packbacker Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Weeklies can be good at times but usually only in a stable pattern. They are only an extension of the ensembles from 0z on the day they are run. Week 3 from the weeklies on the 15th of Dec are going to end up a good bit worse from how things look right now. I only post verbatim because not many people pay for access to them. We're not in a stable pattern so things are jumpy beyond 7 days let alone 3-4 weeks. The trends are not in our favor inside of 2 weeks right now. That can change but right now I'm only looking for 1 thing and that's a -ao. Nothing is showing that beyond a transient shot. I'm personally not optimistic for an extended "easy" pattern right now. For as bad as the 0z EPS was last night, (-PNA, +AO, +NAO), let's hope by end of week 4 we see some light at the end of the tunnel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Once again. Just looking at the run to run comparisons of the models should give anyone pause in believing anything you see on them. They have not been very good so far this winter. And that includes the mighty Euro. The pattern is so progressive right now. I dont think we will see a bomb on the coast. But some decent overrunning events are not out of the question. Maybe a surprise clipper at some point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Still looks like some threat windows exist around the 29th, 31st and maybe the 2nd or 3rd, but the long range progs look disappointing for sure. AO and NAO only go negative for a transient period and then both go moderately positive it looks like. Only silver lining is that the long range progs have sucked so far this year and we're entering peak climo so we can sneak in some small-moderate events without some amazing thread-the-needle scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 For as bad as the 0z EPS was last night, (-PNA, +AO, +NAO), let's hope by end of week 4 we see some light at the end of the tunnel. The weeklies tonight aren't going to be pretty. I don't want to see an extension of last night's run. The big picture isn't tragic but it's far from a big cold or big snow pattern. All of the earlier optimism was based on the Xmas storm pumping up stout ridging in the nao region. Probably safe to say that's off the table. We don't know where the trough axis is going to set up with the upcoming -epo pattern but the trends in the high latitudes favor it being a bit too far west for both of our regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 How often are the weeklies released? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Still looks like some threat windows exist around the 29th, 31st and maybe the 2nd or 3rd, but the long range progs look disappointing for sure. AO and NAO only go negative for a transient period and then both go moderately positive it looks like. Only silver lining is that the long range progs have sucked so far this year and we're entering peak climo so we can sneak in some small-moderate events without some amazing thread-the-needle scenario. Agree. The period could do something. But until something shows at med-short leads we really can't feel optimistic. We're walking the line more than we thought. The deep cold push has really backed off on guidance. IF we are on the right side of a boundary and IF a fast moving disturbance hits at the right time we will be happy. I'm just going to casually watch the period and hope something pops inside of 4 days. It's a pretty bad pattern for med-long lead tracking. How often are the weeklies released? Monday and Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Still looks like some threat windows exist around the 29th, 31st and maybe the 2nd or 3rd, but the long range progs look disappointing for sure. AO and NAO only go negative for a transient period and then both go moderately positive it looks like. Only silver lining is that the long range progs have sucked so far this year and we're entering peak climo so we can sneak in some small-moderate events without some amazing thread-the-needle scenario. This is the period that's keeping me optimistic. If we can't produce then, I may start getting a little loopy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 I'd like to ban SSW and Siberian Snowcover talk in the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Still looks like some threat windows exist around the 29th, 31st and maybe the 2nd or 3rd, but the long range progs look disappointing for sure. AO and NAO only go negative for a transient period and then both go moderately positive it looks like. Only silver lining is that the long range progs have sucked so far this year and we're entering peak climo so we can sneak in some small-moderate events without some amazing thread-the-needle scenario. http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 I'd like to ban SSW and Siberian Snowcover talk in the future. there's no magic bullet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 22, 2014 Author Share Posted December 22, 2014 Might as well throw darts or roll dice as trust anything past 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Might as well throw darts or roll dice as trust anything past 5 days. Models can accurately predict bad patterns. It's the good ones that are fickle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Long-range forecasting has always been very challenging. The work of Cohen is very good, but not an exact science. However, I would not be too quick to throw in the towel on the winter of 2014-2015 just yet. There