T. August Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 yup...December might have been a tad warmer than some of us predicted, but I honestly didn't expect much....even last season I had only 1.5" entering January.....and ended up with 36.5"....we do back end pretty well here....which makes sense given climo.... Wow, you had quite the turnaround. Who knows, maybe you'll get that 1.5" before Jan. again. One thing is certain: The next chance for accumulating snow in the region is after Christmas through the first week of January. Does anything come out of that pattern is the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Wow, you had quite the turnaround. Who knows, maybe you'll get that 1.5" before Jan. again. One thing is certain: The next chance for accumulating snow in the region is after Christmas through the first week of January. Does anything come out of that pattern is the question. I had an inch last Dec and ended up with 41 for the winter....and I made a post in banter a day or so ago about unrealistic expectations for December in general, and esp this year. It just doesn't snow much, esp on the coastal plain, till after Xmas. Yet people still get all worked up over "losing" a month of winter. Well last year Dec didn't yield much of anything unless you were NW of the cities, and it seemed like a damn long winter to me. Probably just as likely to get snow in the first couple weeks of March as the last 2 weeks of December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 I had an inch last Dec and ended up with 41 for the winter....and I made a post in banter a day or so ago about unrealistic expectations for December in general, and esp this year. It just doesn't snow much, esp on the coastal plain, till after Xmas. Yet people still get all worked up over "losing" a month of winter. Well last year Dec didn't yield much of anything unless you were NW of the cities, and it seemed like a damn long winter to me. Probably just as likely to get snow in the first couple weeks of March as the last 2 weeks of December. Like you said, Dec. generally isn't a good snow month. Last year it was my least snowy month, with around 8". March came in at 9.6" I think (I lost my records). But, even though it isn't wise to do so, I end up comparing this December to last December. When I do that, it puts me in a bad mood lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 yup...December might have been a tad warmer than some of us predicted, but I honestly didn't expect much....even last season I had only 1.5" entering January.....and ended up with 36.5"....we do back end pretty well here....which makes sense given climo....Mostly agree except for the ao. Dec could easily end up positive on the means but not raging or anything. Early Jan is also showing no signs of an anomalous -ao. Cohen has been chasing the -ao as well with the latest progs being a ssw in the second half of Jan with a lagged response maybe as late as Feb. If the ao ends up neutral or pos on the means through the end of Jan it's a pretty big bust for our purposes. We don't need a ssw for a neg ao but so far blocking has been completely absent and now the upcoming period is looking more transient as we move forward in time. An extended blocking period will be necessary to get to climo unless we get lucky like last year. Not a realistic expectation If it goes down like that. Until a persistent blocking pattern starts showing inside of 7 days and actually has legs I will remain skeptical. The overall state and tendency of the ao has not been our friend and there aren't any concrete signs of that changing anytime soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysready126 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 why isnt anyone talking about the new years eve potential? Realistically we can get a good storm as per both the GFS parallel and Euro???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Our blocking pattern will probably show up right about the time normal highs hit low 50s. That should get us a few more good 35F rain storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysready126 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Our blocking pattern will probably show up right about the time normal highs hit low 50s. That should get us a few more good 35F rain storms. that is way to sour for my palette. There is no reason for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Our blocking pattern will probably show up right about the time normal highs hit low 50s. That should get us a few more good 35F rain storms. meh.... anyone who's just going to cancel winter or say we aren't getting a good pattern this year should probably do it in either the banter thread or spring/summer countdown thread. Maybe it's just me, but I think this thread should be reserved for serious discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 most people i know don't really following the weather like i do, but from my experience winter isn't considered "weak" to people until we get to early february and we still haven't had at least one decent storm or two. if anything, i think most people see this winter as pretty on par and certainly not mild so far (assuming start date of dec 1). imo, it's been pretty chilly when you take into account the wind/cloudy factor that we've had a fair amount of the last couple weeks. we're due for a brief warmup. this isn't michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 that is way to sour for my palette. There is no reason for this. See Bob's post just above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 GFSP brings the storm closer to the coast on the 29th and is warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 para still has the 29-30 storm.. less impressive than 18z and not much snow around here really but it's there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 most people i know don't really following the weather like i do, but from my experience winter isn't considered "weak" to people until we get to early february and we still haven't had at least one decent storm or two. if anything, i think most people see this winter as pretty on par and certainly not mild so far (assuming start date of dec 1). imo, it's been pretty chilly when you take into account the wind/cloudy factor that we've had a fair amount of the last couple weeks. we're due for a brief warmup. this isn't michigan. Granted we haven't had a true torch this month, but we are running at or above normal across the region, so no, relative to climo it hasn't exactly been chilly. December temp departures to date: DCA: +2.5 IAD: +0.5 BWI: +1.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Dca may go +3-4 for Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysready126 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Weeklies have a solid -nao signal during the first week of Jan. Aleutian low builds during that week as well and holds through the end of the run. Nice ridging in western canada weeks 3-4. Overall looks like a wintry pattern for the first half of Jan. Not a frigid pattern but definitely a nice look for winter weather in general. See Bob's post just above. With all due respect to Bob since he is one of the only forum members that I learn from on this forum (thanks Bob), we can be singing a different tune in 6 days.... Like I said, there is no reason for that type of pessimism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 With all due respect to Bob since he is one of the only forum members that I learn from on this forum (thanks Bob), we can be singing a different tune in 6 days.... Like I said, there is no reason for that type of pessimism. If one examines the data at hand (which in this case is recent history AND model predictions going forward) the only conclusion that can be drawn is that blocking is, and has been, lacking and isn't progged to happen in the immediate future. My comment was somewhat (very little) in jest, but please show me the reason for optimism without citing Judah Cohen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Dca may go +3-4 for Dec. I think 87storms will get his wish with the Christmas cutter... 