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December Med/Long Range Disco


WinterWxLuvr

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Christmas Day is starting to look like a breezy day with seasonal temps. Boy how things looked so much different just 3 days ago.

there is more than three days until Xmas so maybe time for complete change...I think its the Monday low that is crapping in the chili

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The pattern right after Christmas seemed a lot more favorable a couple of days ago too, now that's appearing far more uncertain (at least in the past few ops runs).

Still looks like there is some real cold waiting to be delivered but it's pushed back several days now. I was hoping the pattern would have been more established for the storm following Christmas around the 27th but like you said it's now uncertain but still time for some positive changes for that one.

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Doing us no favors too

For the last month we have had a generally good storm track and high location but a lack of any cold air available.  Just as the cold arrives we get a neverending low that wants to park itself right where we need high pressure.  Thus everytime a storm approaches from the west its drawn up to our west.  We traded one problem for another. 

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euro has another bomb going west of us just after christmas. 

It's closer to us though than the last couple Euro runs, which ran it up farther west.  GFS has been farther east with that track and has taken it south of us a couple times.  There's still some hope here I think. 

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Wraparound love from the Euro . Snow maps show 1-2 verbatim. This storm has jumped hundreds of miles in what ..2 runs. Stay tuned till next run could be off the coast by then .

 

At this point I'm just hoping that it will blast the Allegheny Plateau with snow so at least there will be good skiing out of it.  If it rains up there too that will really suck.

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Wraparound love from the Euro . Snow maps show 1-2 verbatim. This storm has jumped hundreds of miles in what ..2 runs. Stay tuned till next run could be off the coast by then .

Well I mean if the Euro can go from snow to no (this weekend), why can't it do the reverse with Santabomb? I'm feeling like it shouldn't be written off quite yet. Just a gut instinct--which most days is wrong.

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hmm euro is a good bit east with santabomb 

Wouldn't shock me,  The fact that the energy is too dispersed and coming out in peices hurt us Sunday but my help later on.  Also fits with the trend of models over amplifying lows in the day 10 range.  We also have seen a tendancy for coastal track so far this season, all of that argues things may end up more towards a coastal over that inland bomb idea, but I still doubt it does us much good. 

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It's closer to us though than the last couple Euro runs, which ran it up farther west. GFS has been farther east with that track and has taken it south of us a couple times. There's still some hope here I think.

I compared last night's and today's euro h5 vort panels. There is zero similarity between the 2 for the after xmas thing. Last night it dug the vort all the way down the west coast and never even ejected it. I'm not even sure hope is the right word to use. There is zero clarity tbh and ops runs are going to move all over. Anything is possible.

Comparing today @ hr 204 and 0z @ hr 216 shows 2 completely different trough configs in the conus. IMO- today's op was a nice move towards the gfs.

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Wouldn't shock me,  The fact that the energy is too dispersed and coming out in peices hurt us Sunday but my help later on.  Also fits with the trend of models over amplifying lows in the day 10 range.  We also have seen a tendancy for coastal track so far this season, all of that argues things may end up more towards a coastal over that inland bomb idea, but I still doubt it does us much good. 

I'd have to venture that it would do us more good than no precip at all will do this weekend.

 

This weekend was a pretty big bust all around, more so with the Euro.  If we were to get a similar bust in the next 7 days, I think literally anything would be on the table.

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I compared last night's and today's euro h5 vort panels. There is zero similarity between the 2 for the after xmas thing. Last night it dug the vort all the way down the west coast and never even ejected it. I'm not even sure hope is the right word to use. There is zero clarity tbh and ops runs are going to move all over. Anything is possible.

Comparing today @ hr 204 and 0z @ hr 216 shows 2 completely different trough configs in the conus. IMO- today's op was a nice move towards the gfs.

That speaks volumes.

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I'd have to venture that it would do us more good than no precip at all will do this weekend.

 

This weekend was a pretty big bust all around, more so with the Euro.  If we were to get a similar bust in the next 7 days, I think literally anything would be on the table.

the problem is the reason for the bust sunday is also messing up the pattern behind it.  The trough in the east that would have created the storm threat Sunday is not digging nearly as much and the pac jet is flattening everything out.  That means the cold that would have been available for the xmas period isnt there.  The mean trough axis has pulled back into the midwest.  Even if we continue to get these coastal low developments there is really no cold available, it would take a bomb and some luck, kinda like the 2002 storm to have it work out.  It can happen, that wasnt really a good setup for snow in our area but the storm bombed out perfectly and we got a surprise, but even that had more cold around in front of it.  The odds are really long.

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the problem is the reason for the bust sunday is also messing up the pattern behind it.  The trough in the east that would have created the storm threat Sunday is not digging nearly as much and the pac jet is flattening everything out.  That means the cold that would have been available for the xmas period isnt there.  The mean trough axis has pulled back into the midwest.  Even if we continue to get these coastal low developments there is really no cold available, it would take a bomb and some luck, kinda like the 2002 storm to have it work out.  It can happen, that wasnt really a good setup for snow in our area but the storm bombed out perfectly and we got a surprise, but even that had more cold around in front of it.  The odds are really long.

 

That pacific jet is really becoming annoying. If I was still in Reno, it would be awesome...but now...not so much.

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