T. August Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Dryslot for me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 The biggest red flag is the bulk of the precip falls with the surface at or below freezing. We don't really do that around here lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Midlevels are so dicey leading in. 0c 850 line is west of me @ 06z sunday. Dynamically driven in marginal airmass at 7 day leads. haha It's probably not right but even the other models suggest there could be some freezing precipitation out in the nothern and western hinter regions so we can hope. I'd love to have someone see accumulating snow during my week 2 from Thursday. the northern and western folks can hope for a decent solution. For me it's more of a fantasy, not likely but I can dream knowwing it's unlikely for me to get much love,. For luvr a low going to his south gives him a pretty good shot of some winter weather as long as he's not too greedy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 sunday morning chase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 At least its in the mid-range now... Day 7-8... better than waiting for Day 10 storm potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 The biggest red flag is the bulk of the precip falls with the surface at or below freezing. We don't really do that around here lately. Ya we didon't just come off a historic winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Ya we didon't just come off a historic winter it's still fall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 it's still fallDec 21 is the dead of winter. Not fall. We're running out of excuses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Dec 21 is the dead of winter. Not fall. We're running out of excuses Lowest sun angle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Lowest sun angle. Sunset is getting later.. already on the road to summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 13, 2014 Author Share Posted December 13, 2014 Sunset is getting later.. already on the road to summer. But the sun is still falling. Somebody post a total precip map for the Euro please (for the storm) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 13, 2014 Author Share Posted December 13, 2014 Seems similar in a lot of ways to the para Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 But the sun is still falling. Somebody post a total precip map for the Euro please (for the storm) Can't post Euro WxBell graphics here but ~1.1-1.2" out by you. ~1.3" DC. Higher amounts (1.5"+) just to our SW and in central VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Can't post Euro WxBell graphics here but ~1.1-1.2" out by you. ~1.3" DC. Higher amounts (1.5"+) just to our SW and in central VA. looks to start as something other than snow at BWI with probably .7-.8" qpf snow per this run EDIT: I think that's conservative, but at this distance, who cares Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 looks to start as something other than snow at BWI with probably .7-.8" qpf snow per this run Yeah, makes sense given the WxBell graphics. Something to watch is the strength and placement of the 1030 H north of the Lake Huron when the low is over VA Beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schinz Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Looks delicious. Weatherbell Euro Snow depth Graphic at 12z Monday the 22nd at 12.8 inches for Westminster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 ABOUT DEC 21 and 12z euro run The cold air supply is limited... The over all Upper air pattern not great. This is a marginal situation for the interior and rain that ends as snow for the COAST. For western NC Mtns WVA western half of VA western half of MD .. most of PA this could be a SIGNIFICANT SNOW.. COULD BE..from PHL to BOS again very mariginal on the coast...12z EURO shows wet snow or mix SIGNIFICANT SNOW Inland As I said the KEY is the DEC 17 Low ( all rain for the all fo the east coast) . It is the rapid development of the DEC 17 Low into a BIG Low over SE Canada THAT sets up the DEC 21 Low winter storm threat. ** IF the big low of SE cnada does not develop or if it moves away .. DEC 21 coastal Low ai all rain for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 end of the Euro run has signs of a re-run to the 12/21 storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Euro ensembles pretty much took the west track idea off the table. So that is good. Mean track is further east than the op. Only a couple close to the coast tracks. In general, the ensembles have an ok track but not strong like the op. The op phased with the ns shortwave. That prob had a lot to do with the strength. Overall, I think the ens run is a big net positive because the 50/50 is prominent and the west track option seems to be gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Looks like the 850's stay below freezing on the EPS from NOVA northward during the storm. At least during the 24 hour intervals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Euro ens also looks like it would be a big arctic outbreak a few days after xmas. From what I can tell it could come down the spine of the rockies first and moves east. Very cold look for much of the conus. Big -epo ridge and nao heading that way. Wow. Doesn't look like a nino pattern at all though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Euro ens also looks like it would be a big arctic outbreak a few days after xmas. From what I can tell it could come down the spine of the rockies first and moves east. Very cold look for much of the conus. Big -epo ridge and nao heading that way. Wow. Doesn't look like a nino pattern at all though. As long as it snows....Nino will probably make its mark JFM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 18z GFS is cold rain for the 21st, OTS for the 25th. And in the LR, GFS is Redicolously Cold. D15 it has a Snowstorm for New Orleans and parts of the gulf coast. Highs below freezing for a lot of the Florida Panhandle and lows in the single digits for some of Northern FL, Southern GA and Southern Alabama. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 WHY .. WHY would anyone look at the 18z regular GFS for either event? for the past 3 days every run of the " regular" GFS has shown rain and a way inland track of the Low for 12/21 and had NEVER showed any event for 12/25... since Both systems are southern systems it is natural for the GFS to screw this up the only NEWS wpuldbe of the regular GFS actually show a 12/21 cpoatal low and or 12/25 18z GFS is cold rain for the 21st, OTS for the 25th. And in the LR, GFS is Redicolously Cold. D15 it has a Snowstorm for New Orleans and parts of the gulf coast. Highs below freezing for a lot of the Florida Panhandle and lows in the single digits for some of Northern FL, Southern GA and Southern Alabama. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 DT, some hints of a -nao started this week and the signal keeps getting stronger. 12z euro ens was the best look yet at the possibility of maybe actually getting some stable blocked flow. Do you have any thoughts on this or is it just too early to say much? We really haven't had a real -nao since 2010-11. And even then is was only during Dec-jan. I don't count march 13 because I'm still trying to forget that disaster here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delijoe Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 WHY .. WHY would anyone look at the 18z regular GFS for either event? for the past 3 days every run of the " regular" GFS has shown rain and a way inland track of the Low for 12/21 and had NEVER showed any event for 12/25... since Both systems are southern systems it is natural for the GFS to screw this up the only NEWS wpuldbe of the regular GFS actually show a 12/21 cpoatal low and or 12/25 Besides the 2 systems, what do you think of the long range GFS solution of a big PV setting up in the eastern US after Christmas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 WHY .. WHY would anyone look at the 18z regular GFS for either event? for the past 3 days every run of the " regular" GFS has shown rain and a way inland track of the Low for 12/21 and had NEVER showed any event for 12/25... since Both systems are southern systems it is natural for the GFS to screw this up the only NEWS wpuldbe of the regular GFS actually show a 12/21 cpoatal low and or 12/25 it's free? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 it's free? Lol- hard to argue with that. The new gfs seems to be doing quite well with medium range. I'm probably done with the old gfs. Its consistently bringing more clouds than clarity this year. It seemed to handle last year's pattern fairly well except for the one big storm. Struggling bad so far this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Lol- hard to argue with that. The new gfs seems to be doing quite well with medium range. I'm probably done with the old gfs. Its consistently bringing more clouds than clarity this year. It seemed to handle last year's pattern fairly well except for the one big storm. Struggling bad so far this season. But you know if you look at the individual eruo ensemble membeers, there are still quite a few with a miller b look so I wouldn't jump on the euro yet. Plus I don't trust it phasing and then tracking the upper low south of us. Could happen since we're in a nino but anyone jumping on any solution this early is being silly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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