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December Med/Long Range Disco


WinterWxLuvr

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Last 15 years at unv: 19.8,32.1,21.7,83.6,71.4,36.2,26.9,37.6,43.2,26.3,49.1,38.4,19,43.6 and 51.8 with an average of 40 which is 6" under their 30 yr avg and still 8" per more than Central Park has averaged over the same 15 years. This central pa snow drought isn't nearly as great as you guys would like to think.

 

Thanks. It's not exactly something I "like" to think, I think the lack of big storms over that area in the past 10 years gives that impression, as well as the often somber mood of that forum. They are still somewhat left behind though... running 15% below their usual average.

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Our first chances at accum snow post 28th are increasing every day. Euro ens members gaining steam. GEFS as well. Fantasy threats will keep us entertained for now.

That's funny Bob. I was about to post the same thing. I think by the 30th we will have a winter event that we are discussing in the past tense.

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Fozz makes some excellent points about central pa.  Over the last several years while we were feasting on KU storms they were salivating for a few fringe flakes.  His point also highlights the fact that southern York, Lancaster, and Adams climos have almost nothing in common with true central PA.  I remember the forum gearing up for 15-25 inches region-wide while areas near Harrisburg were barely pulling out advisory level snows, while south of York there would be two feet.  The cutoff of many of our coastal storms was brutal to the north.  That area has been teased with modeled snow time and time again, just to have the rug pulled out come game time.    

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Our first chances at accum snow post 28th are increasing every day. Euro ens members gaining steam. GEFS as well. Fantasy threats will keep us entertained for now.

Seems to be in line with Nino climo.  Game time for us has always been January time frame.  Nice to see things slowly coming in line.    

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Our first chances at accum snow post 28th are increasing every day. Euro ens members gaining steam. GEFS as well. Fantasy threats will keep us entertained for now.

Yup. Looks interesting. I've liked this period for while for the first legit chance for a significant snow event. Be fun to track, given the pattern will be favorable for the first time in many weeks.

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That's funny Bob. I was about to post the same thing. I think by the 30th we will have a winter event that we are discussing in the past tense.

30th is prob the earliest unless the cold push happens on or before the 27th. Doesn't seem likely because the initial dump happens in the western third first and the front isn't a fast mover . Sometime between the 30th and jan 2nd appears to be looking better every day tho.

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30th is prob the earliest unless the cold push happens on or before the 27th. Doesn't seem likely because the initial dump happens in the western third first and the front isn't a fast mover . Sometime between the 30th and jan 2nd appears to be looking better every day tho.

slow moving fronts with cold/very cold air behind them have the possibility of waves running NE along them, which we used to get around here

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Last 15 years at unv: 19.8,32.1,21.7,83.6,71.4,36.2,26.9,37.6,43.2,26.3,49.1,38.4,19,43.6 and 51.8 with an average of 40 which is 6" under their 30 yr avg and still 8" per more than Central Park has averaged over the same 15 years. This central pa snow drought isn't nearly as great as you guys would like to think.

It's not as bad as some make it out to be, especially avg wise, but the pa snow drought is worse a little east of unv. They benefited last year a lot and unv gets nickel and dime storms, that's tgeir climo. Further east in the 81 corridor they rely more on big events to get snow and they have been missing a lot of the storms to the east lately. I looked at several storms where the track was good for that area to get a 10" snow over the last 15 years yet the Ccb precip shield was intense but wound up tight so places inland in pa got screwed. Not sure if it's a trend or bad luck but that area seems to be missing big storms lately.
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Last 15 years at unv: 19.8,32.1,21.7,83.6,71.4,36.2,26.9,37.6,43.2,26.3,49.1,38.4,19,43.6 and 51.8 with an average of 40 which is 6" under their 30 yr avg and still 8" per more than Central Park has averaged over the same 15 years. This central pa snow drought isn't nearly as great as you guys would like to think.

 

Central Park averages ~26" per season so according to those stats, they are 6" above normal while State College is 6" below normal. Also, the number of 10+" snowstorms NYC has received in the past 15 years is very impressive and somewhat unimpressive for UNV.

 

Here is a list of 2-day snowfall totals >= 10" at Central Park since 1998.

26.9	2006-02-12
20.9	2010-02-26
20.0	2010-12-27
19.8	2003-02-17
19.0	2011-01-27
14.0	2003-12-06
13.8	2005-01-23
12.5	2014-02-14
12.0	2000-12-31
11.5	2014-01-22
11.4	2013-02-09
10.9	2009-12-20
10.3	2004-01-28
10.0	2010-02-11

And here is the same list for State College.

