aldie 22 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Feels like a congrats Norfolk kinda deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 12z GFS didn't look bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Feels like a congrats Norfolk kinda deal hope so....I'm going to Williamsburg for a few days in a week just my luck the Euro will be wrong and it rains there and snows here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 hope so....I'm going to Williamsburg for a few days in a week just my luck the Euro will be wrong and it rains there and snows here That storm the 00Z Euro shows will probably be a miss offshore as it shows or even be more wide right, the pattern at that time is progressive as a bullet train, it would require perfect timing and everything to go right, the GFS shunts everything offshore and is probably correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 I'll tell you what, the GFS looks pretty darn cold around the New Year. Coldest run yet. Highs 16-21F on the 31st for the I-95 area. The lows are kinda weird though. They're like 1-2F cooler than the highs. EDIT: Lol I was looking at the 12-hr MAX on WxBell. the lows are actually upper single digits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Euro just tossed out the treble hook and ripped some lips for the 28th. Verbatim, a good bit would be snow. Paste job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Euro just tossed out the treble hook and ripped some lips for the 28th. Verbatim, a good bit would be snow. Paste job. Was just about to post that. Rain to snow for the cities maybe? Probably all snow just N/W? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 GEFS seem to suggest storm chances around the 30-31st and then again around the 2nd it looks like. Some good looking individual members. Several have coastals and several have overrunning southern sliders Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 How much QPF paste verbatim? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Was just about to post that. Rain to snow for the cities maybe? Probably all snow just N/W? All snow out by the blue ridge. Rain changing to snow. The column is fine by hr174. Surface low-mid 30's. DCA would prob get a couple inches. WnWxLuvr would get about 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 GEFS seem to suggest storm chances around the 30-31st and then again around the 2nd it looks like. Some good looking individual members. Several have coastals and several have overrunning southern sliders Euro is going to cut it this run but it's meaningless to take anything at face value. Euro dug h5 deep and raised heights in front. Looked like the typical too much amp late in the run to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Euro is going to cut it this run but it's meaningless to take anything at face value. Euro dug h5 deep and raised heights in front. Looked like the typical too much amp late in the run to me. Yeah, I wouldn't take much of it. Still not any consistency with depictions after Xmas. Looks like we'll have some chances though and cold air around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Yeah, I wouldn't take much of it. Still not any consistency with depictions after Xmas. Looks like we'll have some chances though and cold air around. Well, I haven't checked the EURO, but the 12z GFS also showed a nice snow on the 28th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Well, I haven't checked the EURO, but the 12z GFS also showed a nice snow on the 28th. No it doesn't... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 euro is a very warm run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 No it doesn't... Lol apparently I didn't check the GFS either. GFS shows it on the 30th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 euro is a very warm run Except for the sub freezing highs the day after your 6" snow storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 21, 2014 Author Share Posted December 21, 2014 Euro just tossed out the treble hook and ripped some lips for the 28th. Verbatim, a good bit would be snow. Paste job. Would turn me into a sage after saying we'd be talking about an event in the past tense by the 30th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 At BWI, Euro predicts upper 40s on Saturday. Light rain beginning in the evening with temperatures falling to near 40 by morning. Rain becoming heavy Sunday morning with 850 temperatures falling below zero by mid-morning. Temperatures falling from near 40 to mid 30s with rain changing to snow by late morning. Snow ending by early evening. Times are approximate of course (as is precip type) as any storm is still 6 days away, and I'm looking at 6 hour fields. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 dont worry winter is just starting guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 someone should start a dec 28 thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 lol pattern changing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 The funny thing is Ian through a random plethora of quirky posts and subliminal messages thinks this winter will be huge. Don't be fooled, the posts about hecs, 20", and historic snows are all over this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 The funny thing is Ian through a random plethora of quirky posts and subliminal messages thinks this winter will be huge. Don't be fooled, the posts about hecs, 20", and historic snows are all over this forum.Yeah but I also predicted 3.6" for Bob Chill and don't know what I'm talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 lol pattern changing Or pattern not changing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Yeah but I also predicted 3.6" for Bob Chill and don't know what I'm talking about. Including the .8" or whatever he has? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 21, 2014 Author Share Posted December 21, 2014 Yup... Sucks so bad. The GPS run was better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 euro ens has something in that 28th range but pretty diffuse. nothing else too obvious other than we're near the dividing line so maybe some small systems rolling thru. the pattern out in 300+ land leaves something to be desired.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 the pattern out in 300+ land leaves something to be desired.... Some people like a +nao/-pna/se ridge combo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 The dec 28-jan 3 period has potential. Looks cold with 3 waves coming across. Up side is we have several shots. Down side the nao still doesn't look likely to help enough to ensure anything that really amps doesn't cut. I'm not even sure we could get that anyways in the fast flow. I think were looking at the chance for moderate end systems. I'm fine with that. After the first few days of January I'm getting a little concerned though. I've been less sure of the nao but I really thought a nice +Pna pattern would lock in for a while. Now it's iffy. If we get unlucky the next 2 weeks then the pattern reverts to a +nao -Pna in January it's going to get ugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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