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December Med/Long Range Disco


WinterWxLuvr

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hope so....I'm going to Williamsburg for a few days in a week

just my luck the Euro will be wrong and it rains there and snows here

 

That storm the 00Z Euro shows will probably be a miss offshore as it shows or even be more wide right, the pattern at that time is progressive as a bullet train, it would require perfect timing and everything to go right, the GFS shunts everything offshore and is probably correct.

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GEFS seem to suggest storm chances around the 30-31st and then again around the 2nd it looks like. Some good looking individual members. Several have coastals and several have overrunning southern sliders

Euro is going to cut it this run but it's meaningless to take anything at face value. Euro dug h5 deep and raised heights in front. Looked like the typical too much amp late in the run to me.

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Euro is going to cut it this run but it's meaningless to take anything at face value. Euro dug h5 deep and raised heights in front. Looked like the typical too much amp late in the run to me.

Yeah, I wouldn't take much of it.  Still not any consistency with depictions after Xmas.  Looks like we'll have some chances though and cold air around. 

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At BWI, Euro predicts upper 40s on Saturday.  Light rain beginning in the evening with temperatures falling to near 40 by morning.  Rain becoming heavy Sunday morning with 850 temperatures falling below zero by mid-morning.  Temperatures falling from near 40 to mid 30s with rain changing to snow by late morning.  Snow ending by early evening. 

 

Times are approximate of course (as is precip type) as any storm is still 6 days away, and I'm looking at 6 hour fields. 

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The funny thing is Ian through a random plethora of quirky posts and subliminal messages thinks this winter will be huge. Don't be fooled, the posts about hecs, 20", and historic snows are all over this forum.

Yeah but I also predicted 3.6" for Bob Chill and don't know what I'm talking about.
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euro ens has something in that 28th range but pretty diffuse.  nothing else too obvious other than we're near the dividing line so maybe some small systems rolling thru.  the pattern out in 300+ land leaves something to be desired....

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The dec 28-jan 3 period has potential. Looks cold with 3 waves coming across. Up side is we have several shots. Down side the nao still doesn't look likely to help enough to ensure anything that really amps doesn't cut. I'm not even sure we could get that anyways in the fast flow. I think were looking at the chance for moderate end systems. I'm fine with that. After the first few days of January I'm getting a little concerned though. I've been less sure of the nao but I really thought a nice +Pna pattern would lock in for a while. Now it's iffy. If we get unlucky the next 2 weeks then the pattern reverts to a +nao -Pna in January it's going to get ugly

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