Ian Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 GFS gives us 0 snowflakes through 384. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 GFS gives us 0 snowflakes through 384.Let me know when it's time to root for the shut-out.MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Getting a tad annoyed with the persistent low pressure just NE of Greenland(NW of Siberia). Its still showing up in the means and as long as it sits there, the AO is going to be neutral at best. There are other potential problems going forward as well, with the possible breakdown of the PNA ridge that has been showing up in some guidance. Not too worried about that yet.. But until we can get heights to build over the Barents Sea region, the PV is gonna tend to stay more intact, and sustained cold is going to continue to be elusive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Stormy pattern showing up long range on the models. Although they dont produce on the latest model runs. I would think with climo alone. One of those storms has make it snow in our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Getting a tad annoyed with the persistent low pressure just NE of Greenland(NW of Siberia). Its still showing up in the means and as long as it sits there, the AO is going to be neutral at best. There are other potential problems going forward as well, with the possible breakdown of the PNA ridge that has been showing up in some guidance. Not too worried about that yet.. But until we can get heights to build over the Barents Sea region, the PV is gonna tend to stay more intact, and sustained cold is going to continue to be elusive. AO.gif need to go 11 days not only 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 ^That look and this look. -EPO/+PNA/-NAO/-AO. Definitely winter cancel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 need to go 11 days not only 7 Looks better. Hopefully its a true trend to dislodge that low pressure. But it remains to be seen if it actually verifies or if that area of lower heights hangs on. It is still there to some degree, and that is the very location where we want higher heights to be for a sustained, stable -AO. We have seen some pretty good looks in the guidance 10 days or 2 weeks out, but lets see if we actually get the highest height anomalies building pole-ward instead of across Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 ^That look and this look. -EPO/+PNA/-NAO/-AO. Definitely winter cancel thats the other thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 +PNA is favorable, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 +PNA is favorable, right? Yes. That's a western NA ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 So I've not had much time lately with work and a 6 week old and what time I had I used keeping tabs on the 21st threat. Now that the nail is in that coffin, excuse my ignorance, but what happened to the 24th? A few days back that looked promising, I stopped paying attention and now it's an über lakes cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 18, 2014 Author Share Posted December 18, 2014 I don't see how it's beneficial to look at a centered mean for a date in the future. To do that you have to use modeled upper air patterns, right? Excuse me if I don't have a lot of faith in 10 to 15 day modeled patterns, even if they are ensembles. I would think looking at analogs to a mean centered in the past would be a better predictor of what's most likely to come. That's what CPC does, and looking at their dates from yesterday, I don't see any that stand out as being preludes to great winter weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 I don't see how it's beneficial to look at a centered mean for a date in the future. To do that you have to use modeled upper air patterns, right? Excuse me if I don't have a lot of faith in 10 to 15 day modeled patterns, even if they are ensembles. I would think looking at analogs to a mean centered in the past would be a better predictor of what's most likely to come. That's what CPC does, and looking at their dates from yesterday, I don't see any that stand out as being preludes to great winter weather. I tend to agree. I dont think there is any doubt we can get some ops and have storms to track, but I am looking for that stable cold pattern with an active southern jet where we cant help but get a few hits. It does look better for early Jan with a forecasted decline in the AO and NAO, but yes it is modeled, not reality, and how long will it last if it does verify? I am all about the PV destruction. It sounds cool and it worked marvelously last winter, and I have a short memory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Looking down the line it's pretty apparent (barring a surprise) that snow prospects are pretty bleak through Christmas. The evolution of the Xmas eve storm and subsequent height patterns will determine if our chances improve or remain bleak. All guidance is showing another storm/piece of energy approaching several days after Xmas. Euro OP/ENS and PGFS are advertising a ridge forming along the east coast that would surely keep the storm west. GFS Op/ENS and Gem ens are showing a more blocked/confluent look during that period. Euro op/ens seems to really want to dig a trough out west behind the xmas eve storm with rising heights along the east coast. Is this right? Or is the euro getting dig happy in the long range? IMHO- the ridge idea is probably overdone but that doesn't mean we will easily have enough blocked flow/confluence above us to keep anything below us. There is no consensus on which direction we go but as the days go by, the main thing to focus on is whether the ridge idea or blocked flow/confluence gains support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 18, 2014 Author Share Posted December 18, 2014 Can Mon/Tues turn into something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Can Mon/Tues turn into something? No hope for that one...other than it scoots offshore and we stay dry. However the Xmas eve storm could be worth watching, esp for far inland areas, as the trend in the guidance has been to weaken the primary GL low and form a secondary, stronger low somewhere over the MA. If that trends a bit further east, it could get interesting for N&W areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Mjo seems to like phases 3-5 this year. Not forecasted to be anywhere near phases 8 or 1 anytime soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Mjo seems to like phases 3-5 this year. Not forecasted to be anywhere near phases 8 or 1 anytime soon. That may be a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Parallel GFS really strengthens the Monday/Tuesday coastal as it passes our latitude. 996mb south of Long Island. Wonder if that could have some implications for Christmas Eve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Santabomb looking less impressive on the 12z GPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Santabomb looking less impressive on the 12z GPS The Mon/Tue system must be messing with the set up for Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Can Mon/Tues turn into something? Yes, tears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 para is interesting.. tho it has like 5 lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 para is interesting.. tho it has like 5 lows. 850s are also torching of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 oh wait im looking at the wrong storm on the para. holy hell. monday sys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 And there's a storm after Santabomb....that cuts west of us. January will be rockin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Santabomb looking less impressive on the 12z GPS Glorified frontal passage? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 oh wait im looking at the wrong storm on the para. holy hell. monday sys Maybe we can get that one to work for us re: santabomb (on the para) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Christmas Day is starting to look like a breezy day with seasonal temps. Boy how things looked so much different just 3 days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Are the gfs and para even remotely related? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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