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December Med/Long Range Disco


WinterWxLuvr

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Was shooting for New Yrish to get it underway still seems about right.

 

The Santabomb is certainly a deck shuffler.  Not sure anything can be trusted after Christmas until this Santabomb rolls through.  I imagine there will be a lot of spread in that time period for a while. 

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The Santabomb is certainly a deck shuffler.  Not sure anything can be trusted after Christmas until this Santabomb rolls through.  I imagine there will be a lot of spread in that time period for a while. 

 

True enough, the Santabomb (as big as it is!) will shake things up next week.  Lots of uncertainty on what happens thereafter, but so far I'm not overly encouraged by the evolution the models are showing in its wake.  The GFS (not sure of the Euro?), for instance, has Santabomb kind of rolling around into south-central Canada and the northern tier of the U.S., which pumps up heights over us.  Sure, there's a quasi-block immediately in its wake but it's like the main trough sets up in the middle of the country for a time.  And that in turn looks to f-up the pattern beyond then in the longer term, when not long ago it looked a lot more favorable.  I do not like the tendency to have the ridging setting up farther to the west in the Pacific (around the western half AK or so), combined with no north Atlantic blocking to speak of.  The glimmer of good news that I've noticed is that the GEFS mean is more insistent on the main trough being in the east with hints of -NAO blocking from what I can tell.  It looks colder, at least, if I'm reading it correctly.

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I said "at this range. " Do you really think there's no chance for it to drift north? I would expect it "at this range."

 

My thoughts on the winter in the snow prediction thread were that we could howl while southern sliders go below us, so, yes, I would say that it is certainly possible, and will not just assume systems  will come north in such a set-up.

 

Nice trolling from Fozz, by the way.

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The first push of cold air deep enough for any chance in these parts looks to happen somewhere around the 27th. Considering we are in a precip event regime every 3-4 days and the cold air doesn't look to shut off pac disturbances it's probably fair to say there will be something to track before the year is up. Until then it's going to be pretty boring in the snow tracking department. Which is fine.

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My thoughts on the winter in the snow prediction thread were that we could howl while southern sliders go below us, so, yes, I would say that it is certainly possible, and will not just assume systems  will come north in such a set-up.

 

Nice trolling from Fozz, by the way.

Agreed! If anything we have seen that systems seen to be southern sliders of big rainers this year. At this point though, models have sucked in the long range... so I would say that looks like an overrunning pattern for that area, but it may look totally different by tomorrow!

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The first push of cold air deep enough for any chance in these parts looks to happen somewhere around the 27th. Considering we are in a precip event regime every 3-4 days and the cold air doesn't look to shut off pac disturbances it's probably fair to say there will be something to track before the year is up. Until then it's going to be pretty boring in the snow tracking department. Which is fine.

A peaceful Christmas! My kids and wife will not be angry that I have to check the model runs in the middle of presents and lunch... WHO AM I KIDDING.. I still check them! I am such an addict!

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A peaceful Christmas! My kids and wife will not be angry that I have to check the model runs in the middle of presents and lunch... WHO AM I KIDDING.. I still check them! I am such an addict!

OMG.. been there done that.. I would bet that half the married men on this board almost got divorced during the Boxing Day disaster. 

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OMG.. been there done that.. I would bet that half the married men on this board almost got divorced during the Boxing Day disaster. 

 

I made my wife and daughter leave DC with me on Christmas day to avoid the "storm" so we could make it to Snowshoe for a Boxing Day reservation...

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Nice look on the gfs. Broad conus trough with the pv rotating around hudson from the 28th and beyond. Prime setup for overrunning events. Omega ridge in the GOA. Good for pac energy undercutting.

 

Agree.  This is one of the better looks overall in the deterministic run of the GFS of late (last few days).  Biggest difference I see is that the Santabomb doesn't drift west toward the north-central US/south-central Canada area.  It looks farther east.  Whether we can have cold air held in place when any Pac energy works its way across remains to be seen, but this to me looks more encouraging.  For now.

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