Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 And that is me believing the model on pattern change! Well Done ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 You're all going to look silly when we are rolling in the cold dry wind to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 You're all going to look silly when we are rolling in the cold dry wind to come. When is the IAN HECS pattern coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 When is the IAN HECS pattern coming.Was shooting for New Yrish to get it underway still seems about right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Was shooting for New Yrish to get it underway still seems about right. The Santabomb is certainly a deck shuffler. Not sure anything can be trusted after Christmas until this Santabomb rolls through. I imagine there will be a lot of spread in that time period for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 The Santabomb is certainly a deck shuffler. Not sure anything can be trusted after Christmas until this Santabomb rolls through. I imagine there will be a lot of spread in that time period for a while. True enough, the Santabomb (as big as it is!) will shake things up next week. Lots of uncertainty on what happens thereafter, but so far I'm not overly encouraged by the evolution the models are showing in its wake. The GFS (not sure of the Euro?), for instance, has Santabomb kind of rolling around into south-central Canada and the northern tier of the U.S., which pumps up heights over us. Sure, there's a quasi-block immediately in its wake but it's like the main trough sets up in the middle of the country for a time. And that in turn looks to f-up the pattern beyond then in the longer term, when not long ago it looked a lot more favorable. I do not like the tendency to have the ridging setting up farther to the west in the Pacific (around the western half AK or so), combined with no north Atlantic blocking to speak of. The glimmer of good news that I've noticed is that the GEFS mean is more insistent on the main trough being in the east with hints of -NAO blocking from what I can tell. It looks colder, at least, if I'm reading it correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Was shooting for New Yrish to get it underway still seems about right. Completely off topic (and banter, I know), but when I first glanced at this I thought you were saying "New Irish"!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 first time CFS2 has shown cold for JAN since JAN was "in range" on the model this post is solely for WinterWxLuvr since he puts so much stock in the CFS2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_11.png nice Dave I'll take my chances with being on the northern fringe of that setup at this range any day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 nice Dave I'll take my chances with being on the northern fringe of that setup at this range any day If you say so. Looks like a lot of howling over southern virginia cashing in while we get flurries up this way to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 If you say so. Looks like a lot of howling over southern virginia cashing in while we get flurries up this way to me. Would be totally fine with me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 If you say so. Looks like a lot of howling over southern virginia cashing in while we get flurries up this way to me.I said "at this range. " Do you really think there's no chance for it to drift north? I would expect it "at this range." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 I said "at this range. " Do you really think there's no chance for it to drift north? I would expect it "at this range." My thoughts on the winter in the snow prediction thread were that we could howl while southern sliders go below us, so, yes, I would say that it is certainly possible, and will not just assume systems will come north in such a set-up. Nice trolling from Fozz, by the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 The first push of cold air deep enough for any chance in these parts looks to happen somewhere around the 27th. Considering we are in a precip event regime every 3-4 days and the cold air doesn't look to shut off pac disturbances it's probably fair to say there will be something to track before the year is up. Until then it's going to be pretty boring in the snow tracking department. Which is fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 My thoughts on the winter in the snow prediction thread were that we could howl while southern sliders go below us, so, yes, I would say that it is certainly possible, and will not just assume systems will come north in such a set-up. Nice trolling from Fozz, by the way. Agreed! If anything we have seen that systems seen to be southern sliders of big rainers this year. At this point though, models have sucked in the long range... so I would say that looks like an overrunning pattern for that area, but it may look totally different by tomorrow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 The first push of cold air deep enough for any chance in these parts looks to happen somewhere around the 27th. Considering we are in a precip event regime every 3-4 days and the cold air doesn't look to shut off pac disturbances it's probably fair to say there will be something to track before the year is up. Until then it's going to be pretty boring in the snow tracking department. Which is fine. A peaceful Christmas! My kids and wife will not be angry that I have to check the model runs in the middle of presents and lunch... WHO AM I KIDDING.. I still check them! I am such an addict! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Nice look on the gfs. Broad conus trough with the pv rotating around hudson from the 28th and beyond. Prime setup for overrunning events. Omega ridge in the GOA. Good for pac energy undercutting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Nice look on the gfs. Broad conus trough with the pv rotating around hudson from the 28th and beyond. Prime setup for overrunning events. Omega ridge in the GOA. Good for pac energy undercutting. ala DT's post like I said, I'll take that look at this range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Nice look on the gfs. Broad conus trough with the pv rotating around hudson from the 28th and beyond. Prime setup for overrunning events. Omega ridge in the GOA. Good for pac energy undercutting. How can you see it? I can't even get to 204. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 How can you see it? I can't even get to 204. For the first time in modern history, ncep page is ahead of vendor sites. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 A peaceful Christmas! My kids and wife will not be angry that I have to check the model runs in the middle of presents and lunch... WHO AM I KIDDING.. I still check them! I am such an addict! OMG.. been there done that.. I would bet that half the married men on this board almost got divorced during the Boxing Day disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 OMG.. been there done that.. I would bet that half the married men on this board almost got divorced during the Boxing Day disaster. I made my wife and daughter leave DC with me on Christmas day to avoid the "storm" so we could make it to Snowshoe for a Boxing Day reservation... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Nice look on the gfs. Broad conus trough with the pv rotating around hudson from the 28th and beyond. Prime setup for overrunning events. Omega ridge in the GOA. Good for pac energy undercutting. Agree. This is one of the better looks overall in the deterministic run of the GFS of late (last few days). Biggest difference I see is that the Santabomb doesn't drift west toward the north-central US/south-central Canada area. It looks farther east. Whether we can have cold air held in place when any Pac energy works its way across remains to be seen, but this to me looks more encouraging. For now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Euro shows lp down to 964 this run just ne of MI. Impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Xmas eve has widespread 40+mph gusts through the area during late afternoon/early evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Xmas eve has widespread 40+mph gusts through the area during late afternoon/early evening. Blowpacalypse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Blowpacalypse Nice one! No doubt this storm blows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 I made my wife and daughter leave DC with me on Christmas day to avoid the "storm" so we could make it to Snowshoe for a Boxing Day reservation... you did well there right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 you did well there right? Yes, it was fresh powder for four days straight. Oh, you mean.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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