60s are in reach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Models had a nice one for us this weekend and then a monster out west and they fizzle. Seeing a perfect coastal may be more of the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 With all due respect to Bob since he is one of the only forum members that I learn from on this forum (thanks Bob), we can be singing a different tune in 6 days.... Like I said, there is no reason for that type of pessimism. Weeklies can be good at times but usually only in a stable pattern. They are only an extension of the ensembles from 0z on the day they are run. Week 3 from the weeklies on the 15th of Dec are going to end up a good bit worse from how things look right now. I only post verbatim because not many people pay for access to them. We're not in a stable pattern so things are jumpy beyond 7 days let alone 3-4 weeks. The trends are not in our favor inside of 2 weeks right now. That can change but right now I'm only looking for 1 thing and that's a -ao. Nothing is showing that beyond a transient shot. I'm personally not optimistic for an extended "easy" pattern right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 When was the last time we had a solid -NAO in the winter? Seems like it's been ages.... me thinks we are due this year or next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 When was the last time we had a solid -NAO in the winter? Seems like it's been ages.... me thinks we are due this year or next. Dec 2010? Last time I can recall a stout, stable one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysready126 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 If one examines the data at hand (which in this case is recent history AND model predictions going forward) the only conclusion that can be drawn is that blocking is, and has been, lacking and isn't progged to happen in the immediate future. My comment was somewhat (very little) in jest, but please show me the reason for optimism without citing Judah Cohen. Understand that this does not indicate an extreme SSW event but it will help in developing more favorable conditions.... I dont have access to the Euro (and ENS) but this should help with the AO going forward. The Euro (from what I understand) supports a warming event (even more than the GFS) that should help to propagate surface cooling effects by mid January. Lastly, the models are not known to handle changes in tele's too well so I wouldn't be surprised to see some more favorable changes over the next 6-10 days as model runs evolve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Understand that this does not indicate an extreme SSW event but it will help in developing more favorable conditions.... I dont have access to the Euro (and ENS) but this should help with the AO going forward. The Euro (from what I understand) supports a warming event (even more than the GFS) that should help to propagate surface cooling effects by mid January. Lastly, the models are not known to handle changes in tele's too well so I wouldn't be surprised to see some more favorable changes over the next 6-10 days as model runs evolve. Also wouldn't be surprised to see unfavorable changes in the coming days. And any positive effects in NA from a forecasted SSW event will take some time to be felt, possibly more so in the East. If the SSW occurs in late Jan, then it COULD be mid-Feb by the time we could reap the benefits. Avg highs inside the beltway hit 50 by the end of Feb. Again, I'm not - and I doubt Bob is either - being pessimistic that we'll see no cold air or shots at snow events, I'm simply not optimistic that we see a "good" (blocking) pattern any time soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Also wouldn't be surprised to see unfavorable changes in the coming days. And any positive effects in NA from a forecasted SSW event will take some time to be felt, possibly more so in the East. If the SSW occurs in late Jan, then it COULD be mid-Feb by the time we could reap the benefits. Avg highs inside the beltway hit 50 by the end of Feb. Again, I'm not - and I doubt Bob is either - being pessimistic that we'll see no cold air or shots at snow events, I'm simply not optimistic that we see a "good" (blocking) pattern any time soon. Early to mid-February is just about the perfect time to reap the benefits of SSW... it's by far the most favorable time for a big storm and climo is at its best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Early to mid-February is just about the perfect time to reap the benefits of SSW... it's by far the most favorable time for a big storm and climo is at its best. Maybe, but it's also quite late in our winter (typically).... and 6 weeks away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Not the best overnight model runs, it seems every time we take 1 step forward, we take 2 steps backwards... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Storm at the end of GFS-P looks promising, and the GFS gives some snow on the 29th/30th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 22, 2014 Author Share Posted December 22, 2014 The GPS brothers give hope after this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 jury's out and nothing that has happened, or failed to happen, gives any incite imho the fall had a lot of decent signs like colder than normal temps in OCT & NOV along with AN precip add to that the PDO in NOV as discussed by Isotherm in that link I posted, and there's still plenty to be optimistic about, again imho AND......saving the best for last <drum roll>......CFS2 keeps getting colder for JAN it hasn't been cold all fall sooooo, maybe it's seeing something like it did last winter Winterwxluvr aside (j/k!), I think that's a positive sign; bad part is that it is dry for JAN but .6" of qpf needs to fall as snow at BWI for an average month and that's doable even in a dry month so long as it's BN temp-wise as for the Euro weeklies, I think they need to be renamed to the Euro weaklies because their accuracy have been pretty darn blah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Understand that this does not indicate an extreme SSW event but it will help in developing more favorable conditions.... I dont have access to the Euro (and ENS) but this should help with the AO going forward. The Euro (from what I understand) supports a warming event (even more than the GFS) that should help to propagate surface cooling effects by mid January. Lastly, the models are not known to handle changes in tele's too well so I wouldn't be surprised to see some more favorable changes over the next 6-10 days as model runs evolve. Here is the Euro, only issue I see is the warming does start to wane by day 15 on the GFS, which would mean we have to start all over again which takes us till end of Jan. http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/winterdiagnostics/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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