/93. You could also make an argument for 79/80 as well. Some of the above mentioned winters made the wait worth it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 1/5 is still about 2 weeks too early to declare things will not change. 1/20 is the measure I like to go by. In years that saw nothing notable during the first half but did turn around to at least end up respectable, the turn started around 1/20. Some examples are 86/87, 99/2000, 04/05, 06/07. Other examples of second half winters where the change took place in February were 78/79, 85/86, 92/93. You could also make an argument for 79/80 as well. Some of the above mentioned winters made the wait worth it. I'm with you 100% on those winters because I was thinking about most of them myself earlier "late" winters are all we have some years, but they can be fruitful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 There's no point in LR forecasting this winter. The models are all over the place this winter, including the all-mighty/too relied upon Euro. I do think the second-half of winter will be much better, though that's based on gut feeling, nothing scientific/model reading (though that hasn't exactly panned out for us anyways). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 In addition to the fast flow, One of the problems this month, is that nearly all of our threats are disappearing when they get within 4 days. Therefore, we are spending all of our time looking at days 4-10. If we had some threats we wouldn't spend so much time focusing on days 7-10 when skill scores for operational models are at or below climatology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 1/5 is still about 2 weeks too early to declare things will not change. 1/20 is the measure I like to go by. In years that saw nothing notable during the first half but did turn around to at least end up respectable, the turn started around 1/20. Some examples are 86/87, 99/2000, 04/05, 06/07. Other examples of second half winters where the change took place in February were 78/79, 85/86, 92/93. You could also make an argument for 79/80 as well. Some of the above mentioned winters made the wait worth it. That's about right, I always tell people think about summer and how many summers have done a 180 after July 15th, not very many, usually if the pattern of June is going to reverse it does so by mid July. I have seen a few flip later like 2001 but it's fairly rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 23, 2014 Author Share Posted December 23, 2014 I thought the 18z members looked ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 1/5 is still about 2 weeks too early to declare things will not change. 1/20 is the measure I like to go by. In years that saw nothing notable during the first half but did turn around to at least end up respectable, the turn started around 1/20. Some examples are 86/87, 99/2000, 04/05, 06/07. Other examples of second half winters where the change took place in February were 78/79, 85/86, 92/93. You could also make an argument for 79/80 as well. Some of the above mentioned winters made the wait worth it. Its true that you can have a Dec shutout and still get an above average winter overall, but the odds of a historic winter overall like many called for on this forum are pretty slim to none right now. It's really only happened twice- 1978-79 and 1986-87. Now you can still get a HECS in an otherwise crappy winter (Jan. 2000 and Mar. 1942 come to mind) but most of our historic winters were well underway by this point. And a lot of those you mentioned (85/86, 04/05, 06/07, etc.) were still below average snowfall overall even though the winter itself was backloaded. But I do agree with you that around 1/20 is probably the point of no return. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Its true that you can have a Dec shutout and still get an above average winter overall, but the odds of a historic winter overall like many called for on this forum are pretty slim to none right now. It's really only happened twice- 1978-79 and 1986-87. Now you can still get a HECS in an otherwise crappy winter (Jan. 2000 and Mar. 1942 come to mind) but most of our historic winters were well underway by this point. And a lot of those you mentioned (85/86, 04/05, 06/07, etc.) were still below average snowfall overall even though the winter itself was backloaded. But I do agree with you that around 1/20 is probably the point of no return. Yeah, a historic winter is off the table at this point... they just never happen two consecutive years since they are so rare to begin with and I don't recall many posters predicting one... but I'm sure there was someone. I think 150% of average is our ceiling and best case scenario. Otherwise I think the most likely scenario is somewhere between the median and average snowfall. We'll probably get a few good chances this season but anything over 150% of climo requires either a setup that's hard to reach, or a very lucky fluke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 23, 2014 Author Share Posted December 23, 2014 Yeah, a historic winter is off the table at this point... they just never happen two consecutive years since they are so rare to begin with and I don't recall many posters predicting one... but I'm sure there was someone. I think 150% of average is our ceiling and best case scenario. Otherwise I think the most likely scenario is somewhere between the median and average snowfall. We'll probably get a few good chances this season but anything over 150% of climo requires a setup that's hard to reach or a very lucky fluke. Zero logic in this post. The past does not determine the future. You can't say with any certainty that an historic winter is off the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Zero logic in this post. The past does not determine the future. You can't say with any certainty that an historic winter is off the table. I'm 90-95% certain. Enough to have deterministic wording. What I can't stand is people ruling out a good winter, but a historic winter (50"+ for BWI/IAD) is much, much harder to get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.