December Med/Long Range Disco

[AlaskaETC]

Cohen's latest...

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

 

Not good....we'll see.

[Fozz]

Cohen's latest...

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

 

Looks like we could have a classic January that starts cold and snowy, has a mid-month thaw, and then reloads late in the month with HECS potential going into February.

 

I'll take it.

[Fozz]

Not good....we'll see.

 

Why not?

[WxUSAF]

Not good....we'll see.

How is it not good?  Looks fine to me.  HM seems to be thinking a SSW is increasing likely as we move through January, similar to Cohen's thoughts. 

[HighStakes]

Not good....we'll see.

Not following.

[AlaskaETC]

How is it not good?  Looks fine to me.  HM seems to be thinking a SSW is increasing likely as we move through January, similar to Cohen's thoughts. 

Just my initial take. Uncertainty about the NAO bothered me the most.

[WxUSAF]

Just my initial take. Uncertainty about the NAO bothered me the most.

It looks like we'll get a period of -NAO coming up.  Probably will last at least a week, maybe more.  Often our big storms occur as the NAO is changing sign in either direction. 

[HighStakes]

How is it not good?  Looks fine to me.  HM seems to be thinking a SSW is increasing likely as we move through January, similar to Cohen's thoughts. 

I would think a SSW in the later half of January would be ideal for us if it were to occur. It could set the stage for a very solid 2-3 week period in February when snowfall climo is at it's peak. Could also open the door for some extreme cold. Maybe shades of Feb. 2007 with more snow.

[HighStakes]

Just my initial take. Uncertainty about the NAO bothered me the most.

A -NAO is more important for the Mid-Atlantic during the second half of winter moving toward February.

[Fozz]

A -NAO is more important for the Mid-Atlantic during the second half of winter moving toward February.

 

I never knew that.... I thought it was important no matter what. What's the reason?

[AlaskaETC]

A -NAO is more important for the Mid-Atlantic during the second half of winter moving toward February.

Yeah, hence my concern.

[WinterWxLuvr]

So now we are already looking to late Jan early Feb? WOW

[BristowWx]

So now we are already looking to late Jan early Feb? WOW

Wow is right. We may have to write off two of the three months of winter...where is that little round smiley face with the ax in his head?

[HighStakes]

I never knew that.... I thought it was important no matter what. What's the reason?

It's never a bad thing at whatever time but from what I understand and heard a -NAO earlier in the season may benefit regions to our south. I think an early season -NAO may also allow a northwest flow to dominate leaving us very cold but dry. As we head later in the season as wavelengths begin to change chances for phasing improves. I'm sure others can provide a better answer but I've heard on many occasions form various mets that a -NAO serves us best in February and March more so than December and early January. My guess is that storms that occur in the first half of winter when we have a -NAO probably deliver better when the NAO is moving back toward positive.

[hosj III]

Wow is right. We may have to write off two of the three months of winter...where is that little round smiley face with the ax in his head?

 

Time for a new 2 inch streak. What's the number to beat?

[WxUSAF]

Who is writing off January?  The last couple days of this month into the first week or two in January could be very nice.  Beyond that who knows? 

[gymengineer]

I know it's tongue-in-cheek to be throwing around HECS in like every other post in here, but maybe there's an underlying sense of expectation there... if so, that's really a setup for disappointment. The only season DC had a top-10 event where we didn't go over 30" seasonal total was 82/83, and that was still a well-above average seasonal snow total.  

 

Why would this season be favored to see a HECS? It was never meant to be as ideal as 09/10. If the forecast is for a somewhat above average snowfall total, we know we get there in much more modest ways. We could get to an above average season with a single 8-12" (far from a HECS) event along with a couple of other smaller events. Or, we could go the 77/78 or 79/80 route and have two or three 4-7" events contribute to most of the seasonal total. 

[Fozz]

It's never a bad thing at whatever time but from what I understand and heard a -NAO earlier in the season may benefit regions to our south. I think an early season -NAO may also allow a northwest flow to dominate leaving us very cold but dry. As we head later in the season as wavelengths begin to change chances for phasing improves. I'm sure others can provide a better answer but I've heard on many occasions form various mets that a -NAO serves us best in February and March more so than December and early January. My guess is that storms that occur in the first half of winter when we have a -NAO probably deliver better when the NAO is moving back toward positive.

 

Thanks... that makes a lot of sense. That might explain why a month like January 2003 was so cold and dry while the south kept getting blasted.

[Fozz]

I know it's tongue-in-cheek to be throwing around HECS in like every other post in here, but maybe there's an underlying sense of expectation there... if so, that's really a setup for disappointment. The only season DC had a top-10 event where we didn't go over 30" seasonal total was 82/83, and that was still a well-above average snowfall.  

 

Why would this season be favored to see a HECS? It was never meant to be as ideal as 09/10. If the forecast is for a somewhat above average snowfall total, we know we get there in much more modest ways. We could get to an above average season with a single 8-12" (far from a HECS) event along with a couple of other smaller events. Or, we could go the 77/78 or 79/80 route and have two or three 4-7" events contribute to most of the seasonal total. 

 

I think an El Nino with good blocking potential will always have a better than average chance of a HECS (of course, it would still be very improbable otherwise it wouldn't be called historic).

 

But my happiness doesn't depend on a HECS... I enjoy both big and small events.

[HighStakes]

I know it's tongue-in-cheek to be throwing around HECS in like every other post in here, but maybe there's an underlying sense of expectation there... if so, that's really a setup for disappointment. The only season DC had a top-10 event where we didn't go over 30" seasonal total was 82/83, and that was still a well-above average snowfall.  

