psuhoffman Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Some people like a +nao/-pna/se ridge comboThat can be a good pattern in a winter like last year with sustained cold. This year I expect cold will be more transient based on niño climo. I expected above norm snowfall but from less events and bigger storms. That type pattern really limits the high end potential since anything that bombs will cut. Won't see many big coastals in that pattern and I'm not sure this is the type year we can nickel and dime to a good winter. I want to see a nice block develop at some point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Some people like a +nao/-pna/se ridge combo Yeah the EURO EPS continues to expand the above normal 850s into the new year. It has legs and is a concern.... Hopefully we squeeze something in before that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Some people like a +nao/-pna/se ridge combo Big SE ridge in question maybe tho wouldn't be shocking. Not great tho there was a trend in that period for blocking to try to lock in and seems to be evaporating. Persistence is a pain.. partly why I'd like to at least get on the board in Dec even if it's piddly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Btw my last 2 posts came off very pessimistic. I've not given up on a good winter yet, just less encouraged then I was a week ago. I have little faith the models are getting the pattern after New Years right so perhaps things trend better for a change. I also doubt they will handle the fast flow next week well so if we do get a storm it's likely to sneak up on us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Not a single flake on the 18Z GFS. The para has a system off of OBX on the 30th. Pretty big differences between the 2 models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Para FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Big SE ridge in question maybe tho wouldn't be shocking. Not great tho there was a trend in that period for blocking to try to lock in and seems to be evaporating. Persistence is a pain.. partly why I'd like to at least get on the board in Dec even if it's piddly.It's really not a terrible look because Canada remains so cold. Still better than where we've been the last couple weeks. But any big storm would likely rain with that pattern and -epo driven cold with fast progressive flow isn't something I want to roll the dice with. But what I want and what happens aren't connected. I'll just go with the 18z para and shovel my foot of powder and move on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Btw my last 2 posts came off very pessimistic. I've not given up on a good winter yet, just less encouraged then I was a week ago. I have little faith the models are getting the pattern after New Years right so perhaps things trend better for a change. I also doubt they will handle the fast flow next week well so if we do get a storm it's likely to sneak up on us.You are always pessimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 18z Para is the perfect I-95 special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Its a miller B, clipper low tracks into Ohio, secondary forms, it shows some pretty nice CAD though. Not the best setup but its the period Im keeping an eye on, ill take anything to track at this point. Tough to get MECSs without a block though so if something does form it would likely be a fast moving +PNA driven storm if that makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Its a miller B, clipper low tracks into Ohio, secondary forms, it shows some pretty nice CAD though. Not the best setup but its the period Im keeping an eye on, ill take anything to track at this point. Tough to get MECSs without a block though so if something does form it would likely be a fast moving +PNA driven storm if that makes sense. Looks like a Miller A to me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Time to stop chasing patterns and accept that any snow will probably be fluke or thread the needle type snows. This winter has shown its hand in my opinion...slow fade...slip slidding away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Winter just started! Good point....but not relevant to what I'm saying but thanks anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Good point....but not relevant to what I'm saying but thanks anyway icy deck in the morning? don't slip while sipping your latte. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 in case no one saw this post in the General Weather forum http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44807-winter-2014-2015-medium-term-discussion/?p=3204549 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Just take a look at the run differences section of the para. The models are all over the place right now. I am guessing it is the progressive pattern that is causing the issue's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Just take a look at the run differences section of the para. The models are all over the place right now. I am guessing it is the progressive pattern that is causing the issue's. yeah I mentioned yesterday in the ill fated thread for yesterday/today's fantasy storm, it will be interesting to see whether the persistent high pressure to the north yesterday and today that killed our chances at snow will make a trend for the winter or just a fluke models are all over the place every run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAsnowlvr82 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Good point....but not relevant to what I'm saying but thanks anyway Actually it is a good point. Your trying to say something has become established and Id say thats a bit premature. Ok more than a bit. Your feeling nervous about things for some reason so you want to air it out and feel better. Hope it worked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Actually it is a good point. Your trying to say something has become established and Id say thats a bit premature. Ok more than a bit. Your feeling nervous about things for some reason so you want to air it out and feel better. Hope it worked. Good point...read it again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 You are always pessimistic.I am realistic and pragmatic. Because there are so many models and runs each day, combined with their tendency to overdo east coast storms, we only seem to get about one real snow for every 5 "threats". Being pragmatic is the best approach. I will get excited though when I do think its a for real high probability event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 This winter has shown its hand in my opinion...slow fade...slip slidding away It has and my face is sore from that hand slapping me all month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 It has and my face is sore from that hand slapping me all month. When we get snow we will enjoy it...screw waiting for a good pattern...give me a surprise out of nowhere storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 22, 2014 Author Share Posted December 22, 2014 If you don't like the 5+ day forecast, just wait 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 meh.... anyone who's just going to cancel winter or say we aren't getting a good pattern this year should probably do it in either the banter thread or spring/summer countdown thread. Maybe it's just me, but I think this thread should be reserved for serious discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Time to stop chasing patterns and accept that any snow will probably be fluke or thread the needle type snows. This winter has shown its hand in my opinion...slow fade...slip slidding away I'm not trying to be confrontational but the reality is nothing is slipping away. Go back and look at records For DCA and BWI and you will see there have been so many examples of years where they recorded an inch or less in December. Who knows what it all means but many of those years saw near average or above average for snowfall. Let's the see how the next 1-2 weeks plays out before we declare phantom pattern chasing or winter showing it's hand nonsense. Is there some cause for concern, maybe a little, but there is also a lot of reason for optimism. We really are just at the starting line and there is no reason to believe we need to thread the needle or get a fluke. Finally if the analogs a lot of people are using have any merit then it will be the second half of winter that we will remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 in case no one saw this post in the General Weather forum http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44807-winter-2014-2015-medium-term-discussion/?p=3204549 Hmm. Thank you for sharing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Kidding aside, we're just about locked in to a period that "could produce". Even one with a perfect block/trough etc can only be rated as "could". As far as how things are going so far....pretty typical MA winter. Basically normal. Too much hype this fall so everyone in the east outside of the vt/nh mountains and Maine thinks it's awful. 11-12 was awful. There was no hope in sight for weeks on end. If Jan is a see saw between "could" and "can't", is it really atypical bad? Seems pretty normal to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysready126 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 with all due respect to everyone on this forum.... seems to me that winter is going as "planned." To Bob's point a typical start to winter for a weak Nino. All it will take is one of these lows to get tucked under a nice block to get something sizeable. Additionally, SSW is forecasted as per a reliable met on accuweathers boards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 with all due respect to everyone on this forum.... seems to me that winter is going as "planned." To Bob's point a typical start to winter for a weak Nino. All it will take is one of these lows to get tucked under a nice block to get something sizeable. Additionally, SSW is forecasted as per a reliable met on accuweathers boards. yup...December might have been a tad warmer than some of us predicted, but I honestly didn't expect much....even last season I had only 1.5" entering January.....and ended up with 36.5"....we do back end pretty well here....which makes sense given climo.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 22, 2014 Author Share Posted December 22, 2014 yup...December might have been a tad warmer than some of us predicted, but I honestly didn't expect much....even last season I had only 1.5" entering January.....and ended up with 36.5"....we do back end pretty well here....which makes sense given climo.... I'm glad we still have a handful of level headed posters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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