Wonderdog Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 If the -epo with no upstream blocking verifies, it's going to be downright evil tracking stuff. Fast progressive flow while walking the line. We'll actually have to root for weaker storms. Luckily, with the track record of the models in the long range, it probably won't happen that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 I just wake up and check the board at 1am when there is something to track. Yoda play by play is the best. I look forward to the next event but it seems like it might be a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 I just wake up and check the board at 1am when there is something to track. Yoda play by play is the best. I look forward to the next event but it seems like it might be a while. The next event may be a while but not the next track. The 30-31st is going to tease for days. And we're just about in the sweetspot for the euro to set the treble hook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 21, 2014 Author Share Posted December 21, 2014 The next event may be a while but not the next track. The 30-31st is going to tease for days. And we're just about in the sweetspot for the euro to set the treble hook. Euro is for suckers I didn't mean anything bad when I said I haven't stayed up for the Euro. Just never have. If there's a legit threat, I'll sometimes hang on for the GPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Euro is for suckers I didn't mean anything bad when I said I haven't stayed up for the Euro. Just never have. If there's a legit threat, I'll sometimes hang on for the GPS. Outside of 4 days I usually don't stay up unless it might be big. Depends what I'm doing the next day. I fall asleep whenever I feel like it. Sometimes 10pm and other times 1am regardless of weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 not one flake on tonights 00z GFS run. What a disaster this winter is becoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 not one flake on tonights 00z GFS run. What a disaster this winter is becoming COLD AND DRYYYY...after tropical Storm Santa Bomb. Its one run of the GFS op....relax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 I will be rooting for warm/wet pattern in lieu of any coldish /dry pattern. Let's see what the next week has in store. Toss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 http://www.wxrisk.com/the-dts/ DT not very big on Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 http://www.wxrisk.com/the-dts/ DT not very big on Jan. Mid-Late Jan could potentially suck. SE ridge could rear its ugly head if the MJO doesn't cooperate. Remains to be seen of course. But DT's concerns are certainly valid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 http://www.wxrisk.com/the-dts/ DT not very big on Jan. And Cosgrove just went cold and stormy first half of Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Since people feel like making disparaging comments on the GFS Op in the long range...00z Euro Op has a decent setup and a near miss for most on the 28th. Actually hits folks S+E of I-95 and leaves the N+W people dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Thunderstorms on Christmas eve. SMH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Mid-Late Jan could potentially suck. SE ridge could rear its ugly head if the MJO doesn't cooperate. Remains to be seen of course. But DT's concerns are certainly valid. Weenies on DT's facebook page are already worried that he's canceling winter after January 10th... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Looks like a cutter trying to develop day 10 on euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 I would take 6z gfs and call it a winter:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 I would take 6z gfs and call it a winter:)You liked it? I thought it was horrible. But I didn't bother to look at 0z.I skipped ahead to the late 300s...the 200 hr looked decent. Now I see why you said call it a winter cause after 1st of year it looks like winter ended abruptly on that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 21, 2014 Author Share Posted December 21, 2014 You liked it? I thought it was horrible. But I didn't bother to look at 0z. I skipped ahead to the late 300s...the 200 hr looked decent. Now I see why you said call it a winter cause after 1st of year it looks like winter ended abruptly on that run. I must be looking at a different model. Does nobody find it interesting how different mid to late week is now modeled vs how it looked 3 or 4 days ago?? Yeah, I'm gonna worry about modeled weather 10 days away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 I must be looking at a different model. Does nobody find it interesting how different mid to late week is now modeled vs how it looked 3 or 4 days ago?? Yeah, I'm gonna worry about modeled weather 10 days away Yeah, I thought the 6z GFS was promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Thunderstorms on Christmas eve. SMH. Well, we suck at snow...and in summer we suck at everything but heat. So if we cant get thunderstorms then, bring it on for Santa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Keep an eye out on the Dec 28-Jan 1st period. Last night's EURO & this AM's GFS show a somewhat favorable pattern for that time period. Both are showing a +PNA spike which correlates to a shot at a snowstorm around that time period. We also have some light ridging over Greenland. Albeit small, it helps a little. What I'm seeing this AM; Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Keep an eye out on the Dec 28-Jan 1st period. Last night's EURO & this AM's GFS show a somewhat favorable pattern for that time period. Both are showing a +PNA spike which correlates to a shot at a snowstorm around that time period. We also have some light ridging over Greenland. Albeit small, it helps a little. What I'm seeing this AM; I like the look, and there may be more than one chance for something decent between the 28th and say the 5th or 6th of Jan. Hopefully this period produces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Nothing really has changed much since the outlook I wrote on Thursday. The pattern still looks interesting from about the 28 through the Jan 2nd or 3rd. Longer term, I am worried a bit by the ridge that keeps popping up off the west coast as that position favors cutters with a positive NAO but cold air and a little southwesterly flow gives us chances for weak waves to provide us with a snow chance or two. I'd still only rank the chances as a little above normal but that's way better than it's been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 By Christmas, we'll be back in full track mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 By Christmas, we'll be back in full track mode. i think its time to reset expectations that this will be an average winter. Not a shutout but probably not epic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 i think its time to reset expectations that this will be an average winter. Not a shutout but probably not epic That's what I'm starting to think... especially if the MJO/QBO causes another warmup in mid-January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 I don't know how anyone can trust the models past 5-6 days. Going forward in September, temps were supposed to above-normal but I don't think that materialized, The storm this week was being hyped ad nauseum when all it's going to be is a warm rainstorm here, and it looks much more benign on the models that it first showed a week ago. Hopefully it's the pattern changer that will usher in some fresh cold air. Because without that, we got nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 i think its time to reset expectations that this will be an average winter. Not a shutout but probably not epic That's where it should have been in the first place man. This won't be last year, but it damn sure won't be 97-98....i hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 West coast ridge positioning question: So what we want, for snow of course, is a west coast ridge and if we like cutters we want a ridge just off the west coast. Is that correct? … and does the PNA change signs between the two? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 West coast ridge positioning question: So what we want, for snow of course, is a west coast ridge and if we like cutters we want a ridge just off the west coast. Is that correct? … and does the PNA change signs between the two? Yes, when the trough is in the west because the ridge is off the coast, we have a negative PNA. When the ridge is over the western U.S> and the trough is in the east, the PNA is positive. Right now it's probably not quite a negative PNA with all the ridging in Alaska but the riding off the coast usually will bring the low too far west for us even if it doen't track into the great lakes. If you have a strong enough block over Greenland with a 50 50 low to its south then the ridge position isn't as important. Also, with the ridge poking way up into Alaska we can still get cold enough to snow with southwesterly flow aloft as long as the upper impulse coming towards us isn't too strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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