18.2	2003-02-18
14.0	2010-02-07
13.5	2002-01-08
12.4	2004-02-04
12.3	1998-02-25
10.7	2014-02-15
10.4	2007-02-15
10.4	2003-12-06
10.0	2011-03-08

In comparison, the 15 year period from 1983-1997 saw 14 10+" storms at State College vs. only 6 at Central Park.

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slow moving fronts with cold/very cold air behind them have the possibility of waves running NE along them, which we used to get around here

We need to get the first one through. Could something run it? Sure. Doesn't seem likely attm. What happens after is more interesting. Looking at the panels reminds of a little of last year. Cold hp nosing down the center of the country and impulses riding the boundary from texas ene towards the coast.

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30th is prob the earliest unless the cold push happens on or before the 27th. Doesn't seem likely because the initial dump happens in the western third first and the front isn't a fast mover . Sometime between the 30th and jan 2nd appears to be looking better every day tho.

My concern from a few days ago about the southern stream dying once the cold arrives looks like less of a concern now. Pattern looks active on the Ops and ensembles through the end of the runs.  If the GEFS' idea of the -NAO being very transitory is right, then we'll have to watch for cutters, but I think we'll have chances.  

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My concern from a few days ago about the southern stream dying once the cold arrives looks like less of a concern now. Pattern looks active on the Ops and ensembles through the end of the runs. If the GEFS' idea of the -NAO being very transitory is right, then we'll have to watch for cutters, but I think we'll have chances.

I'm so used to not having a -nao that I don't even care anymore. Definitely some shades of last year showing up. Anything wound up early will likely cut. But plenty of activity as you said running the boundaries. We'll walk the line here. 12z gefs members show it prominently.

We're moving towards a good time of year to not need a perfect setup to produce. There's not much of a big storm signal on the horizon but certainly a heck of a lot better look than the first 25 days of the month.

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Last nights EURO EPS showed a pretty transitory shot of cold air before the east PAC omega broke down as well as any -NAO that was in place. Then a southeast ridge began to pop and 850 anomalies went back above of normal.

The mean keeps the 0c line well south until the end of the run. The se ridge is pretty weak and a little se ridge could work in our favor depending on where the pv is in Canada. I agree about it not being a great look but not tragic either.

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The mean keeps the 0c line well south until the end of the run. The se ridge is pretty weak and a little se ridge could work in our favor depending on where the pv is in Canada. I agree about it not being a great look but not tragic either.

It would certainly eliminate the cold/dry/suppression fear. The GFS likes an active end of the year. Has an over-running CAD look.

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It would certainly eliminate the cold/dry/suppression fear. The GFS likes an active end of the year. Has an over-running CAD look.

Sure does. Even a cutter could bang into a cold dome. Wouldnt be pretty if it happened but beggars can't be choosers. I'll just be happy to get out of the not having a chance pattern

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Sure does. Even a cutter could bang into a cold dome. Wouldnt be pretty if it happened but beggars can't be choosers. I'll just be happy to get out of the not having a chance pattern

We had a chance today. It was cold enough for snow today had the storm developed

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Real HECS may be last two weeks of Feb.

It's interesting-- President's Day has been this "get it all out" barrier for DC.  By an amazing coincidence, 5 out of the top 10 DC snowstorms happened during that Friday to Monday window of whenever President's would fall for that calendar year (including the years before President's Day was established). None of the top 10 DC snowstorms came after 2/19. Baltimore and IAD each have only one after 2/19. 

I would like to see the end of that barrier for DC, so hopefully this year works. 

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I think we will get a solid warning level event in the first two weeks of Jan or close. Without going overboard something like a 1" qpf area wide thing which means higher in spots.

A good # of ensemble members like the 30th-4th. Some good southern solutions in there as well. It's not really a big storm pattern but I could see a big slug of overunning in advance of some sort of fast moving storm getting the job done. I'd be totally happy with a 4" storm as long as its not a screwjob compared to neighbors in all directions .

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A good # of ensemble members like the 30th-4th. Some good southern solutions in there as well. It's not really a big storm pattern but I could see a big slug of overunning in advance of some sort of fast moving storm getting the job done. I'd be totally happy with a 4" storm as long as its not a screwjob compared to neighbors in all directions .

At this point I wouldn't care if Richmond or Philly got a foot if can get 4-6. A solid warning criteria event would do just fine.

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