mappy Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Again, yall keep sleepin' on the 21st. I'm claiming it now. I mean, how often have I been wrong when I've started up the engine? Technically I think any storm next weekend is mine. Sorry, I've been honking the 12/19 timeframe for weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 I'm calling the Feb HECS now. Just so we're all clear. I'll bump this when necessary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 12z GFS shows more of an ice setup west of 95. Has the makings of one with the cad wedge potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 If you do a radio show on now maybe the 21st would happen. Seriously has any storm really panned out when there has been a radio show the night before. It always seems as you guys are discussing things during the show the wheels usually fell off your train. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 If you do a radio show on now maybe the 21st would happen. Seriously has any storm really panned out when there has been a radio show the night before. It always seems as you guys are discussing things during the show the wheels usually fell off your train. This is a medium to long range discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 12z GFS shows more of an ice setup west of 95. Has the makings of one with the cad wedge potential. My early guess is if something happens it's more frozen to wet than snowy.. or conversational snowy which means 0 or cartopper for me probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 My early guess is if something happens it's more frozen to wet than snowy.. or conversational snowy which means 0 or cartopper for me probably. I hear ya. At least there is a signal and something to look forward to weather wise ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Cold air seems delayed by a couple of days at the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Euro going to be further north with the 21st storm, there's a northern stream shortwave this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Euro going to be further north with the 21st storm, there's a northern stream shortwave this run. ? Day 7 http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=namer&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=sfc&va=slp&in=5&pl=cf&ft=7day&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=namer&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&ft=7day&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 12z Para GFS has a semblance of a 50/50 low but it scoots east too early. Overall, it certainly looks better than the old GFS. The 21st's chances have improved in my weenie eyes, but agree with others regarding the pattern isn't great by then and wouldn't support a big snow here. I'd love a nice 1-2" snow in the city/close in 'burbs just before Christmas. Does the para have ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Huge h5 changes on the euro. NS shortwave (that didn't exist @ 0z) is phasing with SS shortwave @ hr162. SS shortwave dug a good bit deep and is slower than 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Huge h5 changes on the euro. NS shortwave (that didn't exist @ 0z) is phasing with SS shortwave @ hr162. SS shortwave dug a good bit deep and is slower than 0z run. that day 7 map I posted showed slp in the GOM on the western tip of the FL panhandle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 1004mb over central GA at 174. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 LOL low cuts off over VA beach. 996mb there. Bombed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 LOL low cuts off over VA beach. 996mb there. Bombed! and the result to DCA/BWI is...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Pretty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Huge h5 changes on the euro. NS shortwave (that didn't exist @ 0z) is phasing with SS shortwave @ hr162. SS shortwave dug a good bit deep and is slower than 0z run. Without a cold high, that's about as good as it gets. Have a closed 500 low pass to our south. Probably wouldn't be good for me except maybe at the end but for Ji,luvr and Katie it would be a home run if it were exactly right which is doubtful so far out in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 and the result to DCA/BWI is...... Crush job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Pretty It is pretty. The southern storm track is trying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Without a cold high, that's about as good as it gets. Have a closed 500 low pass to our south. Probably wouldn't be good for me except maybe at the end but for Ji,luvr and Katie it would be a home run if it were exactly right which is doubtful so far out in time. Midlevels are so dicey leading in. 0c 850 line is west of me @ 06z sunday. Dynamically driven in marginal airmass at 7 day leads. haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Crush job. I was figuring you might say that, but I needed the confirmation 996 off ORF is just too good to be true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 NYC and philly 850mb temps are above 0c. Our whole area is at like -1c or -2c, not much margin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 oh my that's a bit obscene Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Central VA is smoked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 850 temps are close at first but they drop nicely once the storm gets going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 oh my that's a bit obscene the Euro was pretty obscene at this range with the day before T'giving storm too, soooooo..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Well lets get this a few more runs then lock this bad boy in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Sfc freezing parallels 95 basically the entire duration of the storm but 925 and 850 are below 0 during the good stuff. Can't wait to see the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.