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December Med/Long Range Disco


WinterWxLuvr

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Getting a tad annoyed with the persistent low pressure just NE of Greenland(NW of Siberia). Its still showing up in the means and as long as it sits there, the AO is going to be neutral at best. There are other potential problems going forward as well, with the possible breakdown of the PNA ridge that has been showing up in some guidance. Not too worried about that yet.. But until we can get heights to build over the Barents Sea region, the PV is gonna tend to stay more intact, and sustained cold is going to continue to be elusive.

 

 

post-1005-0-06040500-1418907231_thumb.gi

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Getting a tad annoyed with the persistent low pressure just NE of Greenland(NW of Siberia). Its still showing up in the means and as long as it sits there, the AO is going to be neutral at best. There are other potential problems going forward as well, with the possible breakdown of the PNA ridge that has been showing up in some guidance. Not too worried about that yet.. But until we can get heights to build over the Barents Sea region, the PV is gonna tend to stay more intact, and sustained cold is going to continue to be elusive.

 

 

attachicon.gifAO.gif

need to go 11 days not only 7

500hgt_comp_sup814.gif

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need to go 11 days not only 7

500hgt_comp_sup814.gif

Looks better. Hopefully its a true trend to dislodge that low pressure. But it remains to be seen if it actually verifies or if that area of lower heights hangs on. It is still there to some degree, and that is the very location where we want higher heights to be for a sustained, stable -AO. We have seen some pretty good looks in the guidance 10 days or 2 weeks out, but lets see if we actually get the highest height anomalies building pole-ward instead of across Canada.

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I don't see how it's beneficial to look at a centered mean for a date in the future. To do that you have to use modeled upper air patterns, right? Excuse me if I don't have a lot of faith in 10 to 15 day modeled patterns, even if they are ensembles. I would think looking at analogs to a mean centered in the past would be a better predictor of what's most likely to come.

 

That's what CPC does, and looking at their dates from yesterday, I don't see any that stand out as being preludes to great winter weather.

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I don't see how it's beneficial to look at a centered mean for a date in the future. To do that you have to use modeled upper air patterns, right? Excuse me if I don't have a lot of faith in 10 to 15 day modeled patterns, even if they are ensembles. I would think looking at analogs to a mean centered in the past would be a better predictor of what's most likely to come.

 

That's what CPC does, and looking at their dates from yesterday, I don't see any that stand out as being preludes to great winter weather.

I tend to agree. I dont think there is any doubt we can get some ops and have storms to track, but I am looking for that stable cold pattern with an active southern jet where we cant help but get a few hits. It does look better for early Jan with a forecasted decline in the AO and NAO, but yes it is modeled, not reality, and how long will it last if it does verify? I am all about the PV destruction. It sounds cool and it worked marvelously last winter, and I have a short memory.

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Looking down the line it's pretty apparent (barring a surprise) that snow prospects are pretty bleak through Christmas. The evolution of the Xmas eve storm and subsequent height patterns will determine if our chances improve or remain bleak. All guidance is showing another storm/piece of energy approaching several days after Xmas.

 

Euro OP/ENS and PGFS are advertising a ridge forming along the east coast that would surely keep the storm west. GFS Op/ENS and Gem ens are showing a more blocked/confluent look during that period. 

 

Euro op/ens seems to really want to dig a trough out west behind the xmas eve storm with rising heights along the east coast. Is this right? Or is the euro getting dig happy in the long range? IMHO- the ridge idea is probably overdone but that doesn't mean we will easily have enough blocked flow/confluence above us to keep anything below us.

 

There is no consensus on which direction we go but as the days go by, the main thing to focus on is whether the ridge idea or blocked flow/confluence gains support. 

 

 

ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_10.png

 

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_37.pnggem-ens_z500a_nhem_37.png

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Can Mon/Tues turn into something?

No hope for that one...other than it scoots offshore and we stay dry. However the Xmas eve storm could be worth watching, esp for far inland areas, as the trend in the guidance has been to weaken the primary GL low and form a secondary, stronger low somewhere over the MA. If that trends a bit further east, it could get interesting for N&W areas.

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