CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Good support for the op but I think a bit east? Lotta good members mixed in there. Good run The mean was better for I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Good support for the op but I think a bit east? Lotta good members mixed in there. Good run Yeah, mean is east of the OP but there's definite support in there of the OP's track. A lot of strong lows in there too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 The mean was better for I-95. Thank you. That's what I was thinking but still quite a few tucked solutions. I suppose climo alone would favor a just off the coast track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Wow.... Just saw the most recent Euro and the dreaded snowfall maps. 8-12 + inches from the Shenandoah Valley north east to DC and Baltimore. We need to carefully decide who will start the "event thread" so as not to screw it up. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Wow.... Just saw the most recent Euro and the dreaded snowfall maps. 8-12 + inches from the Shenandoah Valley north east to DC and Baltimore. We need to carefully decide who will start the "event thread" so as not to screw it up. MDstorm DT? He has been lucky so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnis Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Be honest how useful was the post "enjoy your 7 day snow"? Sent from my iPhone If you read his post in context to his numerous other posts, then it reads as very reasonable to me. Having realistic expectations based on experience is not a buzz Kilington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 And only 5 days to go before we know how this storm will actually unfold. Wont be boring around here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 And only 5 days to go before we know how this storm will actually unfold. Wont be boring around here.. Could be earlier than that... storm could disappear tonight and never come back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Makes sense overall. I'm not fishing for a foot IMBY that's for sure. We've still got a lot of time tho. I think many treat this range like it's getting close to a lock when it's really still on the very edge of being useful.I agree to 100%. At this range we need to lean more on the ensembles and listen to the people here who are good at pattern recognition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 No sleep for the next 2 weeks I see. The 850 maps for the first storm are how we get burried out here. That is a classic storm track for the Shenendoah Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 The parallel like the xmas eve storm though it still has temp issues with the low in the lakes region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 The parallel like the xmas eve storm though it still has temp issues with the low in the lakes region. That dumb low is showing up on ops and ens. It's pretty prominent on the 12z euro ens considering the lead. And it makes sense considering the type of pattern change going on in Canada. Hopefully timing keeps the influence at bay. Total wag but I kinda doubt it goes poof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 That dumb low is showing up on ops and ens. It's pretty prominent on the 12z euro ens considering the lead. And it makes sense considering the type of pattern change going on in Canada. Hopefully timing keeps the influence at bay. Total wag but I kinda doubt it goes poof. I believe at 10 day + range there was a lakes low showing up for the 12/20-12/21 storm too. That has been replaced by the High pressure thanks to the 50/50. Maybe we can get rid of that lakes low on the 12/25 storm once we get it into the shorter leads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 That dumb low is showing up on ops and ens. It's pretty prominent on the 12z euro ens considering the lead. And it makes sense considering the type of pattern change going on in Canada. Hopefully timing keeps the influence at bay. Total wag but I kinda doubt it goes poof. ensembles have a pressing south of the cold from Canada actually looked better (more encouraging) to me looking at the 10 day loop than when looking individually http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2014121412/ecmwf-ens_T850_us.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 The 50/50 to me look better but the shortwave down south looks more robust.... Highzenberg, just a friendly reminder for the storm, we have a separate thread designated for it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Not able to look yet today. Is the Christmas storm still showing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 All I know is the LR GFS is fairly epic....I don't see a snow event around X-mas, none of the models have anything. My guess is after the 20/21st event we'll have one more rain storm that will usher in the new pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 The european ensemble analogs for the D+11 to 15 period have 2 storms. One for the fantasy lovers, Dec 20, 2009, one day after the big one and the other was December 1989. I think I ended up with 8 inches with that one here in northern Calvert. Anyway, the 5-day mean has a good look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Thank you both! So no models show a storm, but the pattern is favorable so something could show up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Whoa. Yes please. Pattern is ripe post-Xmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Whoa. Yes please. Pattern is ripe post-Xmas. f252-2.gif The -NAO looks a little better...-EPO too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 That is pretty hot. We'll cash in even around here in the next few weeks if not sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Whoa. Yes please. Pattern is ripe post-Xmas. Can't wait to see the analogs for that setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Christmas eve looks nice on the euro if big cold rain is your thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 GFS is showing a large Miller B (?) system on the 30th, nice to look at, at least, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Christmas eve looks nice on the euro if big cold rain is your thing I mentioned this earlier, the X-mas event looks like a big time cold front that ushers in the new winter pattern. You can tell the EURO 240 hours is about to tank the AO, pattern should be amazing come the 27th on.....I'm extremely pumped up right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 here comes the hecs pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 I mentioned this earlier, the X-mas event looks like a big time cold front that ushers in the new winter pattern. You can tell the EURO 240 hours is about to tank the AO, pattern should be amazing come the 27th on.....I'm extremely pumped up right now. Yes the pattern takes off after christmas if you believe the ensembles. The GEFS really goes go town with a strong west based -NAO. Would be nice to sneak in the storm for the 21st but man the end of Dec and early Jan look great at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 here comes the hecs pattern HM likes January 5-10 for a big storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 LR (post hr240) EC ens have shown some ridging in the the Gulf and extending across Fl. Just curious if someone a little more knowledgeable could clue me in on what type of sensible weather that h5 look would produce. (hr360 from 12z run) I would think that with the look of a -AO and -NAO there would be a heck of a fight setting up somewhere. I know future runs may lose this feature but I am curious nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.