yoda Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 GEFS mean has same idea as OP... but not as strong and a tad further west in track up East Coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 GEFS mean has same idea as OP... but not as strong and a tad further west in track up East Coast Pretty good support for such a long lead time. Would be nice... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 GFS is nice looking Christmas eve on through the run. White Christmas with more to follow. Not saying verbatim, just more data to add to the growing consensus for a decent pattern for snow lovers after the 24th. GEFS mean has same idea as OP... but not as strong and a tad further west in track up East Coast Indeed. Seems a couple of days earlier with that particular event compared to earlier, but that's probably splitting hairs at this point and might not mean much. Key is, I suppose, the signal is there (and pretty strongly at this point) for that general time period. Gotta like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Day 12 is the new day 10 is the new day 7 is the new day 5. Too bad it's all garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 True Ian... but if we buy today's 12z EURO run... its only 7-8 days away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Highs have located well but no real cold air in Canada so even perfect position is less than perfect with no cold air. Going to be different on Tuesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Euro smokes Deep Creek/Canaan.....Even the western burbs, especially the far western burbs do pretty well.....definitely west from 12z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Euro smokes Deep Creek/Canaan.....Even the western burbs, especially the far western burbs do pretty well.....definitely west from 12z... Yea, damn that is one sweet looking H5, if it would have come out a bit faster and didn't close off as fast that would have been pretty awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Euro smokes Deep Creek/Canaan.....Even the western burbs, especially the far western burbs do pretty well.....definitely west from 12z... Does that mean rain for DCA? 850s looked fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Yea, damn that is one sweet looking H5, if it would have come out a bit faster and didn't close off as fast that would have been pretty awesome. it's day 6-7, so anything can happen, but I hope something does happen, because it is a weekend and many of us can chase, who otherwise can't/won't take off from work, especially for an event that might not be a lock for huge snow....I want to get snow...but if I can drive 2 hours for 8-12"+, it is a no-brainer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Does that mean rain for DCA? 850s looked fine we get rain to snow....we are kind of on the eastern edge...but it doesn't really matter at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 we get rain to snow....we are kind of on the eastern edge...but it doesn't really matter at all Ok, thanks. 12z EURO had the same idea (us being on eastern edge of below zero 850s) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Ensemble mean lends some support to the OP for an interior snow storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Ensemble mean lends some support to the OP for an interior snow storm...thank you for sharing. ..crazy late!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 14, 2014 Author Share Posted December 14, 2014 GFS and para both seem to be trending toward the Euro for next weekend. Both are a little faster than the Euro (12-18 hrs ?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 GFS and para both seem to be trending toward the Euro for next weekend. Both are a little faster than the Euro (12-18 hrs ?) That's what is leading to the different ultimate evolution though, right? The Euro allows that little piece of northern energy to drop in and phase, leading to a more robust solution.The GFS "outruns" it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 I will probably be some place in the mountains of western VA for Xmas. Hopefully I will see some snow there. These potential storms around the 21st and 25th are pattern transition jobs, and would take near perfect evolution/timing to get a snowstorm for the coastal plain. The real deal cold looks to arrive after Xmas and then the odds go up with colder air in place, and hopefully a developing a block, for a more favorable storm track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 GFS and para both seem to be trending toward the Euro for next weekend. Both are a little faster than the Euro (12-18 hrs ?) Xbox is a southern slider and just gives us some light precip. Not the worst scenario for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 THe euro has about a 1/5 of its members still will a miller b look but the rest have the low tracking to our south in some manner. Some have the look of the 06Z GFS and some look like the operational euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Nice analogs starting to show up. Top D11 analog is within 2 days of the Xmas Eve snowstorm of 1966. That's a real good look for mean which explains why it's spitting out some nice analogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Wes, one thing I noticed about the last nights euro is that more members are showing a more easterly track with a stripe of decent precip through tn/ky/central va. The low tucking and tracking too close to the coast or just inland also gained support.....which won't be a good solution for cities/closer burbs Mean precip bumped back up a little. Around .35 from what I can tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 14, 2014 Author Share Posted December 14, 2014 Xbox is a southern slider and just gives us some light precip. Not the worst scenario for us. Yep, and it's kept pretty much that same solution for 24 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Wxusaf, notice the new addition to the cpc analogs from today's update? Heh, mappy seems to be willing it back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Wxusaf, notice the new addition to the cpc analogs from today's update? Heh, mappy seems to be willing it back. There are three very nice analogs in the mix. it's a really nice pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 There are three very nice analogs in the mix. it's a really nice pattern. Yes it sure is. Nice to see start becoming more real than a 15 day chase. I took a quick look through the gefs and euro members for Xmas time frame. A lot of rain solutions showing up. Obviously way too far out to worry much but rain on Xmas always takes a little magic off the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Wxusaf, notice the new addition to the cpc analogs from today's update? Heh, mappy seems to be willing it back. 20091220 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Yes it sure is. Nice to see start becoming more real than a 15 day chase. I took a quick look through the gefs and euro members for Xmas time frame. A lot of rain solutions showing up. Obviously way too far out to worry much but rain on Xmas always takes a little magic off the table. The analogs from the European ens mean do not show the same storms and in fact have a rainier look than the CPC analogs. Glad I'm not doing an outlook until later in the week. If the euro holds the course through tomorrow I'll probably do an article on the weekend threat especially if some of the blogosphere people start posting wxbell euro snowmaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Very nice pattern developing with possibly 3 NW Gulf Coastal lows developing near the Holidays. The pattern looks very promising as we enter the New Year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Very nice pattern developing with possibly 3 NW Gulf Coastal lows developing near the Holidays. The pattern looks very promising as we enter the New Year. Srain, good to see you stopping by! A good Miller A or two would be really nice to have later this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 20091220 Was there some kind of good snow event around that time or something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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