usedtobe Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 12Z GFS is back to the cutter/maybe miller b look. Lots of chaos showing up in the model runs. last night's ukmet was so suppressed it had no low, The 06Z GFS had a suppressed look ot the low with it scooting out off the NC coast. The Euro had a nice low and was in the same ballpark as the previous run. Last night's euro ensembles had all three solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 12Z GFS is back to the cutter/maybe miller b look. Lots of chaos showing up in the model runs. last night's ukmet was so suppressed it had no low, The 06Z GFS had a suppressed look ot the low with it scooting out off the NC coast. The Euro had a nice low and was in the same ballpark as the previous run. Last night's euro ensembles had all three solutions. This is for the Dec. 21 event, I take it? (Sorry, getting them confused, between that one and the possibilities around/after Christmas). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 We're a snow town now (or at least N+W of I-95). It's gonna happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 GooFuS is acting like a stubborn child for this next weekends storm. At hr 132 you have a sub 1010mb low in the ArkLaTech region and a 1031mb High in Ontario, looking juicy at this point. But the GFS then runs the system NE/NNE right into the HP. So by hour 156 you got a weak and mangled 1013mb low in Ohio and drizzle for the Mid Atlantic. By hr 168 their is a 1015mb low near OBX forming, doesn't get much stronger than that. I know it's the GooFuS but can anyone make sense out of this? Now for the Christmas Storm, hr 216 is 1006mb on the Southern Tip of LA, 1027mb HP in Northern NY, hr 228 is 1003mb near Paducah, hr 240 is 997mb near Kalamazoo, MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 This is for the Dec. 21 event, I take it? (Sorry, getting them confused, between that one and the possibilities around/after Christmas). Yes, but the aprallel has a track that would offer snow. it takes the low off the carolina coast nad has a very favorable vort track to give us snow. Lots of model chaos. It may also be a good test of the parallel. Our snowstorm prior to thanksgiving the parallel was supressed with the low run after run. It was the last model to come north. This time, the GFs is way north but last night's euro and today's parallel are decent runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Yes, but the aprallel has a track that would offer snow. it takes the low off the carolina coast nad has a very favorable vort track to give us snow. Lots of model chaos. It may also be a good test of the parallel. Our snowstorm prior to thanksgiving the parallel was supressed with the low run after run. It was the last model to come north. This time, the GFs is way north but last night's euro and today's parallel are decent runs. Right or wrong, the para has definitely been close to the euro through d4 compared to the gfs. I think the resolution is helping with smaller scale features in the short-med range. Of course this same resolution could cause more problems further out in time. I'll hug the para for now unless the euro looks better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 GooFuS is acting like a stubborn child for this next weekends storm. At hr 132 you have a sub 1010mb low in the ArkLaTech region and a 1031mb High in Ontario, looking juicy at this point. But the GFS then runs the system NE/NNE right into the HP. So by hour 156 you got a weak and mangled 1013mb low in Ohio and drizzle for the Mid Atlantic. By hr 168 their is a 1015mb low near OBX forming, doesn't get much stronger than that. I know it's the GooFuS but can anyone make sense out of this? Lot of it is chaos. If you look at the 500h pattern near nova scotia and the 500h pattern associated with the trough associated with the storm you'll see big differences between the parallel and the GFS in the hanlding of both features. Those differences are what cuases the low track to the so different. Some of the euro ens members from last night had the gfs look, they were in the minority but suggested it was a viable solution. of course so is the euro and parallel and they both are a tad more skillful than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treckasec Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Was there some kind of good snow event around that time or something? Yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 LOl, the GGEM still has the system so weak and suppressed we get nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 LOl, the GGEM still has the system so weak and suppressed we get nothing. I mean, this goes without saying, but if there's a model that's going to have something and be favorable and one that shows nothing...I like where we're sitting right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Heh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Heh... All I can see on that map is a big ugly hairy green dude grinning ear to ear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 All I can see on that map is a big ugly hairy green dude grinning ear to ear If I lived in Missouri, I'd be loving that pattern! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 If I lived in Missouri, I'd be loving that pattern! At least the gfs thinks the nao might go slightly negative a bit later in the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 ^ There we go (slow clap). Been a LONG time since we've seen one of those babies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 what else is new .. and thee is NO chance zero... that OP GFS tuns out to be correct more proof? the 13km GFS is much more like the euro runs 12Z GFS is back to the cutter/maybe miller b look. Lots of chaos showing up in the model runs. last night's ukmet was so suppressed it had no low, The 06Z GFS had a suppressed look ot the low with it scooting out off the NC coast. The Euro had a nice low and was in the same ballpark as the previous run. Last night's euro ensembles had all three solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 There is the DT big event for 12/25... the short wave over OR NV / North Calif SHOULD act as akicker and drive the negtive tilted s/w over MO ARK further east Heh... 12142014 12Z P GFS 240 gfsp_z500a_namer_41.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 There is the DT big event for 12/25... the short wave over OR NV / North Calif SHOULD act as akicker and drive the negtive tilted s/w over MO ARK further east I'm flying back from vaca sunday. I'm rooting for the 12-25 dt storm. Seems like maybe more cold air around anyway. I'm willing to wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 looking at day 4 of the Euro on Plymouth, I will be surprised if it doesn't go south this run could be wrong, but does have a strong 5H Low in SE Canada and ridging to the northwest of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Euro looks really good at 135 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Looks like incoming bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Midlevels look the best since this threat appeared. This is going to be a good one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 REGULAR GFS vs 13KM GFS ABOUT DEC 20-21 EAST COAST THREAT This is one of the reasons why I hate the operational GFS past 84 hours for East coast storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Looks like incoming bomb. one would think with this surface map on Day 6 http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=namer&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=sfc&va=slp&in=2&pl=cf&ft=6day&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=ecmwf≤=850&va=strm&in=2&pl=ln&ft=6day&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Getting railed already at 150 and the low is in SC. This run will be a stem-winder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Snowing @ 18z sat. 850's right @ 0c through 95 though. Surface below freezing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 990 of NJ coast. Absolutely hammered. HECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 156 HRS Low is over Va Beach 162 hrs the 12z sunday euro has the Low right over or Just se of Cape May nj monster snow hit for WVA WESTERN VA western half of MD ALL PA nw NJ much of interior se NY all of New England west/ north of I-95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 yikes! day 7 http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=namer&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=sfc&va=slp&in=2&pl=cf&ft=7day&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=ecmwf≤=850&va=strm&in=2&pl=ln&ft=6day&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Midlevels look the best since this threat appeared. This is going to be a good one. There's a 1021 H over eastern NY state at hour 150 - I don't recall seeing that there on previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.