 

Why would this season be favored to see a HECS? It was never meant to be as ideal as 09/10. If the forecast is for a somewhat above average snowfall total, we know we get there in much more modest ways. We could get to an above average season with a single 8-12" (far from a HECS) event along with a couple of other smaller events. Or, we could go the 77/78 or 79/80 route and have two or three 4-7" events contribute to most of the seasonal total. 

I think a lot of us have had unrealistic expectations due the frequent occurrences of KU events starting around the turn of the century. Granted several of these events had little impact on this region but on the other hand many did. I recently did a post about how lucky most have been in terms of MECS and HECS since March 1993 but I don't remember which thread it was, may have been earlier in this one.

 

There are some interesting tidbits concerning KU's. Of the 54 storms listed the earliest was in 1956. From that first one in 1956 until 1992 there were 23 storms listed. From 1993 to current there are 31 listed, but out of those 31 storms, 26 of them took place from 2000 to current. In other words there have been 26 KU events since 2000. Bottom line is there has been almost as many KU events in the last 14 years as there was in the prior 44 year period. So we are clearly in the middle of some type of cycle producing large storms.

[gymengineer]

I think an El Nino with good blocking potential will always have a better than average chance of a HECS (of course, it would still be very improbable otherwise it wouldn't be called historic).

 

But my happiness doesn't depend on a HECS... I enjoy both big and small events.

Yup, that's my point. Very good patterns yield the vast majority of our widespread 8"+ storms. Very good patterns can happen in a 2-week stretch in the middle of an otherwise lousy winter.

 

It takes an ideal pattern to get our locally historic storms, and those ideal patterns usually happen during legendary winters. 

[clskinsfan]

Not good....we'll see.

 

Not good? The ONLY negative I see in that article is the MJO not being anywhere close to 7 8 or 1. The rest of it looks great to me? Salivate on this for a bit.

 

[Ian]

I think a lot of us have had unrealistic expectations due the frequent occurrences of KU events starting around the turn of the century. Granted several of these events had little impact on this region but on the other hand many did. I recently did a post about how lucky most have been in terms of MECS and HECS since March 1993 but I don't remember which thread it was, may have been earlier in this one.

 

There are some interesting tidbits concerning KU's. Of the 54 storms listed the earliest was in 1956. From that first one in 1956 until 1992 there were 23 storms listed. From 1993 to current there are 31 listed, but out of those 31 storms, 26 of them took place from 2000 to current. In other words there have been 26 KU events since 2000. Bottom line is there has been almost as many KU events in the last 14 years as there was in the prior 44 year period. So we are clearly in the middle of some type of cycle producing large storms.

KUs are more likely now than they used to be.

 

Unless they're tornadoes after 2011.

 

Or hurricanes after 2005.

[andyhb]

KUs are more likely now than they used to be.

 

Unless they're tornadoes after 2011.

 

Or hurricanes after 2005.

 

USNothing.com

[Ian]

USNothing.com

Can't be a coincidence. :-/

[Deck Pic]

I'll be in Florida from 1/1 to 1/5....We should score something then....I think a nice 1-3/2-4" would relax everyone for a while....

[StudentOfClimatology]

I'll be in Florida from 1/1 to 1/5....We should score something then....I think a nice 1-3/2-4" would relax everyone for a while....

Ha, me too. No doubt something will happen.

[Fozz]

KUs are more likely now than they used to be.

 

Unless they're tornadoes after 2011.

 

Or hurricanes after 2005.

 

brutal post

 

though I'd be ok with the KU streak ending if it means the feast/famine cycle also ends. I think we'd handle it fairly well.... not sure about NYC weenies who are used to getting 40"+ every other year.

[Fozz]

I think a lot of us have had unrealistic expectations due the frequent occurrences of KU events starting around the turn of the century. Granted several of these events had little impact on this region but on the other hand many did. I recently did a post about how lucky most have been in terms of MECS and HECS since March 1993 but I don't remember which thread it was, may have been earlier in this one.

 

There are some interesting tidbits concerning KU's. Of the 54 storms listed the earliest was in 1956. From that first one in 1956 until 1992 there were 23 storms listed. From 1993 to current there are 31 listed, but out of those 31 storms, 26 of them took place from 2000 to current. In other words there have been 26 KU events since 2000. Bottom line is there has been almost as many KU events in the last 14 years as there was in the prior 44 year period. So we are clearly in the middle of some type of cycle producing large storms.

 

On the flip side, at the same time we've had this amazing streak of KU storms, central PA has been in a pretty rough snow drought, almost to the point of NYC being a better place for snow than UNV, which is kind of ridiculous. Psuhoffman has talked about it in several posts and said that the snow drought up there even hurts northern Maryland to some extent, so while this KU streak can't last forever, IMO, neither can central PA's snow drought. Sooner or later, the natural order of things will return.

[snowfan]

On the flip side, at the same time we've had this amazing streak of KU storms, central PA has been in a pretty rough snow drought, almost to the point of NYC being a better place for snow than UNV, which is kind of ridiculous. Psuhoffman has talked about it in several posts and said that the snow drought up there even hurts northern Maryland to some extent, so while this KU streak can't last forever, IMO, neither can central PA's snow drought. Sooner or later, the natural order of things will return.

Last 15 years at unv: 19.8,32.1,21.7,83.6,71.4,36.2,26.9,37.6,43.2,26.3,49.1,38.4,19,43.6 and 51.8 with an average of 40 which is 6" under their 30 yr avg and still 8" per more than Central Park has averaged over the same 15 years. This central pa snow drought isn't nearly as great as you guys would like to think.