Bob Chill Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 But you know if you look at the individual eruo ensemble membeers, there are still quite a few with a miller b look so I wouldn't jump on the euro yet. Plus I don't trust it phasing and then tracking the upper low south of us. Could happen since we're in a nino but anyone jumping on any solution this early is being silly.After looking at the euro ens I'm not really enthused about the event as a whole. Mean precip dropped a good bit and its down to .25 give or take. Yesterday it was close to .5 IIRC. I'm not jumping on any solution Tbh. My total wag is it ending up a weak non event even if it slides under us. The euro op was pretty but there are too many flags to take it seriously. If it shows that solution at 72 hours I probably won't get a lot of sleep for a few days. Lol My post about the gfs was more general and not specific to this event. It's been really jumpy so far with everything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shane M. Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 18z GFS is cold rain for the 21st, OTS for the 25th. And in the LR, GFS is Redicolously Cold. D15 it has a Snowstorm for New Orleans and parts of the gulf coast. Highs below freezing for a lot of the Florida Panhandle and lows in the single digits for some of Northern FL, Southern GA and Southern Alabama. Since when does anyone look at the 18z GFS haha EDIT: oops judging by the responses above me this has been covered lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 18z GFS finally day 10+ has our -NAO -EPO look. This will assure our precip stays snow, assuming we can get a low to track within 1000 miles of here in that pattern. That New Orleans to Savannah storm will trend north mark my words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 18z gefs is a major weenie run. Quite a few big storms on the members and pretty cold. Mean h5 looks sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 18z gefs is a major weenie run. Quite a few big storms on the members and pretty cold. Mean h5 looks sweet. Whoa really. Mean h5 is amazing in the long range. I'm sure it will work out differently, but if the pattern advertised below at 372hr showed up in a day 5-10 timeframe, we'd be seeing some epic analogs showing up. That pattern is barking SECsy MECsy. -AO/-NAO/+PNA and a piece of the polar vortex near 50/50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 14, 2014 Author Share Posted December 14, 2014 18z gefs is a major weenie run. Quite a few big storms on the members and pretty cold. Mean h5 looks sweet. And the trend is good on those members for next weekend...IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 It looks like we're moving towards the best storm pattern we've seen since Feb 2010 (obviously not nearly as sweet but still). The beginning of the pattern change hasn't been moving back at all and we're inside of 10 days in that now. What happens after keeps looking better every day that goes by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 I started tearing up with joy at this read! OMG. This just sent shivers down my spine. And since I was absent at Disney the greatest snow week ever in 2010, I've been waiting a long time for signs of this pattern to return. Knocking on wood... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Nice analogs starting to show up. Top D11 analog is within 2 days of the Xmas Eve snowstorm of 1966. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Nice analogs starting to show up. Top D11 analog is within 2 days of the Xmas Eve snowstorm of 1966. Looks like another moderate storm happened around the 28th of December in 1966. Here's the Xmas eve storm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Sheee-eet! A couple days before the #2 analog: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Weenie alert Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Weenie alert You wrote about both those storms 4 years ago: http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2010/12/a_look_back_at_big_christmas_s.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 That 01/01/1971 is rather near a big snow too.. inland snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 You wrote about both those storms 4 years ago: http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2010/12/a_look_back_at_big_christmas_s.html They're the late December weenie analogs, since thou shalt not mention December 26 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 14, 2014 Author Share Posted December 14, 2014 Sheee-eet! A couple days before the #2 analog: I remember that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Weenie alertI should probably remind people we haven't had a good storm pattern since then...so its relative.I hope u don't get too upset with partly cloudy suppression in CT while we're digging out from a K to a U Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 14, 2014 Author Share Posted December 14, 2014 Seems to me models do well at long range with southern storms (their existence) but poorly with high pressure strength and placement to the north. The late Jan storm of 10 had heights modeled way too low in the ne until about a day before the storm and the Dec 26 storm of 12 was much colder than modeled a few days out. I could be cherry picking here, but that's my observation. It will be interesting to see what the weather map to our north actually looks like next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 That 01/01/1971 is rather near a big snow too.. inland snow Not that far inland though....DC got a decent storm mixed with sleet and IAD had their biggest single storm until PD1 at 15.4". Lol that 3 of the top 4 analogs were spectacular storms for IAD and the western 'burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Not that far inland though....DC got a decent storm mixed with sleet and IAD had their biggest single storm until PD1 at 15.4". Lol that 3 of the top 4 analogs were spectacular storms for IAD and the western 'burbs. Yeah, it was 9 or so down this way I believe.. good I-81 event (when was that road built??) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Not that far inland though....DC got a decent storm mixed with sleet and IAD had their biggest single storm until PD1 at 15.4". Lol that 3 of the top 4 analogs were spectacular storms for IAD and the western 'burbs. https://books.google.com/books?id=eeM_AAAAQBAJ&pg=PA725&lpg=PA725&dq=jan+1971+snow+storm&source=bl&ots=5StLA5cSeE&sig=Xal4KNcNgD33aIJ7evmkGDYhJe0&hl=en&sa=X&ei=7fiMVO3zDovHsQTQnIHQBw&ved=0CFwQ6AEwCw#v=onepage&q=jan%201971%20snow%20storm&f=false Snow map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 https://books.google.com/books?id=eeM_AAAAQBAJ&pg=PA725&lpg=PA725&dq=jan+1971+snow+storm&source=bl&ots=5StLA5cSeE&sig=Xal4KNcNgD33aIJ7evmkGDYhJe0&hl=en&sa=X&ei=7fiMVO3zDovHsQTQnIHQBw&ved=0CFwQ6AEwCw#v=onepage&q=jan%201971%20snow%20storm&f=false Snow map I was in Cumberland for that storm (the 23" ob on that map). It was the first 20"+ storm I can recall, and played a big part in my Interest in weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 I remember that one. That is one widespread snowstorm. Seems very unusual for Upstate New York and Northern New England to get clobbered and us down here still get a nice storm out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 14, 2014 Author Share Posted December 14, 2014 Yeah, it was 9 or so down this way I believe.. good I-81 event (when was that road built??) 81 was started in the late 50's but took until the 70's to complete. I can remember construction on it when I was a kid in the late 60's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 I remember that one. Me too. I remember staring outside at church until the first snow flakes started falling. Great Christmas present. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Weenie alert Get your sleep now my friend. I'll say Tuedsay is go time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 00Z gfs looks great between Xmas and the end of the month.........If only it would verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Having an insomnia attack, yea just lovely. When it comes to a snow event, especially any potential HECS around here, sleep goes out the window! It's sheer adrenaline at that point, staying up all hours of the night following discussion and the models. Well, that and perhaps some booze at the same time helps! (ETA: Not in any way saying we're in for a HECS or anything like it with the potential events in the next couple of weeks...talking about getting little to no sleep in general when there's a big event to follow!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 00Z gfs looks great between Xmas and the end of the month.........If only it would verify. Holy -NAO!! Well, that "look" has been pretty solidly advertised for awhile now. Regardless of individual events and what happens, it sure looks downright cold heading into and beyond Christmas. Just looked quickly, but the 00Z GFS has a Christmas Day storm (ignoring 2-m temps, things look good at the mid levels...but that's only a quick glance!). Quite a signal for awhile now for this time period of something...whether we get snow out of it remains to be seen I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 GFS is nice looking Christmas eve on through the run. White Christmas with more to follow. Not saying verbatim, just more data to add to the growing consensus for a decent pattern for snow lovers after the 24th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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