are increasing signals that our winter fortunes may be changing to a more favorable period, plus the fact we are getting into climo money range January and February could easily produce storms that will get all of us above average snowfall for the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Models can accurately predict bad patterns. It's the good ones that are fickle. A monkey could predict bad patterns around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 trend isnt your friend except CFS is turble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Long-range forecasting has always been very challenging. The work of Cohen is very good, but not an exact science. However, I would not be too quick to throw in the towel on the winter of 2014-2015 just yet. There are increasing signals that our winter fortunes may be changing to a more favorable period, plus the fact we are getting into climo money range January and February could easily produce storms that will get all of us above average snowfall for the season. Don't look at the GEFS and EURO EPS because they disagree as we enter the New Year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Anyone see 12Z NAM for X-Mas day? Rain ending as snow in Baltimore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Long-range forecasting has always been very challenging. The work of Cohen is very good, but not an exact science. However, I would not be too quick to throw in the towel on the winter of 2014-2015 just yet. There are increasing signals that our winter fortunes may be changing to a more favorable period, plus the fact we are getting into climo money range January and February could easily produce storms that will get all of us above average snowfall for the season. Funny how "SantaBomb" was supposed to usher in colder air and change the overall pattern here in the Mid-Atlantic. Highs going to be near 60 the rest of the week. Anything past 3 days on a model, is a crap shoot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Long-range forecasting has always been very challenging. The work of Cohen is very good, but not an exact science. However, I would not be too quick to throw in the towel on the winter of 2014-2015 just yet. There are increasing signals that our winter fortunes may be changing to a more favorable period, plus the fact we are getting into climo money range January and February could easily produce storms that will get all of us above average snowfall for the season. I'm joking in the banter thread, but I'm not quitting this winter. But that said, the really big winter predictions (for cold and snow) certainly look precarious right now. Still though, Nino winters are often backloaded. So I could still see it possible where we're all <6" of snow by mid-late January and then we have some sort of epic 2-4 week period with a KU and bitter cold. But I certainly don't want to be relying on that to get to climo snowfall. Would be nice if we can at least get a decent moderate event by the end of the first week of January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Anyone see 12Z NAM for X-Mas day? Rain ending as snow in Baltimore? No it doesn't. Tony missed something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Anyone see 12Z NAM for X-Mas day? Rain ending as snow in Baltimore? Also: poor model reading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 I'm using the logic that if the models never delivered on all the 10 day awesome patterns then they won't deliver on the 10 day torcher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 trend isnt your friend except CFS is turble. it has warm west, colder east relatively speaking seems pretty consistent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 it has warm west, colder east relatively speaking seems pretty consistent Most recent one looks a bit like December tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysready126 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 I'm using the logic that if the models never delivered on all the 10 day awesome patterns then they won't deliver on the 10 day torcher Applause... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 I'm using the logic that if the models never delivered on all the 10 day awesome patterns then they won't deliver on the 10 day torcher Fast flow is playing absolute havoc with the models. So I don't trust much in the mid-long term. I think there will be cold "around" since the -EPO will reload Canada with some chilly air. There also looks like there will be some storms. Last year we rolled 7s whenever we had that setup. This year so far, naso much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Friday looks nice... T-shirt weather? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Most recent one looks a bit like December tho. yeah, I agree but looking back at the prior dates it seems to wax and wane with the warm west/cold east hopefully, it starts to shift the cold back in the east tomorrow......and it's right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 yeah, I agree but looking back at the prior dates it seems to wax and wane with the warm west/cold east hopefully, it starts to shift the cold back in the east tomorrow......and it's right! Knowing the CFS tomorrow we will be in the freezer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Friday looks nice... T-shirt weather? Yes. that sounds great and something we don't see too much of around these parts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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