Bob Chill Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Smart. The bomb evolution will yield some wild solutions late in the game. This could be fun. Or heartbreaking. I'm rooting for a sub 970 passing anywhere within 150 miles. It's not gonna snow but it would sure be fun regardless. When is the last time we had a sub 970 within 150 miles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Damn is the 18z GFS eye candy or what....Think the EURO is overdoing the energy being dumped out west which is thus raising heights to the east. Still liking the late Dec period/1st 2 weeks of January period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 I'm more excited about the bomb than anything else at this point, haha. We're due for some dynamic thrill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Damn is the 18z GFS eye candy or what....Think the EURO is overdoing the energy being dumped out west which is thus raising heights to the east. Still liking the late Dec period/1st 2 weeks of January period 2 feet of pattern right there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 2 feet of pattern right there [/quote Sometimes you gotta lose the battle to win the war. We all need to route for the Christmas eve nuke ripping west of the east coast. That block over the Davis straights shakes hands with the -EPO. If that isn't Classic I don't know what is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Think it would be wise to not bank on anything the models depict further that 6 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Think it would be wise to not bank on anything the models depict further that 6 days out. True, but I'll go out on a limb and say this one is locked in some fashion.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 I'll stand on that limb with you Bob. Pretty strong signal showing. Hopefully after this weekend we can start looking forward to bigger storrms and cold getting more involved. long range signals growing stronger...and getting inside 10 days. Sure hope so. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Does anyone have a map of the 18z gps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 18, 2014 Author Share Posted December 18, 2014 True, but I'll go out on a limb and say this one is locked in some fashion.... I think the fashion is the question right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 18z GFS and 18z Para both shifted the Christmas Eve track significantly west, looks like the low passes right over DC. Obviously still not a track for snow, but interesting. Edit: Already been discussed....sorry East? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 East? LOL yes, that post was dumb on two different levels. About to delete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 LOL yes, that post was dumb on two different levels. About to delete. I am trying to be more clinical as I look at the set up at 500mb..looking for clues as to what would make it trend either west or east in future runs...but I am failing to figure it out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Wow, GEFS mean @ 180hrs is 979mb..can't ever recall seeing that before. Nearly every GEFS member hits us with good dynamics and tight gradients..I'm all in for a good show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Wow, GEFS mean @ 180hrs is 979mb..can't ever recall seeing that before. Nearly every GEFS member hits us with good dynamics and tight gradients..I'm all in for a good show. If this were to trend more SE would that impact the pressure/strength? To trend more favorable for some frozen for our region it needs to dig more obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 that's pretty wild. would be one of the bigger wind events we've seen in a while. If there's one thing we do right, it's wind. Always delivers... Lame wind delivers around here. Big sustained wind outside the rare TS usually busts like ice storms. If the models are spitting out serious wind without really anomalous surrounding conditions, I wouldn't buy it. Maybe this monster low will deliver but I doubt it. Like a modeled ice storm in February with temps 30-31. Won't be a big deal. Some random dude in VA will post pics of a tree that crushed his neighbors house due to a "gust" and everyone will get in a tizzy about the big winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Already hearing 1978 comparisons... LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Lame wind delivers around here. Big sustained wind outside the rare TS usually busts like ice storms. If the models are spitting out serious wind without really anomalous surrounding conditions, I wouldn't buy it. Maybe this monster low will deliver but I doubt it. Like a modeled ice storm in February with temps 30-31. Won't be a big deal. Some random dude in VA will post pics of a tree that crushed his neighbors house due to a "gust" and everyone will get in a tizzy about the big winds. I don't know about this. It does tend to perhaps be a bit less than expected always. But 40-55mph gusts are still really impressive for most people - especially outside of a thunderstorm. If one or two gusts hit 60mph that's pretty darn strong (severe criteria). A storm of that magnitude I feel like could bring that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Already hearing 1978 comparisons... LOL That's ridiculous. That 1978 storm would make this storm look like our storm for this weekend....if there is one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 The February 2014 windstorm was impressive..IAD hit 61mph. That one was a 980mb low in Central PA, so this one could be bigger if we can manage a sub-970 low in the same area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Does anyone have a map of the 18z gps My GPS is broken sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 that's pretty wild. would be one of the bigger wind events we've seen in a while.Due to the wind depiction per the Euro, I have taken all of my outdoor decorations inside and have purchased a portable generator. I hope that is not a waste like the snowblower and salt that I purchased based on the Euro from 3 days ago.MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 I don't know about this. It does tend to perhaps be a bit less than expected always. But 40-55mph gusts are still really impressive for most people - especially outside of a thunderstorm. If one or two gusts hit 60mph that's pretty darn strong (severe criteria). A storm of that magnitude I feel like could bring that. Like I said, some random spot will supposedly record a 60 MPH gust and we'll call this a big windstorm. The rest of us will have drizzle and breezes. Sustained big wind is really hard to get around here. Like harder than a HECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Like I said, some random spot will supposedly record a 60 MPH gust and we'll call this a big windstorm. The rest of us will have drizzle and breezes. Sustained big wind is really hard to get around here. Like harder than a HECS. 970 MB lows in PA are pretty rare too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Like I said, some random spot will supposedly record a 60 MPH gust and we'll call this a big windstorm. The rest of us will have drizzle and breezes. Sustained big wind is really hard to get around here. Like harder than a HECS. I see what you mean, I guess my location is just great for wind. I'm fairly confident that I'll record a 50+ mph wind gust. I could be that random possibly fake report of severe wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Seriously thinking about chasing #santabomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 00z GFS isn't nearly as fun locally..amplitude of the lead wave is reduced inititially which delays the phase between the lead & secondary low. Hopefully just the GFS being..itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Seriously thinking about chasing #santabomb It's a long drive to Minneapolis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 It's a long drive to Minneapolis. Or bumble**** Canada if the GFS is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 lol.. gfs and right. still funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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