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December Med/Long Range Disco


WinterWxLuvr

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GFS is nice looking Christmas eve on through the run. White Christmas with more to follow. Not saying verbatim, just more data to add to the growing consensus for a decent pattern for snow lovers after the 24th.

 

 

GEFS mean has same idea as OP... but not as strong and a tad further west in track up East Coast

 

Indeed.  Seems a couple of days earlier with that particular event compared to earlier, but that's probably splitting hairs at this point and might not mean much.  Key is, I suppose, the signal is there (and pretty strongly at this point) for that general time period.  Gotta like that.

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Yea, damn that is one sweet looking H5, if it would have come out a bit faster and didn't close off as fast that would have been pretty awesome. 

 

it's day 6-7, so anything can happen, but I hope something does happen, because it is a weekend and many of us can chase, who otherwise can't/won't take off from work, especially for an event that might not be a lock for huge snow....I want to get snow...but if I can drive 2 hours for 8-12"+, it is a no-brainer

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GFS and para both seem to be trending toward the Euro for next weekend. Both are a little faster than the Euro (12-18 hrs ?)

That's what is leading to the different ultimate evolution though, right? The Euro allows that little piece of northern energy to drop in and phase, leading to a more robust solution.The GFS "outruns" it though.

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I will probably be some place in the mountains of western VA for Xmas. Hopefully I will see some snow there. These potential storms around the 21st and 25th are pattern transition jobs, and would take near perfect evolution/timing to get a snowstorm for the coastal plain. The real deal cold looks to arrive after Xmas and then the odds go up with colder air in place, and hopefully a developing a block, for a more favorable storm track.

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Wes, one thing I noticed about the last nights euro is that more members are showing a more easterly track with a stripe of decent precip through tn/ky/central va.

The low tucking and tracking too close to the coast or just inland also gained support.....which won't be a good solution for cities/closer burbs

Mean precip bumped back up a little.

Around .35 from what I can tell.

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There are three very nice analogs in the mix. it's a really nice pattern.

Yes it sure is. Nice to see start becoming more real than a 15 day chase.

I took a quick look through the gefs and euro members for Xmas time frame. A lot of rain solutions showing up. Obviously way too far out to worry much but rain on Xmas always takes a little magic off the table.

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Yes it sure is. Nice to see start becoming more real than a 15 day chase.

I took a quick look through the gefs and euro members for Xmas time frame. A lot of rain solutions showing up. Obviously way too far out to worry much but rain on Xmas always takes a little magic off the table.

The analogs from the European ens mean do not show the same storms and in fact have a rainier look than the CPC analogs.  Glad I'm not doing an outlook until later in the week.   If the euro holds the course through tomorrow I'll probably do an article on the weekend threat especially if some of the blogosphere people start posting wxbell euro snowmaps.

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